Biography:

Hello, my name is Wenjie Zhou Chen, and my major is Economics and International Studies Literature. I was born in Shanghai, China.

The Impact of Global Trade Policies on the Coffee Industry: A Historical and Economic Analysis

Introduction

Coffee has seamlessly woven itself into the daily routines of millions worldwide, evolving from its humble origins in the Ethiopian highlands of East Africa to become a vital global commodity that fuels the economies of numerous nations. Despite its widespread consumption, the rich history and intricate global dynamics shaping the trajectory of this beloved beverage often remain overlooked. This paper aims to shed light on the fascinating journey of coffee, tracing its historical developments from its origins to present day. Furthermore, it seeks to offer insights into the pertinent global trade policies shaping the industry's landscape, delve into its economic intricacies, and assess the profound impact of these policies on the coffee sector. Through this exploration, the paper endeavors to enhance understanding and appreciation for coffee's rich heritage and its significance in the global marketplace.

Historical Background of the Coffee Industry

According to Vega (2008), coffee beans started out as a botanical curiosity and expanded to become a worldwide staple. The flavorful beans were accorded the genus Coffea by Swedish botanist Carl Limnaeus in 1737. Consequently, coffee belongs to the Rubicae flowering plant, which comprises an estimated 600 genera and approximately 13,500 species Vega (2008). However, despite the variety of species available, only Arabica and Robusta species are commercially traded (DaMatta et al., 2008). These two species account for 99 percent of the world coffee production, with Arabica accounting for 64 percent and Robusta accounting for 36 percent (DaMatta et al., 2008). Arabica coffee is most preferred by consumers because it produces premium coffee with an intense aroma unlike Robusta that has a bitter flavor. Consequently, Arabica has a higher commercial value (Lemos, et al., 2020).

 Several historical accounts concur that coffee originated from Southwestern Ethiopia, in East Africa (Vega , 2008; Tegegn, 2022). Locals used it in community ceremonies and also as an energizer and source of food during hunting sprees in the forests (Topik, 2009). However, despite this unanimous agreement on the origin of coffee, several legends exist, attempting to explain the discovery and spread of the beverage. According to Islamic legend, the discovery of coffee is attributed to Sheik Hady Omar of Mocha, who had been living in the desert. Close to starvation and on the brink of death, he stumbled upon coffee berries, which he chewed and drank the liquid within. He felt an immediate relief (Tegegn, 2022). According to the Christian legend, the discovery of the coffee plant is attributed to a goat herder named Kaldi in Western Ethiopia. As he was herding his goats, he noted that they appeared stimulated and were behaving differently, jumping up and down (Santos et al., 2021). 

According to the oral tradition of the Kaffa people, coffee was discovered in the 2nd century AD by a shepherd in the Kaffa region of Ethiopia (Tegegn, 2022). For the Oromo people, they discovered coffee beans and began roasting and mixing them with butter for special occasions (Santos et al., 2021). On their part, Tanzania’s Haya tribe started using it as a form of currency for the purchase of goods in local markets (Topik, 2009). Over time, the popularity of coffee beans spread far and wide thanks to Arabian traders. The legends notwithstanding, historians believe that coffee trees had been growing in the dense highlands of Ethiopia shown in Figure 1 above, without cultivation for some time before their discovery (Vega , 2008).

Historians believe that coffee spread to the rest of the world from Ethiopia. According to Vega (2008) and Tegegn (2022), the Arabica coffee made its way to Yemen through Sufism practitioners in 1450. Over the next one century, its popularity spread to major cities such as Istanbul, Damascus, and Cairo. This popularity of coffee led to the emergence of coffee houses, which were a social meeting place for political and social debates (Vega, 2008). However, commercial cultivation of coffee is believed to have started in Yemen, then known as Arabia. According to historical accounts, a 1566 treatise documented that an Arabian Sheikh stated that a Mullah introduced Ethiopian coffee to Yemen in the 15th century. It was regarded as superior to a khat infusion. (Tegegn, 2022).

