Bob Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy
Abstract:
The human-earth system—including settlements, infrastructure, natural resources, socioeconomics, and interdependent sectors and natural systems—is highly complex and continuously changing, with climate stressors and influences shaping it in myriad, often unanticipated ways, from local to global scales. The Department of Energy’s research in MultiSector Dynamics seeks to advance scientific understanding of these complex interactions and the resulting co-evolutionary pathways of the components and the integrated system. Insights and tools emerging from MultiSector Dynamics hold significant potential to inform next-generation infrastructure and more resilient socioeconomic and environmental systems. Advanced modeling, data, and analysis tools address a broad range of topics, ranging from coastal resilience and energy transitions and security to urban morphology and the critical connections among energy, water, and land (e.g., agriculture) systems. Both gradual and abrupt changes induced by slow acting forces and system shocks are of interest.
DOE Multisector Dynamics Program
https://multisectordynamics.org Community
Bio:
Bob Vallario is a Program Manager in Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, U.S. Department of Energy. Bob manages a broad portfolio of basic research in Multisector Dynamics. He has a 31-year history with DOE and prior experience working for a DOE national laboratory and a major scientific consulting company. His leadership has extended to numerous DOE-wide and interagency activities, from Secretarial initiatives at the energy-water nexus to specific activities within the National Science and Technology Council and the US Global Change Research Program.
Summary
Multisector dynamics: 30 years old
Suite of tools for various types of planners
Physical and Natural Systems coupled with Economics
Useful for strategic planning
Early work on climate and its anthropogenic and natural forcings
2009-2016 - pivot to impacts of weather extremes on human systems
2016-present - comprehensive multi-sector modeling of climate/society
Current work:
Funded Office of Science in Department of Energy
Earth and Environmental System Sciences Division
Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling (EESM)
Climate models
Multi-sector dynamics
Interacting models
E3SM climate model: atmosphere, ocean, river, land, humans, sea ice, land ice
Multi-sector dynamics models
Regional analyses and models
Strategic objectives
Understanding driving forces and patterns
Stable/unstable points
Foresight into the future
Currently writing many reports to document impacts of climate change on various components of society
Flooding, droughts, coasts, urban systems
Uncertainty quantification
2020 Multisector dynamics vision report: https://multisectordynamics.org/vision/
Focus Domains:
Coastal dynamics
Integrated Water cycle
Connectected infrastructure
Urban landscapes/Morphology
Resource development (e.g. shipping)
Efforts
Individual models
Coupling frameworks
Data driven fusion methods
Telescoping precision
Example groups:
MultiSector Dynamics working groups
AI/ML work is very active in the MSD community
Numerous experts including Pat Reed
Model coupling:
They’re working on general techniques and inter-operable schemas
Error propagation
Uncertainty quantification
Inter-model comparison
Models don’t make concrete predictions but rather help to understand the overall dynamics
Quantify system’s resilience to stimuli
Understand inflection points/key sensitivities
Discover major types of scenarios to analyze
Connect relationships between different aspects of the system (e.g. population and pollution are positively connected)
Goal: put probability bounds on their predictions
They’re building science capabilities and tools to help science translators (e.g. Army Corps of Engineers, EPA, regional utilities, NOAA) create capabilities for decision-makers
Opportunity to interact:
Their available model predictions and geographically oriented open source tools could be useful for various government and commercial online mapping platforms, such as Google Maps
Each system (e.g. power grid, watershed) has own native scale
Represent interactions across systems and scales