Folkard states:
State 1: E side weak at top and at base; Letters normal.
State 2: E side stronger; 'Postage' and value compressed; J thinner; E side of NE square thicker; base line thicker.
Based on the imprimatur and two perforated state 2s.
So far, so good. However there is a complication with this position in that 169 TJ is very close to the later states of 173. Care also needs to be exercised with 134, which is also close. Also, I think that there is strong possibility that there are three states of 173 in this position. Some stamps fall into place reasonably well, others less so. I have tried to draw up a chart to show the main differences which can be downloaded by clicking here.
134 is a little out and should not cause too much of a problem. 169 is closer, but we have some good images of this position. Martin Willcox's example with part of the marginal inscription nails this one.
Sorting out the states of 173 is problematic. At least I am finding it so! I probably have things wrong, but I come up with not three states but four. I don't know what to do with my group A stamps.
The last group is non-coincident, which matches Folkard's description of his state 2. It looks as if the impression has been applied slightly rotated clockwise and/or slightly to the right. If Perkins Bacon were true to their word, they would have hardened the plate after the repair in March 1854 which could account for the large number of the later state.
Looking into the Perkins Bacon printing records, the record for Smith coincides with the early life of 173. He printed from 19 August 1853 to 18 October 1853 (19,600 sheets), 28 October 1853 to 26 November 1853 (10,400 sheets) and 10 December 1853 to 6 February 1854 (18,600 sheets). It is tempting to assume four states, but I cannot state with any certainty that this is correct. Only that it seems to fit.
Comment: any plate 173s found with pin variety S&S2 will show the penultimate state of the plate.
I have come to the end of my skill level and would welcome any further comments and material for this interesting position.
Imprimatur
State 1
[Michael Swinyard]
State 2
State 3
[Scott Treacy]
[Devlan Kruck]
[Ian Wright]
[Mike Swinyard]
Group A
Plate 134
Plate 169
Large image [Scott Treacy]
[Martin Willcox]
[David Lewthwaite]
[Scott Treacy]
[Michael Swinyard]
AP
October 2015