Upon reaching Yemen, coffee cultivation initially occurred in areas dominated by Islam, primarily for its stimulating properties, allowing Muslims to stay awake for extended periods of prayers (Gebreselassie & Ludi, 2007). With the growing popularity of the beans, Yemen Persians are believed to have introduced coffee to the rest of the Middle East and East Asia. Since then, coffee has been consumed globally in many forms (Vega , 2008). Nonetheless, the practice of grinding coffee beans and brewing them with hot water originated with Arabs in Turkey. This method transformed coffee into a beverage, a tradition that began in 1554 during the prosperous reign of Suleiman the Magnificent, the ruler of the Ottoman Empire From here, the Turks spread the popularity of coffee to Eastern Europe (Gebreselassie & Ludi, 2007).

A German named Rudolf is credited with being the first man to introduce coffee as a drink in Europe, having tasted it in Aleppo in 1573. In Italy, a local Pettro Delle Valle brought the coffee beans from Turkey in the beginning of the 17th century (Gebreselassie & Ludi, 2007). Within no time, coffee houses sprouted in major cities such as London, Rome, Paris, and Amsterdam. By 1675, there were over 3000 coffee houses in London where politicians, writers, activists, and poets would meet to discuss special interests (Gebreselassie & Ludi, 2007).

However, coffee did not make entry into America until later, when Captain John Smith of the Colony of Virginia who had been to Turkey introduced it to North America (Gebreselassie & Ludi, 2007). Unfortunately, heavy duties and taxes slowed down its popularity due to the high costs. Consequently, it did not become popular until the Boston Tea Party of 1773 where three coffee cargoes were thrown into the harbor as protests against the taxes imposed by the British colonial government. Since then, coffee became America’s favorite drink (Samoggia & Riedel, 2018). 

Global Trade Policies Related to Coffee

According to grabs and ponte (2019) study, the world coffee market has undergone tremendous changes and it is suggested that it is categorized into three major phases. First, from 1962 to 1989, during the era of the International Coffee Convention (ica) regulation, the supply of coffee worldwide increased dramatically as coffee consumption increased dramatically. But as gois et al. (2022) point out, the quest for consistency and quality was reduced during mass production. This period was characterized by ica's advancement of regulatory intervention in order to provide incentives to coffee producing countries through export quotas.

The second phase was from 1990 to 2007, which meant the disappearance of ica and the export control system, weakening the position of coffee-producing countries in the world market. Moreover, as grabs and ponte (2019) point out, this indicates that the coffee industry's concerns about fair trade were emerging and that the incomes of farmers in the same producing countries were decreasing. During this period, major events such as the rise of Starbucks in North America (samoggia riedel, 2018), the launch of coffee capsules and the emphasis on higher quality specifications (gois et al., 2022) were observed.

The third phase is the one that began in 2008, where coffee roasters adopted new strategies, with each developer adopting exclusive and innovative technologies, as well as improving the quality of their products (Grabs & Ponte, 2019). This shift has contributed to the development of the coffee market, similar to the wine industry, where the coffee industry mainly focuses on unique coffee flavors and premium coffee quality (Samoggia & Riedel, 2018).

World Trade Organization (WTO)

The WTO is an international platform for governments worldwide to discuss and execute trade agreements. While the WTO does not have specific agreements dedicated solely to coffee, its general agreements on tariffs, subsidies, and non-tariff barriers impact the trade of coffee alongside other commodities (Cole & Brown, 2014). The regulations governing the system stem from a significant overhaul of the 1947 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) (Dhillon-Penner, 2009). Nevertheless, the agricultural clauses specified in the WTO agreements do not support entirely liberalized trade, resulting in distortions in coffee prices within the trade.

As a result, Frost (2019) contends that because coffee-producing nations are mostly classified as developing or least-developed countries, neither of which is required to substantially reduce their trade-distorting practices, the coffee industry remains susceptible to government subsidies without adequate means for recourse through WTO mechanisms. Moreover, developed nations' protectionist measures restrict the ability of coffee farmers to explore crop diversification opportunities.

