Should the new COVID variant affect plans for hybrid learning? 

More contagious, and a recent announcement by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggesting that it is also more deadly, the new B117 strain may delay hybrid learning even further with Manila being one of the Philippines’s COVID-19 hotspots.

Like any virus, SARS-CoV-2 has the tendency to go through small changes in its genetic code as it infects different people. This means that the more people it infects, the higher the probability of the virus mutating into a deadlier variant becomes, as seen with the B117-- which is estimated to be 70% more contagious, and according to this report by BBC, now also 30% more deadly. 

This means that from the possibility of 10 deaths in 1,000 infected 60-year-olds, the mortality rate increases to 13 deaths in 1,000 cases.

With B117 quickly overtaking other strains, Inquirer.net suggests that this could mean a 15-fold increase in cases in the country, should the variant be the dominant COVID-19 strain. As of January 24, 2021, there have been 17 cases of the UK variant in the Philippines.

On December 26, 2020, President Rodrigo Duterte called back orders to begin the dry run for face-to-face classes until further notice as cases of the new variant began to rise in the country. Health groups warned that the lack of health infrastructure, gaps in testing and contact tracing would turn face-to-face classes into a health risk. The President agreed, stating, “I said we were making some projections. But if the severity in numbers would demand that we take corrective measures immediately, then we should just have to go back to lockdown.” (source: rappler)

The Philippines is also delayed in a vaccine rollout, compared to nations like the United States.

While the new UK variant does not seem to stray much from the original strain, it’s potential to turn into a strain that is evidently worse for both those infected and those who will be affected by potential lockdowns creates another variable adding to the uncertainty as to when hybrid learning will begin. In the words of President Duterte, “Until we are through with this,” only will face-to-face classes return for children in the country.

Sophie

In short, the answer is no. The UK Variant may be more transmittable but the variant is found to not be more fatal and we already have the original COVID-19 virus hitting the Philippines hard. Either way, we don't know when and if ISM is allowed to reopen this school year. 

According to an interview with the Philippine health department back in October, schools would be allowed to reopen as soon as there was a vaccine. They estimated that schools would open on the 24th of August, which is somewhere between the middle and the end of the second semester.

Now that we have multiple valid vaccines, the only thing pushing back is that everyone needs to be vaccinated. Although there was some concern around the vaccines and whether they work against both the COVID-19 virus and it's UK variant, scientists have found that the vaccine works for both. Thus there is no need to worry about that. 

So, going back to the challenge of getting citizens of the Philippines vaccinated. Philipine health officials  wanted to achieve herd immunity by starting with vaccinating 25% of its 110 million people by the end of the year. Their target is to get a total of 70-80% herd immunity, and their target is to vaccinate 25-30 million Filipinos per year. 

In addition to that, President Duterte has struggled with securing the European vaccines as he said, "You want us to make a reservation by depositing money, you must be crazy," in September, just as major pharmaceutical companies moved toward regulatory approval. This was especially directed towards the European companies and now the Philippines is leaning towards the Chinese and Russian vaccines as they seemed more credible by President Duterte. He accused the european companies of "profiting" amid this pandemic. 

So even though some might argue that the arrival of SARS-Cov-2 VOC 2020/2021 is worse and a big setback, we already have to deal with COVID-19 so it won't really make any difference. Hospitals are already full, and the plan of herd immunity is not really being executed. Vaccines aren't being secured very well and the Philippines is very behind on other countries. First, the Philippines needs to resolve these problems, and then ISM might be allowed to open again along with other local schools.