Republic of Namibia: Geopolitical Assessment 2025

Introduction and Overview

Namibia, located in southwestern Africa, boasts a diverse landscape ranging from the arid Namib Desert along its Atlantic coast to the savanna woodlands and grasslands in the north. Sharing borders with Angola, Zambia, and Botswana, its climate is predominantly arid and semi-arid, experiencing significant variations in rainfall. Its sparse population of approximately 2.6 million (UN DESA, 2023) comprises various ethnic groups, including the Ovambo, Kavango, Herero, and Himba, each with unique cultural and linguistic traditions.

Namibia's identity is deeply rooted in its colonial past, first under German then South African rule. This legacy continues to impact its political and socio-economic structures. Its economy traditionally relies on mining (diamonds, uranium, and other minerals) and tourism. Namibia's strategic importance stems from its natural resource wealth, its location on the Atlantic Ocean, and its status as a relatively stable democracy in a volatile region.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape:

• Economic dependence on volatile commodity prices: Namibia's fiscal revenues and economic growth are highly susceptible to fluctuations in global commodity prices, especially for its key mineral exports. This dependence creates significant economic volatility and makes long-term planning challenging. (IMF, 2023).

• Climate change impacts: The country's arid and semi-arid climate makes it increasingly exposed to the adverse effects of climate change, including drought, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. These pose risks to food security, water resources, and broader economic stability. (World Bank, 2024).

• Fiscal challenges: High public debt levels and rising interest payments significantly restrict the government's capacity for essential public investment and social spending, hindering development progress. (IMF, 2023).

• Youth unemployment and inequality: Despite a large, young population, Namibia faces high unemployment rates, particularly among youth, alongside persistent socio-economic inequality. This demographic situation presents both an opportunity and a challenge. Harnessing the potential of its young workforce will require significant investments in education, skills development, and job creation. (World Bank, 2024).

Strategic considerations for Namibia include:

• Leveraging natural resource wealth for sustainable development:

  • Maximizing returns from natural capital: This entails diversifying the economy beyond raw material extraction, adding value through downstream processing, and ensuring good governance and transparency in the natural resource sector.

  • Balancing economic growth with environmental protection: Implementing sustainable resource management practices is crucial to mitigate environmental damage and preserve natural capital for future generations.

• Harnessing the potential of green hydrogen and renewable energy:

  • Green Hydrogen Project (GHP): This ambitious initiative leverages Namibia's abundant solar and wind resources to produce green hydrogen, a clean energy source with growing global demand. This project has the potential to create jobs, attract foreign investment, and diversify the economy. However, successful implementation hinges on addressing challenges related to infrastructure development, technology transfer, and financing.

  • Renewable energy sources: Beyond green hydrogen, Namibia has significant potential for solar, wind, and hydropower generation. Expanding renewable energy capacity can enhance energy security, reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, and contribute to climate change mitigation efforts.

• Strengthening regional integration:

  • SACU: As a member of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Namibia benefits from a larger regional market and harmonized trade policies. However, the dependence on SACU revenues can also create vulnerabilities to economic shocks in other member states.

  • AfCFTA: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers immense potential to boost intra-African trade and promote economic growth. Active participation and successful implementation of the AfCFTA agreement are crucial for Namibia to fully reap its benefits.

• Promoting social cohesion:

  • Addressing inequality and historical grievances: Namibia's history of colonialism and apartheid has created deep-seated inequalities that continue to fuel social divisions. Implementing inclusive policies that address these inequalities and historical grievances is crucial to foster social cohesion and long-term stability.

  • Empowering marginalized communities: Targeted interventions are needed to empower marginalized communities, such as the San people, by enhancing access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities.

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• German colonial rule (1884-1915): This period was marked by brutal suppression, culminating in the genocide of the Herero and Nama people. This horrific event continues to shape Namibia's national identity and its relations with Germany, with ongoing calls for reparations (Foreign Policy, March 13, 2024, p. 1).

• South African rule (1915-1990): Following World War I, South Africa administered Namibia under a League of Nations mandate. This period saw the implementation of apartheid policies, further entrenching racial segregation and inequality. The legacy of apartheid is evident in the persistent disparities in land ownership, access to resources, and socio-economic outcomes (BTI, 2024, p. 6).

• Independence (1990): Namibia gained independence in 1990 following a long liberation struggle led by SWAPO. While the transition was peaceful, the newly independent nation inherited a deeply unequal society.

II. Political Developments

• SWAPO dominance: The ruling SWAPO party has won all presidential and parliamentary elections since independence, maintaining a firm grip on power. However, its electoral support has gradually eroded in recent elections, reflecting growing dissatisfaction among some segments of the population (Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, 2023, p. 3).

• 2024 Elections: Hage Geingob re-elected for a second term; Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah elected as vice-president, later becoming first female president for SWAPO (AP News). These elections, while generally peaceful, highlighted the persistent dominance of SWAPO in the political arena.

