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My next step is to compare my tentative forecast to the National Weather Service zone forecast for Jackson:
MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>056-059>062-112145- ADAMS-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA- HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-JEFFERSON-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN- MADISON MS-MONTGOMERY-RANKIN-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER- WARREN-WASHINGTON-YAZOO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF JACKSON 420 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 1997 .TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE LOW IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY. CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES. This zone forecast is from 4:20 AM, so it's a bit old. But clearly, this zone forecast believes in persistence. They expect tomorrow to be exactly like today. I disagreed, but I'm willing to compromise from my H: 91 L: 61. I'll hedge toward the NWS and go with H: 90 L: 62.
Oh, but wait a minute. The forecast of gusty, breezy winds reminds me that the pressure gradient, and therefore the large-scale wind speed, is supposed to increase throughout the forecast period. Those stronger winds might prevent a strong temperature inversion from forming and keep the minimum temperature higher than it would be otherwise. I almost forgot about that. Better go with a forecast of H: 90 L: 65 Precip: 0.
Before you go to the next page and find out what actually happened, what's your forecast?
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