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The Probability of Snow, or POSN, is the instantaneous probability that any precipitation that occurs will be snow. In the example below, the POSN at 1800 UTC October 18 is 10%. So if there's precipitation then, there's a 10% chance that it will be snow.
What's the actual probability of snow at that time? In that six-hour period, the probability of precipitation is 62%, so the overall chance of snow is 6%, or ten percent of 62%.
DTW EC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 10/16/96 1200 UTC DAY /OCT 16 /OCT 17 /OCT 18 / HOUR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 MN/MX 57 72 54 60 TEMP 70 70 66 62 61 59 59 65 69 69 64 61 59 57 55 56 57 55 51 DEWPT 56 56 57 57 56 55 55 56 56 55 55 54 52 51 50 49 46 44 42 CLDS SC SC SC SC BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDIR 23 23 17 18 19 18 17 17 18 17 15 15 16 19 20 21 23 23 23 WSPD 11 10 05 06 06 07 08 12 16 14 11 14 15 15 16 19 23 25 18 POP06 8 36 27 20 22 55 66 62 50 POP12 45 39 80 75 QPF 0/ 1/ 0/1 0/ 0/0 2/ 3/3 2/ 1/2 TSV06 9/ 5 23/ 3 11/ 5 7/ 4 12/10 24/ 6 20/ 7 13/ 3 12/16 TSV12 27/ 7 15/ 8 30/13 26/ 9 PTYPE R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R POZP 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POSN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 10 21 SNOW 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 CIG 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 VIS 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 OBVIS H H H H F F H H N N N N F
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