Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Ethiopia, a landlocked East African nation, presents a complex and evolving geopolitical landscape. Its diverse geography, ranging from the rugged Simien Mountains to the Danakil Depression and the fertile Omo River Valley, shapes its vulnerability to climate change impacts. The country's climate, influenced by its varied terrain, ranges from tropical monsoon in the southwest to hot desert in the east, exacerbating these vulnerabilities. With a population exceeding 120 million, Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa and possesses a young demographic profile, creating both opportunities and challenges. Its ethnic composition, encompassing over 80 distinct groups, including the Oromo, Amhara, and Tigrayans, is central to its political dynamics and has deep historical roots in pre-colonial power structures and intergroup relations. Ethiopia holds strategic geopolitical importance due to its location in the Horn of Africa, a volatile region marked by conflict and instability. Its economy, traditionally agrarian but undergoing a period of diversification, plays a key role in regional economic dynamics. Ethiopia also possesses substantial, though largely untapped, reserves of natural resources, including critical minerals crucial for the global energy transition.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape

The geopolitical landscape in Ethiopia is dynamic and fraught with complexities, demanding strategic engagement by policymakers and international stakeholders. Key threats include:

• Internal Conflicts and Political Instability: Recurring conflicts between ethnic militias and the Federal Government, rooted in historical grievances and power struggles, threaten the country's stability. These conflicts, particularly acute in the Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray regions, are intertwined with the legacy of ethnic federalism implemented in 1995, and the competition for political power and resources. The complexities are exacerbated by the involvement of external actors and the proliferation of small arms. Key conflicts include:

  • Tigray Conflict (2020-2022): A two-year civil war between the TPLF and the Federal Government, resulting in widespread human rights abuses, displacement, and humanitarian crisis (see specific reports for details). Although a peace agreement was signed in November 2022, tensions and the risk of renewed conflict remain.

  • Amhara Uprising (2023-present): Clashes between the ENDF and Fano militia, rooted in the Federal Government's efforts to integrate regional forces, escalated into a major conflict.

  • Oromia Insurgency (2018-present): Ongoing conflict between government forces and the OLA, driven by demands for greater autonomy for the Oromo people. This has resulted in violence, displacement, and restrictions on access to information in affected areas.

• Regional Tensions: Ethiopia's relationship with its neighbors, including Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan, remains strained. Tensions with Sudan have been exacerbated by border disputes, while relations with Eritrea are marred by a history of conflict.

• Climate Change Impacts: Increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and heat waves, are jeopardizing agricultural production, exacerbating food insecurity, and causing displacement, particularly in vulnerable communities.

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• Italian Occupation (1936-1941): While Ethiopia was never formally colonized by European powers, the Italian occupation during World War II left a lasting impact. This period saw widespread resistance by Ethiopians and contributed to the development of a strong sense of national identity. However, the annexation of Eritrea during this period fueled Eritrean nationalism and led to a long struggle for independence, ultimately impacting Ethiopia's relationship with its neighbor and access to the Red Sea. (various reports)

• Post-Colonial Conflicts: The legacy of unresolved ethnic and political grievances stemming from historical power imbalances and resource competition has fueled ongoing conflicts, particularly after the end of the Derg regime in 1991. These conflicts, notably in the Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara regions, are deeply intertwined with historical power dynamics and the system of ethnic federalism implemented in 1995. (various reports)

II. Political Developments

• Transition Under Abiy Ahmed (2018-present): The appointment of Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister in 2018 promised transformative political and economic reforms. Initial moves included releasing political prisoners, lifting restrictions on media, and making peace with Eritrea. However, the transition has been marked by increasing instability, with ongoing conflicts in Oromia and Amhara, and the Tigray war (2020-2022). (BTI 2024, Freedom House 2024, other reports)

• Rise of the Prosperity Party (2019): The Prosperity Party replaced the EPRDF coalition, bringing together some of the former EPRDF parties (ADP, ODP, and SEPDM) and other smaller parties. The TPLF, a key player in the former ruling coalition, refused to join, further exacerbating political tensions and contributing to the Tigray conflict. (BTI 2024, PeaceRep 2024)

• State of Emergency Declarations: The government has declared states of emergency in several regions, including Amhara (2023), to address conflict and unrest. These declarations often involve restrictions on freedoms and increased security presence, raising human rights concerns. (HRW 2023, other reports)

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• 2021 General Elections: The Prosperity Party won a landslide victory in the 2021 general elections, solidifying its hold on power. However, the elections were marred by irregularities, security concerns, and the exclusion of some political groups, including those in Tigray, due to conflict, leading to questions about their credibility and legitimacy. Key opposition groups boycotted the elections, citing harassment and unfair conditions. (Freedom House 2024, other reports)

• Weakening of Democratic Institutions: While some independent institutions like the National Election Board of Ethiopia and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission have played a role in promoting democratic principles, their effectiveness has been limited by political interference and capacity constraints. (Freedom House 2024, other reports)

