Abstract:
Current economics-only models are limited by assuming that the “output gap” today is similar to those in the past. In contrast, our integrated economics-epidemiological-geographic structural model captures numerous interactions, including the “indirect” effect of how people are predicted to change their social distancing practices as other people get vaccinated (i.e., the non-pecuniary externality effect). The model incorporates a lot of microlevel datasets (including Google data) at a fairly fine-grained geographic level to capture local social distancing practice, local industry, local demographics, local population concentration, and many other key local variables, which we can then aggregate up to also show national-level results. The model incorporates statistical methods to separate causality from correlation in the previous pandemic data.
Bios:
Kent Smetters is the Boettner (pronounced “Bet-Nur”) Chair Professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, a Faculty Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Faculty Director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, and member of the Penn Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Group. Previous positions include the Congressional Budget Office, the Kaiser Visiting Professor of Economics at Stanford, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of the United States Treasury. He received his PhD in Economics from Harvard University.
Alex Arnon came to the Penn Wharton Budget Model with a background in public policy analysis and economic research. Prior to joining Penn, he worked as an analyst at the Congressional Budget Office.
John Ricco is an economic analyst specializing in tax policy and urban economics. He is responsible for developing and maintaining PWBM’s tax module used to project the budgetary and distributional impacts of tax reform proposals. In the past John has worked at the International Monetary Fund.