Assessing the socioeconomic benefits of the net-zero emission transition
D'Maris Coffman @ University College London
Dabo Guan @ University College London
Abstract:
We will first introduce the development of CEADs (Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets for Emerging Economies, http://www.ceads.net), which has improved the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions accounting method by consideration of variations in energy fuel qualities and by compilation of emission accounts for 60+ emerging economies where the data is lacking. CEADs develops emission database for global key infrastructure at the plant level. CEADs generates free, transparent, verifiable database whilst other data agencies cannot provide. We will then discuss a novel disaster footprint modelling framework to account for direct and indirect impact cascading along regional and global supply chains. We will use large-scale flooding and global pandemic as examples to illustrate this method for disaster footprint analysis.
Bios:
Professor Dabo Guan holds a joint Chair of Climate Change and Low Carbon Transition between University College London (UCL), UK and Tsinghua University, China. He is the Fellow of Academy of Social Sciences, UK. He specialises in environmental economics for international climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, scenario analysis on environmental impacts, water resources accounting and management, input-output modelling and their applications in both developed and developing countries. He was a Lead Author for the IPCC AR5. He was the Highly Cited Researcher for 2018-2021, top thousand climate academics (rank 389 in 2020). He has authored over 260+ publications, including 60+ articles published Nature, Nature Research Journals, and PNAS. He received the PNAS Cozzarelli Prize 2014, the Leontief Prize 3 times and the Philip Leverhulme Prize. His paper about climate change impact on beer consumption received the 2018 Altimetric Top 100 award.
Professor Coffman is the Director (Head of Department) of the Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction and the Professor in Economics and Finance of the Built Environment at the Bartlett. She is Editor-in-Chief and Coordinating Editor of Elsevier's Structural Change and Economic Dynamics and on the honorary editorial boards of The Journal of Cleaner Production, Economia Politica, and the editorial boards of Frontiers of Engineering Management and the Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment. In December 2021, Professor Coffman was elected Distinguished Visiting Professor at the Department of Earth System Science at Tsinghua University. She is also a Visiting Professor at the University of Milan (Statale), a Guest Professor at Beijing Institute of Technology, and a Visiting Professor of Renmin University of China. Professor Coffman's current interests span infrastructure, construction, and climate change. She works at the interstices of economic geography, economic history and infrastructure economics and has authored over 100+ publications across these fields.
Papers:
Summary:
Focus: Impact of disasters on socio-economy
Climate change will affect food security
Lower yield for rice, wheat and other crops
Disaster footprint
Direct economic impact of disaster:
Destruction of property,
Disruption of power, water, etc.
Indirect impact:
Disrupted transportation, supply chains
Reduced economic production
Drivers of production affected by disasters:
Labor: dead, injured people
Capital:
Direct: damage to factories, facilities,
Labor impact: roads (people who can’t arrive at work), houses
Impact over time: severe initially, reduces over time
Goal is to recover to pre-disaster levels but sometimes the impact is very long-term (e.g. Fukushima)
Team has been modeling disaster footprint
2015 flooding of Yorkshire and Humber region
Indirect damage roughly equal to direct damage
Model is based on global or regional trade dynamics
Industries that interact more (e.g. business support) have more indirect damage
2009 Central European floods
Direct damage estimated from insurance (Munich RE)
Examined affected population, crop and urban area
Quantified direct damage to various sectors
Predict indirect damage by sector and recovery dynamics
Impact of COVID control measures on global supply chains
Compared different lockdown policies
Looked at propagation of impacts over trade network
Stricter/short-term restrictions had less impact on trade
Data
International trade matrix reported by various countries
E.g. US has 500 different sectors and a trade matrix
Based on surveys
Focus: macro country-level analysis
Currently working on finer granularity analysis