• Internal factionalism: Divisions within SWAPO have intensified in recent years, raising concerns about potential instability within the ruling party (BTI, 2024, p. 11). The struggle for succession following Geingob's eventual departure from the presidency could exacerbate these internal tensions.

• Declining public trust: Public trust in government has deteriorated due to perceptions of corruption, economic mismanagement, and a lack of tangible improvements in people's lives (Afrobarometer, 2023, p. 118). This poses a significant challenge for the government's ability to effectively govern and implement policy reforms.

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Electoral system: Namibia uses a mixed electoral system, with some members of parliament elected directly in constituencies and others through proportional representation. This can lead to imbalances in representation. (Freedom House, 2024, p.2).

• Electronic voting machines: The use of electronic voting machines without a verifiable paper trail has raised concerns about transparency and the potential for manipulation (BTI, 2024, p. 9). Efforts to introduce a paper trail have been stalled.

• Legislative transparency: There is a lack of transparency in the legislative process, particularly regarding the approval and oversight of major infrastructure projects, such as the Green Hydrogen project. This raises concerns about accountability and potential corruption (IMF, 2023, p. 13).

• Judicial independence: While judicial independence is generally respected, the judiciary is hampered by lengthy delays in court proceedings and a substantial backlog of cases (US Department of State, 2023, p. 5). This undermines access to justice and the rule of law.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• Economic recovery and diversification: Namibia's economy is experiencing a moderate recovery driven primarily by sustained mining activity and tourism. However, the country remains heavily dependent on the extractive sector, and efforts to diversify the economy into other areas, such as manufacturing and agriculture, have been slow (African Development Bank, 2023, p. 11).

• High inequality: Namibia continues to have one of the highest levels of income inequality globally. This is largely attributed to historical legacies of colonialism and apartheid, and is a major source of social and political tension (World Bank, 2024, p. 6).

• Youth unemployment: Unemployment rates are significantly high, especially among young people, hindering the country's ability to harness its demographic dividend. The lack of job opportunities for young people can lead to social unrest and political instability (BTI, 2024, p. 16).

• Food insecurity: Climate change impacts and other factors contribute to persistent food insecurity in Namibia, particularly among vulnerable populations in rural areas. This has a direct impact on health outcomes and socio-economic development (World Food Programme, 2024, p. 7).

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Gender-based violence: Namibia faces high rates of gender-based violence, including domestic violence and sexual assault. This is a major human rights concern and requires a concerted effort from the government and civil society to address (US Department of State, 2023, p. 13).

• Prison conditions: Overcrowding, inadequate food and healthcare, and physical abuse are prevalent issues in Namibian prisons, raising concerns about human rights violations (US Department of State, 2023, p. 2). Efforts to improve prison conditions have faced resource constraints.

• Land disputes: The unequal distribution of land remains a contentious issue in Namibia. The illegal fencing of communal land exacerbates existing tensions and limits access to resources for many communities (Freedom House, 2024, p. 11).

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Currency peg to the South African rand: The Namibian dollar is pegged to the South African rand, which facilitates trade and financial integration with South Africa, but can also constrain monetary policy autonomy (IMF, 2023, p. 1).

• SACU membership: Namibia is a member of SACU, benefiting from a common market and customs union. However, the country's dependence on SACU revenues also creates vulnerabilities to economic shocks affecting other member states (IMF, 2023, p. 1).

• AfCFTA participation: Namibia is actively participating in the AfCFTA, aiming to boost intra-African trade and benefit from greater regional integration (IMF, 2023, p. 20). Successfully implementing the AfCFTA agreement will require addressing various trade and non-tariff barriers.

• International partnerships: Namibia maintains partnerships with several countries, particularly European nations and China, receiving significant development assistance and foreign direct investment (IMF, 2023, p. 8). Maintaining balanced relationships with diverse partners is key to promoting Namibia's national interests.

Sources Cited:

• African Development Bank Group. Country Focus Report: Namibia: Mobilizing Private Sector Financing for Climate Change and Green Growth. 2023

• Afrobarometer. Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 493: Africans want desperately for their governments to deliver democratic and accountable governance. 2023.

• AP News. Namibia will have its first female leader after VP wins presidential election for the ruling party. November 27, 2022.

• Bertelsmann Stiftung. BTI 2024 Country Report Namibia. 2024.

• Brookings Institution. Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for the Continent 2024. 2024.

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• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Priorities for the New U.S. Administration and Congress on Strengthening Economic Relations with Africa. 2024.

• Foreign Policy. "Namibia Calls for Reparations Talks With Germany." March 13, 2024.

• Freedom House. Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report: Namibia. 2024.

• International Monetary Fund. Namibia: 2023 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Staff Statement. December 2023.

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• United Nations Development Programme and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative. Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2024: Poverty amid Conflict. July 2024.

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• World Bank Group. Macro Poverty Outlook. April 2024.

• World Bank Group. Namibia Overview: Development news, research, data. Last Updated: 03/14/2024.

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