Martin K. van Ittersum, Wageningen University
Meet: https://meet.google.com/niy-gtpk-sro
YouTube Stream: https://youtube.com/live/KLmoGaDWMNk
Join group to receive calendar invite: https://groups.google.com/a/modelingtalks.org/g/talks
Abstract:
Some 54% of the world’s population increase until 2050 will occur in sub-Saharan Africa, while the region has also the highest incidence of malnutrition. Its food demand is projected to double between 2020 and 2050. Previous assessments of SSA’s potential to achieve cereal self-sufficiency were pessimistic. Here we show self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020, despite a 29% increase in population, due to area expansion, changes in grown cereal crops and yield increases. The larger baseline area in 2020, a larger share of maize and lower projected population increase make achieving cereal self-sufficiency by 2050 more feasible. Yet, large yield gains are needed to avoid further import dependency and cropland expansion which is detrimental for biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions.
Further reading:
Van Ittersum, M. K., S. Alimagham, J. V. Silva, S. Adjei-Nsiah, F. P. Baijukya, A. Bala, R. Chikowo, P. Grassini, H. L. E. de Groot, A. Nshizirungu, A. Mahamane Soulé, T. B. Sulser, G. Taulya, F. Amor Tenorio, K. Tesfaye, S. Yuan and M. P. van Loon (2025). "Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122(24): https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2423669122
Alimagham, S., van Loon, M. P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Adjei-Nsiah, S., Baijukya, F., Bala, A., Chikowo, R., Silva, J. V., Soulé, A. M., Taulya, G., Tenorio, F. A., Tesfaye, K., & van Ittersum, M. K. (2024). Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Agronomy, 155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2024.127137
Van Ittersum, M.K., van Bussel, L.G., Wolf, J., Grassini, P., van Wart, J., Guilpart, N., Claessens, L., de Groot, H., Wiebe, K., Mason-D'Croz, D., Yang, H., Boogaard, H., van Oort, P.A., van Loon, M.P., Saito, K., Adimo, O., Adjei- Nsiah, S., Agali, A., Bala, A., Chikowo, R., Kaizzi, K., Kouressy, M., Makoi, J.H., Ouattara, K., Tesfaye, K., Cassman, K.G., 2016. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 113 (52), 14964-14969.
Bio:
Martin van Ittersum holds a PhD in Agricultural and Environmental Science from Wageningen University. He is a professor at the Plant Production Systems group of the same university. His research and teaching focus on research concepts and methods for the analysis, design and integrated assessment of agricultural systems from field to farm, regional and global level. He has led and is leading a large number of (inter)national projects dealing with global food availability, integrated assessment of agricultural systems, yield gap analysis, phosphorus scarcity, climate change and circular food systems. He was the co-chair of the 1st , 4th and 5th editions of the International Conference on Global Food Security. In 2015 and 2016 he was the interim chair of the Farming Systems Ecology group at Wageningen University. Since September 2022 he is visiting professor of the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. He has been nominated a highly-cited researcher (Clarivate) from 2015 to 2025 and has (co-)authored over 250 papers in international scientific journals.