Republic of Ghana Geopolitical Assessment: 2025

Introduction and Overview

Ghana, a nation situated on the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa, presents a complex and dynamic geopolitical landscape. Its diverse geography encompasses coastal plains, rainforests, and savannas, influencing regional economic activities and settlement patterns. Ghana's population of approximately 34.8 million comprises a rich tapestry of ethnic and religious groups, with prominent communities like the Akan, Ewe, Ga-Adangbe, and Mole-Dagbon shaping social and political interactions. Its historical significance as the first sub-Saharan African nation to achieve independence from British colonial rule in 1957 has profoundly shaped its national identity and regional influence. Ghana's economy, heavily reliant on gold, cocoa, and oil exports, remains vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity markets and faces challenges from debt burdens and socioeconomic disparities. Geopolitically, Ghana is a key player in regional security and development, particularly within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). However, its proximity to volatile neighbors experiencing instability, violent extremism, and growing Russian influence requires continuous vigilance and strategic engagement.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment:

• Opportunities: Democratic institutions, Economic diversification potential, Regional leadership role, Strategic partnerships

• Threats: Political polarization, Corruption, Socioeconomic disparities, Regional instability spillover, Violent extremism, Russian influence

Data Synthesis and Analysis 

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies:

• Indirect Rule: The British colonial administration's system of "indirect rule," which co-opted traditional chiefs to enforce colonial policies, has had a lasting impact on Ghana's governance structures. This system deeply politicized chieftaincy institutions, undermining their traditional role as mediators and exacerbating tensions over succession and resource control. This historical legacy continues to fuel present-day chieftaincy conflicts and land disputes, particularly in northern Ghana, where traditional authorities retain significant influence (Clingendael, 23). The legacy of "indirect rule" can be seen in the contemporary challenges of establishing trust between local communities and national institutions, particularly in the security sector. This has in turn fostered the growth of community-based security initiatives, often outside the control of the state (ISS, 3).

• Artificial Borders: The arbitrary demarcation of colonial borders has created artificial boundaries that often do not align with existing ethnic and cultural identities. These colonial-era divisions continue to fuel communal conflicts and land disputes, particularly in border regions where populations may have stronger ties with neighboring countries than with their own compatriots (Clingendael, 18). This legacy is evident in the challenges Ghana faces in securing its northern borders and managing cross-border movements of people, goods, and arms, which can exacerbate local tensions and create opportunities for external actors, including violent extremist groups (CSIS, 3).

II. Political Developments and Polarization:

• Two-Party Dominance: Ghana's post-colonial political landscape has been dominated by two major parties, the NDC and the NPP, engaged in a fiercely competitive, winner-take-all system. This system incentivizes zero-sum political calculations and has fostered a climate of mistrust between the parties and their supporters, often leading to political violence during electoral periods (Clingendael, 6). This polarization has also eroded public trust in electoral institutions and undermined efforts to build consensus on key national issues (Clingendael, 4).

• 2024 Elections & The Return of Mahama: The December 2024 elections saw the return of former president John Mahama and the NDC to power, signaling a shift in the political landscape after four years of NPP rule. This change in leadership occurred amidst economic hardship, public discontent, and accusations of corruption against the previous administration, suggesting a growing demand for change and accountability (Carnegie, 1; Freedom House, 2). Mahama's victory was seen as a rejection of the status quo, though the ability of the NDC to address the country's challenges and restore public trust remains to be seen.

• Rise of Populism: Although Ghana has a relatively strong democratic culture, there are signs of growing support for populist narratives and political leaders willing to bypass democratic norms and processes. This trend has been fueled in part by economic grievances, the perception of elite capture, and frustration with the slow pace of development, creating conditions that could be exploited by political opportunists (Clingendael, 7).

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes:

• Electoral Commission Controversies: While Ghana's electoral system has facilitated relatively peaceful transfers of power, concerns persist about the independence and impartiality of the Electoral Commission. The appointment of partisan officials to the Commission has fueled accusations of bias and undermined public trust in the electoral process (Freedom House, 4; Clingendael, 5). This erosion of trust could create conditions for greater political instability and contestation of election results, particularly if margins of victory remain narrow.

• Money in Politics: The role of money in politics is a growing concern in Ghana, with campaign financing often lacking transparency and regulations being poorly enforced. This creates an uneven playing field for candidates and raises concerns about the influence of special interests on policymaking (Clingendael, 9).

