The Gambia: Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction

The Gambia, a small West African nation enveloped by Senegal, with a narrow Atlantic coastline, presents a complex geopolitical landscape. This geographical reality fosters a distinct national identity while also creating dependencies. Its subtropical climate, alternating rainy and dry seasons, renders it vulnerable to droughts and floods, impacting its agrarian economy. Ethnic diversity (Mandinka, Fula, Wolof, Jola, Serer) enriches its culture, but has fueled political tensions, particularly under Yahya Jammeh's rule (1994-2017). The predominantly Muslim population (~95%), with a Christian minority, influences social norms and political discourse, particularly concerning secularism and women's rights. The urban-rural divide, with key communities in Banjul, Serrekunda, and Brikama, but rural villages often lacking basic services, poses a challenge for equitable development. Its post-colonial history, marked by periods of both democratic rule and authoritarianism, has left a complex legacy of human rights abuses, weak governance, and economic vulnerability. Its strategic importance derives from its volatile regional location, ECOWAS and AU membership, and its youthful population holding both promise and peril. Its small size and limited resources necessitate innovative solutions and partnerships.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape

The Gambia faces interconnected geopolitical risks requiring careful navigation:

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies:

II. Political Developments:

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes:

IV. Socio-Economic Factors:

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics:

VI. Foreign Policy Environment:

VII. Unique to Country Topics:

Sources Cited: