Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Ethiopia, a landlocked East African nation, presents a complex and evolving geopolitical landscape. Its diverse geography, ranging from the rugged Simien Mountains to the Danakil Depression and the fertile Omo River Valley, shapes its vulnerability to climate change impacts. The country's climate, influenced by its varied terrain, ranges from tropical monsoon in the southwest to hot desert in the east, exacerbating these vulnerabilities. With a population exceeding 120 million, Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa and possesses a young demographic profile, creating both opportunities and challenges. Its ethnic composition, encompassing over 80 distinct groups, including the Oromo, Amhara, and Tigrayans, is central to its political dynamics and has deep historical roots in pre-colonial power structures and intergroup relations. Ethiopia holds strategic geopolitical importance due to its location in the Horn of Africa, a volatile region marked by conflict and instability. Its economy, traditionally agrarian but undergoing a period of diversification, plays a key role in regional economic dynamics. Ethiopia also possesses substantial, though largely untapped, reserves of natural resources, including critical minerals crucial for the global energy transition.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape

The geopolitical landscape in Ethiopia is dynamic and fraught with complexities, demanding strategic engagement by policymakers and international stakeholders. Key threats include:

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

II. Political Developments

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

VII. Unique to Country Topics

Sources Cited