Republic of Madagascar Geopolitical Assessment 2025

Introduction

Madagascar, an island nation off the southeastern coast of Africa, is characterized by unique biodiversity, endemic species, and varied landscapes. Its population of nearly 30 million is predominantly young and rural, with increasing urbanization. Historically a French colony, Madagascar gained independence in 1960. Its economy relies heavily on agriculture, tourism, and extractive industries, but it faces significant development challenges, including high poverty, weak governance, and vulnerability to natural disasters, particularly cyclones. Its strategic importance stems from its biodiversity, location in the Indian Ocean, and untapped natural resources.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape

Key threats include political instability, corruption, fragility driven by socio-economic and environmental factors, and increasing external influence from countries like China and Russia, particularly around extractive sectors. Climate change poses a serious threat, exacerbating food insecurity, water scarcity, and disaster risk. Opportunities exist in leveraging its natural resources for sustainable development, promoting tourism, and fostering regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), though this also presents challenges for Madagascar to position itself within the globalized economy.

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• French Colonialism (1896-1960): French colonial rule significantly impacted Madagascar's social, political, and economic structures.

  • Centralized Administration: The French imposed a centralized administrative system, suppressing local governance structures and traditional power dynamics. This legacy continues to hinder effective decentralization and local autonomy in present-day Madagascar, contributing to a perceived disconnect between citizens and the state. (U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report, BTI 2024)

  • Resource Extraction: The colonial economy focused on resource extraction, particularly of timber, vanilla, and other cash crops, to benefit France. This created an extractive model that persists today, with foreign investments primarily targeting natural resources rather than fostering broader economic diversification. (World Bank Country Climate and Development Report) This focus on resource extraction also created dependencies on global commodity markets, leaving the Malagasy economy vulnerable to price shocks and limiting opportunities for industrial development. (IMF Report)

  • Ethnic Divisions: The French exacerbated existing social divisions by creating a hierarchy based on ethnic groups, favoring the Merina people from the central highlands over coastal communities. This manipulation of ethnic identity continues to fuel political polarization and competition for resources in modern Madagascar. (BTI 2024)

• Neo-colonialism (Post-1960): Despite gaining independence, Madagascar continues to face neo-colonial influences. Foreign aid and investment, particularly from emerging powers like China, often reinforce the extractive model, focusing on securing access to natural resources rather than fostering sustainable development. (Carnegie Report)

II. Political Developments

• Consolidation of Power: President Rajoelina has consolidated power during this period, often through actions that restrict political freedoms. The November 2023 election, marred by restrictions on freedom of assembly and a significant opposition boycott, raised concerns about democratic backsliding. (Freedom House, U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report)

• Political Polarization: Madagascar's political landscape is deeply polarized, with limited political space for opposition parties and frequent restrictions on dissent. This polarization often manifests in protests and clashes with security forces, particularly in urban areas. (CIVICUS report, U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report)

• Civil Society Restrictions: Civil society organizations, including those working on human rights and environmental issues, face growing restrictions, including intimidation, arbitrary arrests, and prosecution. This shrinking civic space further undermines democratic accountability and exacerbates human rights concerns. (CIVICUS report, U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report)

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Judicial Independence: The judiciary in Madagascar lacks independence and is perceived as vulnerable to political interference, undermining the rule of law and due process. (BTI 2024, U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report). Corruption in the judiciary and law enforcement also undermines effective investigation of human rights abuses and protection of citizens. (U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report)

• Electoral Integrity: The 2023 election was marred by irregularities and a lack of transparency, raising questions about the credibility and integrity of the electoral process. (Freedom House, U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report)

• Corruption: Despite efforts to establish anti-corruption institutions, corruption remains a significant challenge, hindering good governance and diverting resources away from essential public services. (U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report, BTI 2024)

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• Poverty and Inequality: Poverty and inequality remain widespread, exacerbated by factors such as lack of access to education, healthcare, and basic services, particularly in rural areas and among vulnerable populations like the Karana community. The Karana community's statelessness denies them fundamental rights and reinforces marginalization. (Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2024, U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report)

• Economic Dependence: Madagascar's economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, especially vanilla and rice, and tourism, making it susceptible to external shocks such as commodity price fluctuations and natural disasters. (IMF Report) The informal nature of the economy limits access to social protections and perpetuates inequality. (BTI 2024, World Bank Country Climate and Development Report)

• Climate Change Vulnerability: Madagascar is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including cyclones, droughts, and rising sea levels. These events exacerbate poverty, displace populations, and further strain the country's limited resources. (World Bank Country Climate and Development Report)

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Cattle Rustling and Mob Violence: Cattle rustling and resulting mob violence, particularly in the south and central-west, contribute to insecurity and alleged extrajudicial killings by security forces. (U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report) The impunity enjoyed by perpetrators fuels further violence.

• Targeting of Persons with Albinism: Persons with albinism remain targets of violence and kidnapping, driven by harmful traditional beliefs. Although security forces have made efforts to protect victims and arrest suspects, this vulnerable group continues to face significant threats. (U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report)

• Refugee and Asylum Seeker Protection: Refugees and asylum seekers face limited legal protection, restricted access to basic services, and challenges in securing employment. (U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report)

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Balancing External Influences: Madagascar is navigating a complex foreign policy environment, seeking to balance relationships with traditional Western partners like France and the United States with increased engagement with emerging powers like China and Russia.

• Chinese Investment: China's growing influence in Madagascar, particularly through investments in infrastructure and extractive sectors, raises concerns about potential debt sustainability and reinforcement of the extractive model. (Carnegie Report, BTI 2024)

• Multilateral Engagement: Madagascar continues to engage with multilateral institutions, including the IMF and World Bank, seeking financial assistance and technical support to address economic challenges and implement reforms, including climate change measures. These engagements create some opportunities for international partnership. (IMF Report, World Bank Country Climate and Development Report)

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• Statelessness of the Karana Community: The Karana, primarily of South Asian descent, are denied full citizenship rights in Madagascar due to discriminatory laws related to religious and ethnic identification. This statelessness creates significant socio-economic and political marginalization, limiting their access to education, employment, healthcare, and property ownership. (U.S. Department of State's Human Rights Report)

Sources Cited

Bertelsmann Stiftung. "BTI 2024 Country Report: Madagascar." Gütersloh.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Priorities for the New U.S. Administration and Congress on Strengthening Economic Relations with Africa." Washington, D.C.
CIVICUS. "Violations during tense electoral period; HRDs and whistleblowers continue to be intimidated, arrested and prosecuted."
Freedom House. "Madagascar: Freedom in the World 2024."
International Monetary Fund. "Republic of Madagascar: Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility."
International Monetary Fund. "World Economic Outlook: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats."
Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative and United Nations Development Programme. "Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2024: Poverty amid conflict."
United Nations. "Human Development Report 2023/2024: Breaking the gridlock."
United Nations. "Report of the Human Rights Council: Fifty-seventh session."
United Nations. "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025."
United States Department of State. "Madagascar 2023 Human Rights Report."
World Bank Group. "Madagascar: Country Climate and Development Report."
World Economic Forum. "The Global Risks Report 2025: Insight Report."