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The following table summarizes the model run characteristics.
Different models are appropriate for different circumstances. For example, models with higher resolution will tend to produce more accurate forecasts than models with lower resolution. We won't generally have access to all the models for our forecasts, but I'd like you to consider the relationships between model characteristics and the forecast problem of the day.
Based on these model characteristics, answer the following three questions. Assume that the current time is 21Z.
1. Which model run would be best for forecasting the position of the jet stream over Missouri at 03Z tonight?
2. Which model would be best for forecasting the development of a squall line over Texas tomorrow night?
3. Which model would be best for forecasting the development of a storm system in the Sea of Japan tomorrow?
It is usually wise to look at more than one model when making a forecast, and examine their similarities and differences. However, it is generally true that model forecasts look more like each other than like what actually happens. Don't be fooled into thinking that because two or more different models agree, nothing else is possible.
End of Part I
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