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Consider the following hypothetical situations.
1. The morning temperature in Boston is -6 C, and the forecasted afternoon 850 mb temperature is -5 C. What will the afternoon maximum temperature be?
2. Serious warm advection in the upper Midwest tomorrow. The forecasted 850 mb temperature in Chicago at 12Z tomorrow morning is 5 C, and the forecasted 850 mb temperature at 00Z tomorrow evening is 11 C. What will the afternoon maximum temperature be?
3. The forecasted afternoon temperature at 850 mb in Denver is 2 C. What will the afternoon maximum temperature at the surface be? Trick question. Denver is about 1.6 km above sea level. So 850 mb is pretty much at ground level there. Don't try to use this method at high-altitude stations.
4. The forecasted afternoon temperature at 850 mb in St. Louis is 8 C. Rain is expected there all day. What will the afternoon maximum temperature be?
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