International Coffee Agreement (ICA)

This was a commodity agreement signed in 1962 and that lasted until 1989 when subsequent agreements were signed. It was created by coffee producing and coffee consuming nations globally with the aim of correcting two structural challenges – global coffee production and erratic price changes associated with weather changes. According to Johnson (2010), the coffee producing nations viewed the Agreement as an opportunity to secure fair prices for their coffee farmers, while coffee consuming countries viewed it as a means of shielding consumers from sudden price hikes. 

The Agreement operated by according the coffee producing nations an export quota based on a three-year average of their exported coffee. To enhance and implement this quota, ICA created the International Coffee Organization (ICO), which is the only intergovernmental organization for coffee globally, bringing together coffee producing and coffee consuming nations (ICO, n.d.). ICO apportioned voting rights to the signatory countries on the basis of percentage, with the producers and consumers each possessing 50 percent. Through this equalized voting rights, consuming nations achieved their political and economic objectives.

According to Gebreselassie & Ludi (2007), the political aim was the stabilization of coffee societies in Latin America through Alliance for Progress and the prevention of unhappy small-scale farmers from embracing communist ideologies. On the other hand, the economic aim was the utilization of the quota arrangement to mitigate price fluctuations common in international coffee trade due to excess production and surplus supply shocks (Gebreselassie & Ludi, 2007). Since its establishment in 1962, ICO has continued to exist under successive agreements, with the mission of enhancing the global coffee sector to foster its sustainable growth within a market-driven framework for the benefit of all involved stakeholders. Today, ICO represents 93 percent of coffee production globally and 63 percent of global coffee consumption (ICO, n.d.).

However, in 1989, ICA’s economy-related clauses were suspended due to inadequate support from developed countries and the misuse of the quota system by coffee-producing countries. As a result, without the limitations imposed by quotas, developing countries inundated the market with stored coffee and escalated their local production. This surge in supply led to a substantial decrease in the market value of coffee. Farmers bore the brunt of this price drop, while coffee roasters and middlemen enjoyed a wider selection of beans at lower prices (Dhillon-Penner, 2009). Under the ICA, the price of coffee ranged from $.95 to $1.60 per pound, depending on the variety. However, after the suspension of the ICA's economic clauses, prices plummeted to between $.50 and $.80 per pound (Dhillon-Penner, 2009). This left coffee producers to navigate the challenges of a liberalized market environment independently.

Policies implemented by coffee-producing nations vary widely but often focus on supporting and regulating the coffee industry to maximize economic benefits. These policies may include subsidies and incentives, price stabilization mechanisms, export regulations, infrastructural investment, research and development, environmental regulations, and trade agreements and partnerships. These policies influence the capability of other coffee-producing countries to compete in the market. For instance, Dhillon-Penner (2009) observes that between its inception in the coffee market and its 2007 joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), Vietnam heavily reduced the cost of its coffee market, guaranteeing the prosperity of its industry despite price fluctuations.

However, such policies present two main issues: firstly, they encourage excessive production by the nation providing subsidies, as farmers no longer base their production decisions on market signals; secondly, they put farmers from other coffee-producing nations, unless supported by their respective governments, are placed at a disadvantage. This situation forces the competing nations to make a decision: either subsidize their coffee industry or risk its failure (Dhillon-Penner, 2009).

Economic Analysis of the Global Coffee Industry

Coffee is the second-most traded commodity in the world after oil (Worku, 2023) and the most valuable traded commodity globally (DaMatta et al., 2008). In 2021, coffee accounted for an estimated export worth USD 36.3 billion, and is a major source of foreign currency for over 80 nations across the world (Worku, 2023; Al-Abdulkader et al., 2018). Due to its expansive nature and popularity that has seen 40 percent of the global population consume coffee, the global coffee industry provides employment to an estimated 100 million people, and livelihood to at least 25 million farmers (Worku, 2023).

According to Mussatto et al. (2011) and DaMatta et al. (2008), Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia are the top four coffee producers globally, collectively contributing to over half of the world's coffee supply. Brazil has dominated the global coffee supply since 1840 (Santos et al., 2021). Regionally, South America, Asia, Central America, and Africa account for 43,24, 18, and 16 percent of the global coffee supply respectively (Worku, 2023). This is collaborated by Figure 3, indicating that South America is the leading coffee producer in the world.