IV. Socio-Economic Factors:

• Economic Crisis & Debt Burden: Ghana's economy is facing significant challenges, including high inflation, a growing public debt burden, and a depreciating currency. These economic woes have been exacerbated by global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as by domestic policy missteps (World Bank, 9). The resulting economic hardship has fueled public discontent and created conditions for social unrest, potentially undermining the government's ability to address the country's long-term development needs.

• Regional Disparities: Regional disparities in economic development and access to basic services continue to be a major source of tension in Ghana, with northern Ghana lagging significantly behind the south (Clingendael, 7). This inequality has fueled feelings of marginalization and resentment in the north, creating conditions that could be exploited by extremist groups or contribute to social unrest. The government's ability to address these disparities and promote more inclusive economic growth will be crucial for maintaining national unity and stability.

• Informal Economy Dominance: Ghana's large informal economy, while providing livelihoods for many, limits the government's ability to collect tax revenue and implement effective economic policies. This informality also makes it more challenging to track and address issues such as child labor, worker exploitation, and environmental degradation (CSIS, 8).

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics:

• Internal and External Threats: Ghana faces both internal and external security threats, including communal conflicts, land disputes, and the risk of spillover violence from neighboring countries experiencing instability and violent extremism (ISS, 1). The presence of armed groups in neighboring countries like Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire, along with the porous nature of Ghana's northern borders, creates opportunities for cross-border criminal activity and the potential for extremist infiltration.

• Securitization of Everyday Life: While the threat of organized terrorism remains relatively low, concerns about everyday violence, crime, and insecurity dominate public discourse in Ghana (CSIS, 4). This sense of insecurity is fueled by factors such as police brutality, the lack of access to justice, and corruption within the security sector. Addressing these concerns and restoring public trust in law enforcement institutions will be crucial for maintaining social order and preventing vigilantism.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment:

• Balancing Act: Ghana's foreign policy seeks to balance its relationships with traditional Western partners like the United States and the European Union with its growing economic and political ties with China and Russia. This balancing act has become more challenging as geopolitical competition between these powers intensifies, and as Ghana seeks to assert its own interests and priorities on the international stage (CSIS, 2). The ability of Ghana to maintain its traditional partnerships while also pursuing mutually beneficial relations with other actors will be crucial for advancing its development goals and maintaining its regional influence.

• Regional Leadership Role within ECOWAS: Ghana plays an important role in regional organizations such as ECOWAS, promoting regional integration and advocating for peace and stability. However, the withdrawal of several member states in 2024 has weakened the organization and created new challenges for Ghana's regional leadership. The ability of Ghana to work with other ECOWAS members to address these challenges and maintain the organization's relevance will be crucial for its foreign policy objectives.

VII. Unique to Ghana Topics:

• Vigilantism and Politics: The use of political vigilante groups by both the NPP and NDC is deeply intertwined with Ghana's political culture and poses a direct threat to its democratic stability. Though formally banned, these groups continue to operate, often engaging in violence during electoral periods, exacerbating communal tensions, and undermining public trust in law enforcement (Clingendael, 41, 44).

• The Fulbe and the Risk of Exploitation: The marginalization and stigmatization of the Fulbe community in Ghana, often perceived as "foreigners" despite their long history in the country, creates social divisions and presents a potential avenue for exploitation by extremist groups seeking to expand their influence in the region (Clingendael, 14, 32). The Fulbe's lack of political representation and access to basic services makes them particularly vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups or to engagement in illicit activities. Addressing these issues and promoting the inclusion of the Fulbe community will be essential for strengthening social cohesion and preventing conflict.

Sources Cited

• Clingendael - Netherlands Institute of International Relations. 'A beacon of democracy?' 2024.

• CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies). 'Ghana: Facing Internal and External Threats Without Citizen Support'. 2025.

• Freedom House. 'Ghana'. Freedom in the World 2024. 2024.

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 'Ghana's Presidential Contest Shows Why Democracy Requires More Than Well-Run Elections'. 2024.

• ISS (Institute for Security Studies). 'Ghana's road to rebuilding public trust starts with security reforms'. 2025.

• World Bank. '8th Ghana Economic Update: Strengthening Domestic Revenue Systems for Fiscal Sustainability'. 2024.