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On average, models do a good job of forecasting the weather. If your expectation of what will happen differs from the model's expectation of what will happen, you'll need to understand both the atmosphere and the model to resolve the disagreement.
- Model errors can be caused by
- analysis errors (the forecast won't be right if the analysis isn't)
- parameterizations (things the model can't simulate, but tries to anyway)
- topography (land and sea surface changes that the model can't see clearly)
- other things (I don't want to limit myself here)
The errors typically take the form of errors of position or errors of intensity. These are easy to adjust for.
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