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While thermostat temperatures are on the rise in many homes across Minot, outside temperatures continue to fall.
While thermostat temperatures are on the rise in many homes across Minot, outside temperatures continue to fall.
Forecasted temperatures have consistently been below zero for much of the new year, despite the more pleasant increase during the second week of January 2025. Many North Dakotans are used to fluctuating temperatures during the winter months, but current weather patterns have been anything but normal. Data suggests that temperatures have been significantly lower than in previous years. However, while the numbers may show that the weather is colder, it doesn’t explain why. The answer is more familiar than you think: La Niña.
Diagram from NOAA article "What are El Niño and La Niña?"
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) describes La Niña as a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that affects global weather. La Niña affects the trade winds, easterly winds that blow towards the equator, named for their role in helping early ships from European and African ports sail to the Americas. During La Niña these trade winds become even stronger, which causes them to push more warm water toward Asia. At the same time, the trade winds bring cold and nutrient-rich water to the west coast of the Americas. These cold waters push the jet stream to the north. Jet streams are bands of strong winds that move west to east and reside in the upper atmosphere. This effect causes warmer winters in the south and colder winters in the north.
Diagram from NOAA article "What is the Polar Vortex?"
Now that La Niña has been officially confirmed, there’s more room to explore why it could feel so different this year. This year’s La Niña is relatively weak, even if it might not feel like it. In La Niña conditions the circulation around the North Pole is weaker, which can cause the Polar Vortex to blow cold winds to the south. The Polar Vortex is a relatively common phenomenon used to describe the group of strong winds that circle the North Pole. Strong blasts of cold air from the Polar Vortex are especially common during the winter, in which the La Nińa conditions aid. These cold air surges are the main reason for the deceivingly low temperatures. There’s no reason to panic though; as La Niña conditions are expected to become neutral in the following month, the last week of February is forecasted to bring much more pleasant temperatures.
However, there is one more thing that is important to note about La Niña before getting too comfortable with the idea of spring. This year’s La Niña precipitation forecast and oceanic to atmospheric dynamics are unusual compared to previous occurrences. While scientists cannot say for certain what the cause is, they think global ocean warmth is the culprit. These rising temperatures in the ocean can cause an imbalance in atmospheric and oceanic pressure during La Niña, which means even stronger winds. It’s with the cooperation of humans that these rising temperatures can be offset. The best way people can help the oceans is to be mindful of how they use their water, dispose of their trash, treat sea life, and especially how they use their voices to educate others.
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