According to DaMatta et al. (2008), an estimated 70 percent of the global coffee production is cultivated on small farms less than 10 hectares, thus operating like family business maintaining an estimated 25 million people globally. In terms of trade, the global coffee industry involves about 500 million people, from cultivation to the final product.  In terms of consumption, Poole et al. (2017) notes that coffee ranks among the most widely consumed beverages across the globe, with 400 million cups of coffee being consumed annually globally (Utrilla-Catalan et al., 2022). As shown in the table below, Europe is the leading consumer of coffee.

Economic Factors Influencing the Coffee Industry

Supply and Demand Dynamics

The global coffee supply chain is characterized by a growing demand for coffee and an uncertain supply, thus affecting sustainability. It is known through the International Coffee Association report that coffee consumption in Asia, Oceania and Africa grew faster than other regions, also representing an increase in demand at that time (Poole et al., 2017). However, the International Coffee Association (ICA) also noted that the reduction in the global supply of the commodity was due to a decline in production in South America, mainly by 3.2% in 2019/2020 (Al-Abdulkader et al., 2018).

The protocol describes several reasons for the decline in production, mainly climate change, as affecting the quality and yield of coffee beans (Kath et al., 2021). It has to be said that uncontrollable factors such as increased temperatures, unpredictable rainfall and diseases affect the production of Arabica coffee in many parts of the world (Davis et al., 2012). With small-scale farmers in developing companies owning majority of the coffee farms, they lack the capacity to adapt to adverse climatic changes due to lack of knowledge, capital, and technology (Bielecki & Wingenbach, 2019). 

In light of these developments, ICA cautions that if these climate changes persist, Arabica coffee, constituting 70 percent of the global coffee supply could reduce by at least 50 percent by 2088 (FAO, n.d.). As a result, farmers will experience reduced income, and there will be a shortage of bean supply for coffee beverage companies.

Market Structure

Components of market structure such as concentration, vertical integration, and competition affect the global coffee industry. The coffee industry exhibits different levels of market concentration, with a few big companies dominating different segments of the value chain and exploiting the market that has no regulation or quota system (Frost, 2019). Primarily consumed in the affluent global North, the cultivation of coffee is confined to the equatorial regions of the global South, where rural farmers in some of the world's poorest nations labor (Frost, 2019). However, rather than fostering redistribution, the wealth generated by coffee largely remains within the Northern hemisphere, enriching multinational coffee corporations, producers, and chains. Despite relying on this commodity as the cornerstone of their businesses, these entities often pay disproportionately low prices to the growers (Levy et al., 2016).

Vertical integration is also a key market structure component affecting the global coffee industry. Vertical integration in the global coffee industry refers to the ownership or control of multiple stages of the coffee supply chain by a single entity, encompassing coffee cultivation, processing, distribution, and retail. This strategy allows companies to streamline operations, exert greater control over quality and consistency, capture more value-added, and potentially gain a competitive advantage (Utrilla et al., 2022). Companies in this industry are vertically integrated, with vertical integration representing ownership or control of various parts of the supply chain, among them coffee farms, processing facilities, distribution networks and retail outlets. For example, companies such as Neumann Kaffee Gruppe (NKG) and ECOM Agroindustrial Corp. have investments in different coffee farms in different production locations, which ensures a stable supply of coffee beans (Frost, 2019), so vertical integration is something that can influence market competition, pricing strategies and access to resources.

Despite centralization and vertical integration, the coffee industry is still very competitive, in that many competitors compete on product quality, branding, pricing, and distribution channels. The most common of these are coffee producers, who will have carved out niches by emphasizing unique flavors, ethical sourcing practices, and direct relationships with consumers (Gois et al., 2022). As well as coffee retailers are also focusing on raising the standard of their products and services in order to expand their market share. In the midst of intense competition, business deployment includes many programs, among which are various strategies including production, research and development (R&D), business models, customer engagement and innovation (Frost, 2019). In this environment, companies in pursuit of differentiation direct their investments towards innovation, production and technology in the hope that they can create unique flavors that consumers will enjoy (Frost, 2019; Gois et al., 2022).

