The Gambia: Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction

The Gambia, a small West African nation enveloped by Senegal, with a narrow Atlantic coastline, presents a complex geopolitical landscape. This geographical reality fosters a distinct national identity while also creating dependencies. Its subtropical climate, alternating rainy and dry seasons, renders it vulnerable to droughts and floods, impacting its agrarian economy. Ethnic diversity (Mandinka, Fula, Wolof, Jola, Serer) enriches its culture, but has fueled political tensions, particularly under Yahya Jammeh's rule (1994-2017). The predominantly Muslim population (~95%), with a Christian minority, influences social norms and political discourse, particularly concerning secularism and women's rights. The urban-rural divide, with key communities in Banjul, Serrekunda, and Brikama, but rural villages often lacking basic services, poses a challenge for equitable development. Its post-colonial history, marked by periods of both democratic rule and authoritarianism, has left a complex legacy of human rights abuses, weak governance, and economic vulnerability. Its strategic importance derives from its volatile regional location, ECOWAS and AU membership, and its youthful population holding both promise and peril. Its small size and limited resources necessitate innovative solutions and partnerships.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape

The Gambia faces interconnected geopolitical risks requiring careful navigation:

• Fragile Democratic Transition: The transition under President Barrow remains vulnerable to political instability, particularly given ongoing disagreements over constitutional reform.

• Economic Vulnerability: High public debt, dependence on tourism and remittances, a narrow export base, and climate change vulnerability threaten long-term economic stability.

• Security Threats: Cross-border crime, ECOMIG's presence, human rights concerns, and limited capacity create security challenges.

• Resource Governance: Balancing foreign investment interest in natural resources with sustainable resource management and avoiding neocolonial dynamics is crucial.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies:

• Indirect Rule and Entrenched Social Hierarchies: British indirect rule, operating through existing local chiefs and headmen, not only facilitated colonial administration but also reinforced pre-existing social hierarchies and ethnic inequalities, concentrating power in the hands of a select few and creating lasting power imbalances that continue to shape access to resources and opportunities. This structure disadvantaged marginalized communities, contributing to social stratification and hindering broad-based economic and political participation.

• Groundnut Monoculture and Economic Dependence: The colonial emphasis on groundnut production for export established a monoculture economy, limiting diversification and creating a dependency on global commodity prices that persists today. This dependence renders The Gambia vulnerable to external economic shocks, constrains its ability to develop a resilient and diversified economy, and hinders its progress towards achieving sustainable development goals.

• Jammeh's Legacy of Authoritarianism and Impunity: Yahya Jammeh's 22-year authoritarian rule (1994-2017) significantly weakened democratic institutions, suppressed dissent, and fostered a culture of impunity for human rights abuses and corruption. This legacy has created deep social divisions, eroded public trust in government, and posed formidable challenges for the ongoing democratic transition, including efforts to strengthen the rule of law and ensure accountability.

II. Political Developments:

• Stalled Democratic Progress: The democratic transition under President Adama Barrow, while offering a departure from Jammeh's authoritarianism, has been characterized by slow progress, political infighting, and persistent institutional weaknesses, contributing to public frustration and a sense of disillusionment.

• Constitutional Reform Deadlock: The inability to adopt a new constitution, primarily due to disagreements over presidential term limits and executive powers, hinders the consolidation of democratic gains, undermines the separation of powers, and creates uncertainty about the future political direction of the country.

• Transitional Justice Impasse: The government's inconsistent implementation of the TRRC's recommendations, which called for prosecutions for past human rights abuses and reparations for victims, has created dissatisfaction among some segments of the population and fueled calls for greater accountability and a more comprehensive approach to transitional justice.

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes:

• Weak Electoral Framework: The current electoral framework suffers from several weaknesses, including low voter turnout, the exclusion of diaspora voters, and a lack of transparency and accountability in campaign financing, which undermine the credibility and effectiveness of electoral processes.

• Institutional Capacity Deficiencies: The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) faces significant challenges related to its limited capacity and resources, hindering its ability to effectively manage voter registration, conduct elections, and enforce electoral laws. Strengthening the IEC's independence and capacity is crucial for enhancing the credibility and integrity of electoral processes.

• Judicial Reform and Rule of Law: The judiciary, while showing signs of increased independence from the executive branch, continues to face constraints related to capacity, training, resources, and case backlogs. These limitations hinder the effective administration of justice, undermine the rule of law, and create challenges in ensuring access to justice for all citizens.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors:

• Economic Stagnation and Dependence: The Gambian economy remains heavily dependent on tourism, remittances, and a limited agricultural export base, making it highly vulnerable to external shocks, climate change impacts, and fluctuations in global commodity prices. These vulnerabilities constrain economic growth and diversification efforts.

• Debt Burden and Fiscal Constraints: High levels of public debt, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and global economic downturns, severely limit the government's fiscal space, hindering its ability to invest in essential public services, such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

• Inequality and Poverty: High levels of poverty and inequality persist, particularly in rural areas, where access to basic services, education, and economic opportunities is limited. These socio-economic disparities exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and create social tensions.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics:

• Casamance Conflict Spillover: The ongoing conflict in Senegal's Casamance region poses a significant security threat to The Gambia due to cross-border movements of armed groups, refugees, and illicit goods, as well as the potential for increased tensions along the shared border.

• ECOMIG's Role and Implications: While the presence of ECOMIG has contributed to stability in the short term, its long-term impact on The Gambia's security sector and national sovereignty requires careful assessment. Concerns about potential dependence on external security forces, the effectiveness of security sector reform efforts, and the potential for friction between ECOMIG and the local population need to be addressed.

• Human Rights and Security Sector Reform: Allegations of human rights abuses by security forces, including excessive force, arbitrary arrests, and torture, continue to be reported. These allegations undermine public trust, hinder security sector reform efforts, and pose challenges in addressing security threats effectively while respecting human rights.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment:

• Balancing Regional Integration with International Partnerships: The Gambia must carefully navigate its foreign policy relationships, balancing its commitment to regional integration within ECOWAS and the African Union with its engagement with external partners, including traditional Western allies and emerging powers like China and Türkiye.

• Senegal Relationship: Managing the complex relationship with Senegal, including cooperation on issues of mutual interest such as border security, trade, and resource management, while also addressing potential points of tension, is crucial for The Gambia's stability and development.

• Foreign Investment and National Interests: Attracting foreign investment while protecting national interests and ensuring that such investments contribute to sustainable development requires a strategic approach, a commitment to transparency and accountability, and careful consideration of the potential risks and benefits of foreign engagement.

VII. Unique to Country Topics:

• FGM: Female genital mutilation (FGM) remains a deeply entrenched cultural practice, despite being illegal. While legislation exists, enforcement is weak, and social norms and beliefs continue to perpetuate FGM in some communities, particularly in rural areas. The recent attempt to overturn the existing anti-FGM law in 2024 highlighted the ongoing challenges in eradicating this harmful practice and the need for stronger political will and community engagement.

• Casamance Conflict: The ongoing low-intensity conflict in Senegal's Casamance region poses a risk to The Gambia's stability due to the porous border, the presence of refugees, and the potential for the conflict to spill over into Gambian territory. The presence of MFDC rebels in the border region and their alleged involvement in illicit activities like timber trafficking further exacerbate this risk.

• Small State Dynamics: The Gambia's small size, limited resources, and small elite create unique governance challenges. Limited human capital and expertise necessitate strategic partnerships and reliance on external assistance. The small size of the elite can lead to personalized politics and a concentration of power, potentially hindering democratic consolidation. At the same time, however, the close-knit nature of Gambian society can foster social cohesion and consensus-building.

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