Deciding Whether Something is True or False
Imagine if you received the following email:
Dear ...
If you will open your front door on July 13th at 3am, I will give you a million dollars to spend in any way you choose.
Sincerely,
John Smith
What would go through your mind if you received such an email? I suspect not many people would follow the email's instructions. I'd like to use this email to explore how to decide whether something is true or false. Frequently following 1 or 2 of the following steps is all that's necessary, but sometimes determining the truth is a little more difficult.
As you begin to read the message, you may come across obviously false statements or exaggerations, even in the title. Many messages come from people so determined to convince you of something that they feel little inaccuracy or exaggeration is justified if they can get one more person to believe or buy. This quickly helps you to determine how credible the writer is and whether immediately hitting the delete button is the appropriate final step.
When deciding the truth of anything, the next step is probably to consider our feelings. While not necessarily conclusive, our initial "gut check" is a good way of telling us whether the message feels right or wrong. Even if we can't put our finger on exactly why, we can often come to a quick and reasonably safe conclusion that we should either believe the message, not believe it, or that we need to take more time to think things through.
Related to our gut check is to consider whether the claim is consistent with those principles we hold to be true. Principles are nuggets of truth that never change and we develop an understanding of these throughout our lives. For example, one commonly held principle is that we should treat others as we'd want to be treated. If whatever we're considering violates one or more of the principles as we understand them, we probably have our conclusion. While it's possible one of our principles is flawed and needs to be reconsidered, it's more likely they will provide a useful filter on our reasoning.
The next step is probably to consider the probable costs versus probable benefits. In this case, my experience suggests that it's very unlikely anyone would give away a million dollars to me. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but it's probably enough for me to delete the message immediately.
The next step would be to consider the sender. If it's someone I know, who happens to have a great deal of money and has done similar things in the past, the credibility of the email goes up significantly.
I happen to know that it's relatively easy to send an email that appears to come from any name I choose, so that's something to consider as well. Can we determine with accuracy the identity of the sender.
It's also wise to consider our biases. Everyone has a whole collection of biases that may get in the way of deciding the truth of something. It's important that we understand our own biases so we can see through them to the truth of the matter.
One particular bias deserves further exploration, which is the bias against discovery that something we've taken as truth is actually false or that something we've taken as false is actually true. This bias can be very strong for the following reasons:
- It can be embarrassing to make mistakes especially if those mistakes become public. In other words, our own pride can become an unacceptable cost.
- Some beliefs affect our actions in major ways and changing the belief may be seriously disruptive to our lives.
- Some beliefs, if proven false, can be seriously disruptive to our relationships. People generally like to associate with people of like beliefs.
- Some beliefs, if proven false, can destroy our confidence in sources we previously relied upon.
With this example, most people would have come to a conclusion rather quickly, but with many questions it can be useful to consult with sources of truth that have been reliable in the past. For example, we may know someone with knowledge in an area we lack. Even if not, another person may have different biases and blind spots and can help us neutralize our own.
Related to considering past sources of truth, it can be useful to consider how many witnesses or supporters of a particular position exist related to the issue at hand. When considering witnesses or supporters it's important to consider their credibility (e.g., biases) along with what they are actually saying.
The last step on my list is to consider all other evidence that may exist for the message being true or false. This is where we might put the scientific method, which is a methodical approach to determining truth using systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses. Such a rigorous analysis may not always be practical, but has been very valuable for understanding the world we live in and making our lives better. At the very least it can help us evaluate claims in areas where the method applies. For example, with health-related claims you can evaluate studies to see if they exhibit any understanding of, let alone compliance with, the scientific method.
It's important to realize that no matter how smart we are or how good our methodology is for determining truth, it may lead is to the wrong conclusion. We must be humble enough to realize this and open to the possibility of being wrong, at least in part. In addition, there may be some truth in the claim that is valuable, even if it's not completely true or the source is unreliable.
Below is a summary of the steps described above:
- Are there obvious false statements or exaggerations?
- What do our feelings tell us?
- Is it consistent with our principles?
- What are the potential costs and benefits of believing the message versus not believing the message?
- Does our experience suggest the message could be authentic?
- How certain is it that the source of the message is authentic?
- Does the source of the message have any biases?
- Does the source have an interest other than communicating truth (e.g., salesman)?
- Has the source lied to us before?
- Consider our own biases, particularly the fear of having our lives disrupted.
- Consider the words of other information sources who in the past have been reliable sources of truth
- Consider the words of witnesses or supporters related to the issue at hand
- What evidence exists either for or against?
- Consider that our conclusion may still be wrong no matter how intelligent we are and how good our methodology is?
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