Emergence: Theory, examples and modeling.
Dana Polojarvi, Ivan Taylor, Gary Vincent
Presentation: Engineering Sustainable Social Systems for Earth's Future (Dana Polojarvi)
Abstract. Building on a descriptive system dynamics model of socio-ecological interaction over time, this presentation will engage with several theories of socio- ecological systems evolution and emergence: world systems theory, a theory of human institutional evolution, scaling theory, some networking, etc. We will also look at some of the ways the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals fit into this overall picture as outputs of emergent systems.
Modeling Emergence in Complex Natural and Social Systems - Three Models, Four Examples (Ivan Taylor)
A) Two models will be presented related to issues around structural racism in North America. The first model is Agent-Based that demonstrates the dynamics of segregation in a community with properties of emergence. The second model is based on System Dynamics that demonstrates the impact of bias in the hiring and promoting processes on diversity in an organization. (This demonstrates emergence but does not relate to a natural system).
B) Two identical System Dynamics models will be presented for two very different purposes. The first is the classic predator-prey model from nature concerning hares and lynx on a small island. The second is a model of insurgency dynamics in a Middle Eastern country.
Swarm Decision Making (Gary Vincent)
Gary will examine how swarm systems identify, evaluate, and select among alternative solutions to a problem in the absence of centralized control, and potential application of these techniques to human-designed systems.
Biographies
Dana Polojärvi, PhD, is Professor of Humanities and Communications at the Maine Maritime Academy. His current research interests are in socio-environmental systems theory and practice. He teaches courses on the cultural roots of the current world system, including the rise and fall of cultures, that are geared toward better
understanding of resilience over time.
Ivan Taylor founded Policy Dynamics in 2001 as a management consulting firm specializing in applications of System Dynamics modeling and simulation. He has been a member of the System Dynamics Society since 1997 and acts as a one-on-one mentor for the society working with young people all over the World. He spent 33 years
as a public servant working in the Operational Research Center of Defence Research and Development Canada.
Gary Vincent is a Senior Principal Systems Engineer with Northrop Grumman Defense Systems, and has over twenty years’ experience conducting systems engineering for distributed simulation and command & control systems. In a previous life he was an Air Weapons Director in the United States Air Force, and was twice published in Airpower Journal, the professional journal of the Air Force. He is an INCOSE CSEP, and holds a B.S. in Aeronautical Engineering from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, an M.S. in Information Systems from Northeastern University, and a Master of Architecture from the University of New Mexico.