Temperatures

The TEMP line gives three-hourly forecasted temperatures (in Fahrenheit). These are useful to examine for two particular applications. First, the 1800 UTC and 2100 UTC forecasted temperatures (in the example below, both are 70 F) can be compared to the latest observations to see if the computer model is accurate so far. Second, the temperatures at the beginning and end of the forecast contest period, at 0600 UTC, may under certain circumstances be warmer than the 12-hour maximum or colder than the 12-hour minimum. This often happens if a cold front is forecasted to pass the station during the day.

In the example below, if one were making a forecast on October 16, the forecast period would start at 0600 UTC October 17, at which time the temperature is forecasted to be 61 F. This is of no concern, since the high temperature during the day is forecasted to be much warmer (72 F). At the end of the period, the temperature is forecasted to have dropped to 59 F. This is close to the previous night's minimum temperature of 57 F, and suggests that the low temperature for the period might possibly occur at the very end of the period rather than on the first night.

In general, the maximum temperatures will be higher than any listed instantaneous temperatures, and the minimum temperatures will be lower. This is to be expected, since it is rare that the extreme temperatures would occur exactly at one of the three-hourly intervals.

DTW EC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 10/16/96 1200 UTC DAY /OCT 16 /OCT 17 /OCT 18 / HOUR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 MN/MX 57 72 54 60 TEMP 70 70 66 62 61 59 59 65 69 69 64 61 59 57 55 56 57 55 51 DEWPT 56 56 57 57 56 55 55 56 56 55 55 54 52 51 50 49 46 44 42 CLDS SC SC SC SC BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDIR 23 23 17 18 19 18 17 17 18 17 15 15 16 19 20 21 23 23 23 WSPD 11 10 05 06 06 07 08 12 16 14 11 14 15 15 16 19 23 25 18 POP06 8 36 27 20 22 55 66 62 50 POP12 45 39 80 75 QPF 0/ 1/ 0/1 0/ 0/0 2/ 3/3 2/ 1/2 TSV06 9/ 5 23/ 3 11/ 5 7/ 4 12/10 24/ 6 20/ 7 13/ 3 12/16 TSV12 27/ 7 15/ 8 30/13 26/ 9 PTYPE R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R POZP 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POSN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 10 21 SNOW 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 CIG 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 VIS 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 OBVIS H H H H F F H H N N N N F

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