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Well, I'm dead. I'm glad this wasn't a real forecast. As you can see, the wind shifted around 00Z, and the temperature had fallen to 8.3 C (47 F) by 06Z. That's 11 degrees colder than I had expected, all because of timing error on the front.
KRAP 111855Z 15014G18KT 10SM CLR 24/13 A2941 RMK AO2 SLP939 T02390133=KRAP 111955Z 19012G18KT 10SM CLR 26/12 A2938 RMK AO2 SLP925 T02560122=KRAP 112055Z 16009KT 10SM CLR 25/12 A2934 RMK AO2 SLP910 T02500117 56034=KRAP 112155Z 11007KT 10SM FEW100 24/12 A2929 RMK AO2 SLP892 T02440117=KRAP 112233Z 23005KT 10SM TSRA BKN110 23/12 A2928 RMK AO2 TSB27RAB27 PRESFR P0000=KRAP 112246Z 25013KT 1 3/4SM TSRA BKN110 20/15 A2932 RMK AO2 TSB27RAB27 PRESRR P0003=KRAP 112255Z 29020G36KT 4SM TSRA BKN110 18/12 A2931 RMK AO2 PK WND 28036/2251 TSB27RAB27 PRESRR SLP907 P0003 T01830117=KRAP 112259Z 29018G36KT 10SM FEW055 BKN100 18/12 A2931 RMK AO2 WSHFT 2244 TSE58RAE58 PRESRR P0000=KRAP 112355Z 32012KT 10SM FEW060 BKN095 BKN110 16/13 A2930 RMK AO2 WSHFT 2244 TSE2258RAE2258B30E41 PRESRR SLP907 TS DSNT SE P0000 60003 T01560128 10267 20156 56012=KRAP 120055Z 35023G29KT 10SM CLR 12/09 A2930 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/0037 PRESRR SLP910 T01170089=KRAP 120155Z 34019KT 10SM BKN080 10/08 A2939 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/0122 PRESRR SLP944 T01000078=KRAP 120255Z 34029G34KT 10SM BKN065 OVC080 09/07 A2943 RMK AO2 PK WND 34034/0255 PRESRR SLP957 T00890072 53037=KRAP 120355Z 33024G35KT 10SM RA OVC070 08/07 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 33039/0329 RAB01 SLP967 P0001 T00830067=KRAP 120455Z 34022G32KT 10SM RA BKN085 08/06 A2945 RMK AO2 PK WND 33032/0400 SLP959 P0000 T00830061=KRAP 120555Z 34022G30KT 10SM RA FEW065 OVC095 08/06 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 34031/0508 PRESRR SLP965 P0000 60001 T00830061 10167 20083 51013=KRAP 120655Z 33019G26KT 10SM RA OVC085 07/05 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 33029/0609 SLP973 P0000 T00720050 402670072=KRAP 120755Z 33022G27KT 10SM RA BKN070 OVC090 07/04 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 34033/0735 SLP972 P0000 T00670039=KRAP 120855Z 33021G28KT 10SM RA OVC060 07/02 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 33032/0815 SLP982 P0000 60000 T00670017 53015=KRAP 120855Z COR 33021G28KT 10SM -RA OVC060 07/02 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 33032/0815 SLP982 P0000 60000 T00670017 53015=KRAP 120955Z 32016G23KT 10SM -RA OVC048 07/02 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 33030/0905 RAE06B33 SLP980 P0001 T00700017=KRAP 121055Z 33019G25KT 10SM OVC035 06/02 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 32026/1042 RAE42 PRESRR SLP987 P0000 T00560017=KRAP 121117Z 33021G26KT 10SM -RA FEW029 OVC110 05/02 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 33027/1103 RAB03 P0000=KRAP 121141Z 33021G29KT 10SM SCT055 OVC110 05/02 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 33029/1138 RAB03E41 P0000=KRAP 121155Z 33023G26KT 10SM BKN055 OVC110 05/02 A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 33029/1138 RAB03E41 PRESRR SLP999 P0000 60001 70005 T00500017 10083 20050 53005=KRAP 121255Z 33018G24KT 10SM OVC060 05/02 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 33028/1202 PRESRR SLP013 T00500017=KRAP 121355Z 33027G37KT 10SM SCT060 04/02 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 34037/1348 SLP009 T00440017=KRAP 121455Z 33032G38KT 10SM FEW065 05/02 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 32038/1455 SLP019 T00500017 51007=KRAP 121555Z 32032G42KT 10SM SCT065 06/01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 32042/1547 SLP016 T00560011=KRAP 121628Z 33031G44KT 10SM BKN025 06/01 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 33044/1625=KRAP 121655Z 32036G44KT 10SM SCT021 BKN027 BKN070 06/01 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 33048/1636 SLP025 T00560006=KRAP 121755Z 32036G44KT 10SM BKN025 OVC070 06/01 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 33044/1713 SLP026 T00560006 10056 20044 53010=KRAP 121806Z 32038G44KT 10SM SCT023 05/00 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 32044/1804=KRAP 121855Z 31034G46KT 260V330 10SM -RA BKN023 05/01 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 31046/1849 RAB47 SLP030 P0000 T00500006=KRAP 121955Z 31033G44KT 250V330 10SM BKN022 05/00 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 31045/1929 RAE30 SLP035 P0000 T00500000=KRAP 122055Z 29034G43KT 200V330 10SM OVC026 06/00 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 32048/1956 SLP042 60000 T00560000 53010=KRAP 122155Z 28030G38KT 220V010 10SM BKN028 06/00 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 30045/2116 SLP053 T00560000=KRAP 122227Z 28029G36KT 200V320 10SM SCT028 05/M01 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 31039/2211=KRAP 122255Z 36018G22KT 10SM FEW070 26/07 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP175 T02560067=KRAP 122255Z 27038G42KT 170V330 10SM FEW028 05/M01 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 32042/2254 SLP059 T00501006=KRAP 122343Z 28028G37KT 190V330 10SM BKN027 04/M01 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 31042/2256=KRAP 122355Z 27033G41KT 190V320 10SM FEW022 BKN027 04/M01 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 31042/2256 SLP083 60000 T00391006 10061 20039 53031=KRAP 130038Z 28031G41KT 140V320 10SM OVC029 04/M02 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 31044/0012 WSHFT 0017=KRAP 130055Z 28034G43KT 140V330 10SM OVC031 04/M02 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 31044/0012 WSHFT 0017 SLP091 T00391017=KRAP 130155Z 26030G37KT 110V340 10SM FEW033 SCT040 03/M01 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 30039/0101 SLP103 T00281006=KRAP 130255Z 28029G37KT 180V330 10SM FEW046 03/M02 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 25038/0158 SLP112 T00331017 53028=KRAP 130355Z 28030G38KT 160V330 10SM SCT037 03/M04 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 31045/0323 SLP125 T00281044=The rest of the forecast wasn't so bad. The temperature never got out of the low 40s during the day, as I had expected. So far tonight, two hours before the end of the period, the temperature has gotten down to 2.8 C (36 F), one degree lower than I had forecasted. The precip amount is suspicious: several hours of moderate rain, and only 0.01 inches?
To double check it, I looked at the afternoon climatological bulletin. This report usually has human intervention, and is more reliable if there is an equipment malfunction. But no, the 0.01 inches is right. That's category 1 instead of category 2, so I picked up 4 error points there. I take some solace in the thought that most people would probably have forecasted more rain than that after looking at the model. But then most people wouldn't have been stupid enough to go 58 for the high.
The tally sheet: 11 points on the max, 1 on the min, and 4 on the precip, for 16 error points altogether. Rats.
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