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• Economic Challenges: Ethiopia faces persistent economic challenges, including high inflation (over 30% in 2023), high youth unemployment, and growing public debt, which limit the government's ability to invest in development and address urgent needs. (World Bank, ILO, other reports)

• Agricultural Dependence: Ethiopia's economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, which employs a significant portion of the population. The sector is vulnerable to climate change impacts, including droughts and floods, affecting food security and livelihoods, particularly in rural areas. The most impacted regions include the Somali, Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray regions, as well as the Afar and SNNP regions (OCHA). (World Bank CCDR, other reports)

• Regional Disparities: Unequal distribution of resources and economic opportunities has fueled grievances and contributed to conflict and fragility. In addition, the rapid expansion of industrial parks has not translated into widespread job creation or significant improvements in living standards for many workers. (World Bank, other reports)

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Internal Conflicts: The Tigray conflict (2020-2022), the Amhara uprising (2023-present), and the ongoing Oromia insurgency (2018-present) are all rooted in historical ethnic and political grievances, exacerbated by competition for resources and power. These conflicts have resulted in widespread human rights abuses, displacement, and humanitarian crises, impacting regional stability and undermining trust in the government. (various reports, including HRW, Amnesty International, and State Department reports)

• Regional Conflicts: Ethiopia's long-standing border dispute with Eritrea, tensions with Sudan over the al-Fashaga region, and its involvement in Somalia contribute to regional instability and the risk of cross-border conflict. (various reports)

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Great Power Relations: Ethiopia seeks to balance relations with major powers, including China (a key economic partner and investor) and the United States (a traditional security and development partner), but relations with the U.S. have been strained by concerns over human rights and the Tigray conflict.

• Regional Dynamics: Ethiopia plays a leading role in regional organizations like the African Union and Intergovernmental Authority on Development, but its perceived dominance within IGAD has created tensions with some member states. Relations with neighboring countries (Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan) remain complex and fraught with challenges.

• Trade and Investment: Ethiopia is a member of the AfCFTA and seeks to expand and diversify its export markets. However, its dependence on foreign aid, particularly from Western countries, could limit its policy autonomy. Ethiopia also has ambitions to enhance its influence in the Red Sea region, seeking access to ports and the potential establishment of a naval base.

• Regional Tensions: Ethiopia's relations with its neighbors are strained due to historical disputes, competition for resources, and cross-border movements of armed groups. Key tensions include:

  1. Eritrea: Longstanding border disputes and unresolved issues following the 1998-2000 war (source: various reports). Eritrea has been accused of involvement in the Tigray conflict.

  2. Sudan: Tensions over the al-Fashaga border region, historically contested and a source of conflict (source: CrisisGroup).

  3. Somalia: Ethiopia's engagement with Somaliland, a self-declared autonomous region of Somalia, has raised concerns in Mogadishu (source: various reports).

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• Ethnic Federalism (Implemented in 1995): This unique system, which designates political boundaries by ethnicity and grants self-determination rights (including secession), has been a double-edged sword. While aiming to address historical grievances and promote inclusivity, it has inadvertently intensified ethnic tensions, fueled conflicts, and created challenges to national unity and state cohesion. The debate over its merits and risks continues to shape Ethiopia's political landscape. (various academic sources, including those mentioned in the PeaceRep report)

• National Identity: The lack of a unifying national narrative further exacerbates political polarization and hinders intergroup cooperation in addressing shared challenges. Competing visions of a pan-Ethiopian identity vs. ethnic self-determination make it challenging to build a shared national identity.

Sources Cited

• Alkire, Sabina, Usha Kanagaratnam, and Nicolai Suppa. 2024c. "A Methodological Note on the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) 2024 Changes over Time Results for 86 Countries." OPHI MPI Methodological Note 60, Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, University of Oxford, UK.

• Amnesty International. 2023. “Ethiopia 2023.” Amnesty International Report 2023/24: The State of the World's Human Rights. Amnesty International.

• "Beyond the ballot? Africans prefer self-reliant development, remain skeptical of free trade and open borders." Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 492 (Nov. 2021). Afrobarometer.

• “BTI 2024 Country Report – Ethiopia.” Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

• "Ethiopia." Freedom in the World 2024. Freedom House, 2024.

• "Ethiopia 2023 Human Rights Report." Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, United States Department of State, March 2024.

• "Human Development Report 2023/2024: Breaking the Gridlock." United Nations Development Programme, 2024.

• “In Crisis Group Africa Report N°280, October 2022. ‘Containing the Volatile Sudan-Ethiopia Border Dispute’,”

• “In Crisis Group Africa Report N°313, 8 May 2024. ‘Africa Briefing N°184-Al Shabaab’s Slow Burn’,” International Crisis Group.

• "Report of the Human Rights Council." A/79/53/Add.1, 24 October 2024. Human Rights Council, United Nations.

• "World Report 2025: Ethiopia." Human Rights Watch (HRW), 2025.

• "Two-level game or the primacy of domestic politics? Ethiopia's regional foreign policy after 2018." PeaceRep Working Paper, 2023.