Let's look at your games in class:
get a group of three people
explain your games, let them play. they should determine which one has a house advantage, which one has a player advantage
repeat for each of the three people in the group
refocus on expected value:
Powerball ticket: the odds are here.
review of the probability rules that we know so far:
let's build a model for rolling two dice; what are the odds?
set up some probabilities on the side board to look at new rules of probability as well
Chevalier de Mere part I
Chevalier de Mere part II
the birthday problem and it's surprising repercussions.
guessing heads and tails correctly
gamblers fallacy
how good is GOOD.
p-value
boxes for confidence interval
estimate +/- MOE . This MOE can be created multiple ways, but generally is balanced on hw correct we want to be, and how much we are okay with being wrong.
Homework. Answer these completely. Show your work, and come ready to explain these as if I were to call on you and you would have to explain it to the entire class:
1) Consider the first question in class: Roll 2 dice. If you get two sixes at the same time, stop rolling. You get 24 tries. What are your odds of winning?
2) You get to roll 2 six sided die. Your opponent rolls a 12 sided die. Who has better odds at rolling higher?
3) There is a room of 30 people. What are the chances that at least 2 people in the room share a birthday?
4) A friend says he can tell you what a coin will be flipped before it happens. You test him 10 times and he gets 7 right. Should you believe him?