Story 10

BY THE PERCENTAGES, PART II

By Brad Carmichael

In the last article, the concept of percentages was discussed at length. An optimal way to maximize the percentages on many hands is to combine chances. Sometimes this can come at the expense of another obvious line. Consider this hand from a regional open pairs at the Kansas City NABC:

  S: K  H: AKJTxx  D: Tx  C: Qxxx.

With both opponents silent throughout, partner opens 1S and you bid 2H game forcing. Next, he bids 2NT, to which you bid 3H. The next bid is Roman Keycard blackwood, and you respond 5H (2 key cards without the queen). Soon you are in 6H, LHO leads the diamond queen and here is the dummy:

                                                            S: AQxxx

                                                            H: xx

                                                            D: AKx

                                                            C: Axx

You have arrived in a decent slam, your minimum hand notwithstanding. So, what is the best line of play? Spades 4-3 is about 62%, the heart finesse about 50%, and additional chances may present themselves later. Let’s assume we take the heart finesse and it’s off (since finesses always seem to fail when we need them). Surely, a diamond will be returned. Now the spades are blocked and we only have a single dummy entry and can no longer play for spades 4-3. I propose unblocking the spade King, then Cashing the AK of hearts. If the queen shows up, the slam is made, and 4-3 spades will net an overtrick.

As it happens, no queen appears, so you concede the heart queen. Indeed, the diamond jack is returned, pinning your ten. That is OK, you are now in dummy. Unfortunately, LHO discards a diamond on the spade ace. So you play the queen of spades discarding another club and ruff the fourth spade in your hand. Anything to do now?

Try cashing your last two trumps. On the lead of the last trump, the position is as follows:

                                                            S: --

                                                            H: --

                                                            D: x

                                                            C: Ax

S: --                                                                                                      S: J

H: --                                                                                                    H: --

D: 9                                                                                                      D: --

C: Kx                                                                                                    C: JT

                                                            S: --

                                                            H: T (led)

                                                            D: --

                                                            C: Qx

When diamonds were 6-2, West was finished. The last heart lead generates a positional squeeze. In practice, West pitched a club, so declarer tossed a diamond from dummy. With the King now bare, the ace and queen of clubs scored trick 12 and 13 for +1430.

As it happens, two lines were about 50% or better, but when chances are able to be combined, the parlay of plays to choose from often brings out a more productive line. On this hand, maybe the least likely scenario of a positional minor suit squeeze was the only way to make the hand.