Somaliland: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Somaliland, a self-declared republic occupying a contested space in the Horn of Africa, presents a unique case study in state-building, political survival, and the enduring legacy of colonialism. Bordered by Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Somalia, with a coastline along the Gulf of Aden, Somaliland’s semi-arid terrain and hot climate shape its predominantly pastoralist economy. Its roughly six million citizens are almost entirely ethnic Somali, but clan affiliations (primarily Isaaq, Darod, and Dir) deeply influence its political landscape. Somaliland distinguishes itself through its history as a former British protectorate, its persistent (though unrecognized) independence since 1991, and its homegrown democratic governance model.

Key Threats and Strategic Considerations

• Contested Sovereignty: Somalia's persistent refusal to recognize Somaliland’s independence is rooted in the concept of a unified Somali state, a legacy of pan-Somalism that emerged during the post-colonial era. This lack of international recognition limits Somaliland's access to multilateral institutions, development financing, and international markets, hindering its economic development and exacerbating tensions with Mogadishu. (Good Governance Africa, Dec. 6, 2024)

• Internal Conflicts and Clan Politics: Clannism, a legacy of pre-colonial social organization reinforced during the colonial era and the Barre regime, continues to shape Somaliland’s political landscape and fuel internal conflicts, particularly in the eastern Sool region, where the disputed city of Las Anod has become a flashpoint for tensions between the Dhulbahante (Darod clan) and the Somaliland government (dominated by the Isaaq clan). These divisions threaten Somaliland’s stability and complicate efforts to consolidate a cohesive national identity. (Crisis Group, Dec. 11, 2024)

• Regional Geopolitical Dynamics: Somaliland’s strategic location along the Gulf of Aden, a critical maritime route, makes it a focal point for regional rivalries and great power competition. The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU, which grants Ethiopia access to the port of Berbera in exchange for potential recognition, reflects Somaliland's efforts to leverage its geostrategic importance to advance its foreign policy ambitions, but it has also increased tensions with Somalia and Egypt, who view Ethiopia's growing influence in the region with suspicion. (Council on Foreign Relations, Jan. 21, 2025)

• Limited International Support: Somaliland's protracted quest for international recognition has been hampered by the African Union's (AU) adherence to the "One Somalia" policy, a legacy of the Organization of African Unity's (OAU) emphasis on preserving the territorial integrity of post-colonial states, which often prioritized the stability of existing states over the right to self-determination. This policy, while intended to prevent further fragmentation and conflict in Africa, has effectively marginalized Somaliland and other unrecognized states, hindering their integration into the international community. (ISPI, Nov. 25, 2024)

• Economic Challenges: Despite the strategic potential of Berbera port, Somaliland’s economy remains underdeveloped, hindered by limited access to international finance and markets, which are consequences of its unrecognized status. High inflation, unemployment (especially among youth), and a weak private sector constrain Somaliland's ability to provide essential services to its citizens and achieve sustainable economic development. (Council on Foreign Relations, Jan. 21, 2025)

Data Synthesis and Organization

Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• British Somaliland (1884-1960): Somaliland's experience as a British protectorate established separate administrative, legal, and educational systems from those of Italian Somaliland, creating distinct identities and political cultures that continue to shape the region's post-colonial trajectory. This period also saw the consolidation of clannism as a political force, as British authorities relied on traditional clan elders to administer local affairs. (Good Governance Africa, Dec. 6, 2024)

• Union with Somalia (1960-1991): Somaliland's voluntary union with Somalia quickly soured as the southern-dominated government marginalized the north politically and economically. This period of disillusionment and resentment fueled the emergence of the Somali National Movement (SNM), which spearheaded Somaliland’s fight for independence, underscoring the region’s deep-seated grievances and distinct identity. (Council on Foreign Relations, Jan. 21, 2025)

Political Developments

• 2024 Presidential Election and Transfer of Power: The November 2024 presidential election marked a turning point in Somaliland's political development. The victory of opposition candidate Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi "Irro" over incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi demonstrated the resilience of the country’s multiparty system and its commitment to peaceful transitions of power, a rare occurrence in the Horn of Africa. (Crisis Group, Dec. 11, 2024)

• The Las Anod Conflict and its Ramifications: The ongoing conflict in Las Anod, which escalated in 2023, has profoundly impacted Somaliland's internal political landscape. The fighting between Somaliland forces and Dhulbahante militias has not only resulted in substantial casualties and displacement but has also fueled political tensions and eroded public trust in the government’s ability to resolve internal conflicts. (DIIS, Jan. 25, 2024)

• Tensions in Awdal: Unresolved political grievances and power-sharing disputes in the Awdal region, primarily between the Isaaq and the Dir clans, have contributed to growing unrest and risk undermining Somaliland’s internal stability. (ISIR, Dec. 2024)

Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Hybrid Governance Structure: Somaliland’s unique blend of traditional and modern political institutions, combining elected bodies (President, House of Representatives) with the unelected Guurti (House of Elders), reflects the enduring legacy of clannism and the challenges of balancing traditional power structures with democratic principles. The Guurti, composed of clan elders, plays a powerful role in mediating disputes, approving legislation, and extending the terms of elected officials, though its unelected status raises concerns about representation and accountability. (Freedom House, 2024)

• Electoral Delays and Irregularities: The repeated delays in holding elections, including the two-year postponement of the 2024 presidential vote, as well as reports of irregularities and low voter turnout, point to ongoing challenges in strengthening Somaliland’s electoral processes and ensuring that they adhere to democratic standards. (Good Governance Africa, Dec. 6, 2024)

Socio-Economic Factors

• Economic Dependence and Remittances: Somaliland’s economy is heavily reliant on remittances from the diaspora, which constitute a significant portion of its GDP. This dependence highlights both the challenges of building a sustainable domestic economy and the strong ties that Somalilanders abroad maintain with their homeland. (Council on Foreign Relations, Jan. 21, 2025)

• The Berbera Port and its Strategic Importance: The strategically located Berbera port, situated along the Gulf of Aden, a vital maritime route, presents Somaliland with a unique opportunity to leverage its geostrategic importance for economic development and to attract foreign investment. However, the port’s potential is constrained by the country’s unrecognized status and limited access to international finance. (ISPI, Nov. 25, 2024)

Security and Conflict Dynamics

• The Las Anod Conflict and Regional Instability: The Las Anod conflict, stemming from longstanding tensions between Somaliland and the semi-autonomous region of Puntland over the control of the Sool region, escalated into armed conflict in 2023, resulting in significant casualties, displacement, and damage to Somaliland’s reputation for stability. The declaration by the Dhulbahante clan of a separate administration (SSC-Khatumo) aligned with Somalia has added a new layer of complexity to the conflict and further destabilized the region. (DIIS, Jan. 25, 2024)

• Impact on Security and Governance: The conflict has not only strained Somaliland’s security forces but has also eroded public trust in the government's ability to maintain peace and security, underscoring the interconnectedness between security, governance, and state legitimacy. (Crisis Group, Dec. 11, 2024)

Foreign Policy Environment

• Balancing Recognition Aspirations with Regional Realities: Somaliland’s foreign policy has been dominated by its pursuit of international recognition. However, the lack of success to date and the complexities of regional politics have compelled the government to adopt a more nuanced approach, balancing its aspirations for statehood with the need to build strategic partnerships and manage regional tensions, particularly with Somalia and Ethiopia. (Modern Diplomacy, Nov. 12, 2024)

• The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU and its Geopolitical Implications: The agreement with Ethiopia, which grants the country access to the strategically important port of Berbera in exchange for potential recognition, is a high-stakes gamble for Somaliland, reflecting the government's willingness to leverage its geostrategic assets to advance its diplomatic goals, despite the potential for heightened tensions with Somalia and other regional actors who view the agreement with suspicion. (RSDI, Mar. 25, 2025)

Unique to Somaliland Topics

• The Interplay of Clannism and Democracy: Somaliland’s political system is characterized by a unique interplay between clannism, a legacy of pre-colonial social organization, and the institutions of modern democracy. Clan loyalties and affiliations continue to play a powerful role in shaping political alliances, voting patterns, and access to resources, presenting both opportunities for consensus-building and challenges to democratic principles. (Good Governance Africa, Dec. 6, 2024)

• The Guurti and Traditional Authority: The Guurti (House of Elders), a traditional institution representing clan-based power structures, plays a significant role in Somaliland's governance model, acting as a check on the power of elected institutions and mediating disputes between clans. However, the Guurti’s unelected status and its power to extend the terms of elected officials raise concerns about democratic accountability and the potential for abuse of power. (Freedom House, 2024)

Sources Cited

• "Analysis: Somaliland elections 2024." Good Governance Africa, Dec. 6, 2024.

• "Somaliland at the centre of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa." DIIS, Jan. 25, 2024.

• "Somaliland: A Change of Leadership in the Context of Regional Developments and its Quest for Recognition." ISPI, Nov. 25, 2024.

• "Somaliland: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report." Freedom House, 2024.

• "Somaliland: The Horn of Africa's Breakaway State." Council on Foreign Relations, Jan. 21, 2025.

• "Somaliland's Foreign Policy Reset: Turning Challenges into Opportunities." ISIR, Dec. 2024.

• "Somaliland's bold gamble: Recognition, regional security, and the reordering of the Horn of Africa." RSDI, Mar. 25, 2025.

• "Somaliland's Peaceful Handover Withstands Neighbourhood Strains." Crisis Group, Dec. 11, 2024.

• "Somaliland's Reaction to Trump's Victory: Diplomatic Optimism and Strategic Caution." Modern Diplomacy, Nov. 12, 2024.

• "Human Development Report 2023/2024: Breaking the Gridlock." UNDP, 2024.

• "Poverty amid conflict." Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2024.