 In addition to this, they are constantly exploring novel business models so as to facilitate adaptation to more is consumer preferences and market trends, which can also increase customer loyalty and satisfaction (Frost, 2019). Many companies realize the importance of fostering a culture of innovation, so they will constantly look for new ways to improve as well as introduce more sustainable practices for the development of breakthrough products so that they can be favored by more consumers (Grabs & Ponte, 2019). Through a multifaceted strategy, coffee retailers need to not only maintain their competitiveness, but also strengthen their market position for long-term growth.

Impact of Global Trade Policies on the Coffee Industry

Global trade policies can affect various aspects of the coffee industry. For example, trade policies can affect coffee production through subsidies, tariffs on inputs, and land use regulations (Nelson, 2005). So trade policies may indirectly affect agriculture and technology, leading to changes in productivity and output levels (Cole & Brown, 2014). On the other hand, tariffs, quotas, etc. imposed by importing countries can affect the access of coffee-producing countries to the market, leading to changes in export volumes and revenues (Cole & Brown, 2014). Similarly import tariffs and quality standards are both key in influencing the cost and availability of imported coffee in the consumer market.

The competitive dynamics aspect of the coffee industry is inseparable from trade policies, which all affect various aspects such as pricing mechanisms, market access and regulatory compliance costs (Narayana, 2004). Freedom of trade is key to leading to more competitive markets. One of these is the removal of trade barriers, leading to a more open and accessible global market, which can make it easier for coffee producers and exporters to join the new world market, and again this can lead to increased competitiveness as well as supply chain innovation (Russell et al., 2012).

But it has to be said that government protection measures can also lead to some uncontrollable consequences for domestic coffee producers. Although protection measures are used to protect the domestic coffee industry from receiving unhealthy competition from foreign countries, they also lead to a lack of competitiveness, innovation, and increased costs for consumers, which can also lead to less upside for domestic coffee producers (Russell et al., 2012). Where for example export taxes imposed by producing countries such as Vietnam lead to an increase in supply as well as push up global prices, as well as import tariffs imposed by consuming countries lead to an increase in the cost and supply of imported coffee (Frost, 2019). These tariffs serve the important purpose of raising the price of imported coffee, thereby limiting market access for coffee-producing countries. In the case of higher prices and restricted markets, this leads to lower export volumes and lower revenues.

Trade policies also affect quality standards and sustainability in the coffee industry. As an importing country, there are generally stringent standards and certification requirements to ensure food safety, traceability and sustainability (Lerner and Pereira, 2021). These standards may increase costs as well as time for coffee producers, though they can also increase market requirements and consumer confidence. According to a study by defries et al (2017), promoting sustainable trade policies and encouraging environmentally friendly production practices such as fair trade can both improve market access and price premiums for coffee.

In addition, trade policy interventions can have an impact on the coffee industry. For example, the removal of import tariffs on coffee under the CAFTA-DR agreement has contributed to increasing the volume of coffee exports to the United States (Cole & Brown, 2014). The removal of agricultural subsidies in exporting countries, such as Brazil, can increase the cost of coffee cultivation, leading to an increase in global coffee prices (Bielecki & Wingenbach, 2019). So generally adopting sustainable trade policies will increase the market demand and premium for certified coffee, which will allow trade policies to have a good impact (Worku, 2023).

Conclusion

Around the world, people are becoming more and more fond of coffee. The ensuing "coffee culture" fills every moment of life. This paper looks at the coffee industry from an economic perspective, including the evolution of the industry from its origins in Ethiopia to its current global importance, and describes the historical legacy, economic imperatives and policy frameworks that have shaped the global coffee industry. It also examines the impact of international trade policies, such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), which encompasses the multifaceted impacts of global trade policies, including markets, pricing, and sustainable development. Finally coffee culture is an increasingly popular culture that over time has become a delicacy to be appreciated, enjoyed and savored. A deeper understanding of coffee is gained through understanding the multiple dimensions of historical heritage, economic dynamics and the policy frameworks used.

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