Republic of Cameroon Geopolitical Assessment: 2025

Introduction and Overview

Cameroon, situated in Central Africa, presents a unique case study in post-colonial state development. Its diverse geography, encompassing arid plains, volcanic mountains, and rainforest, earns it the nickname "Africa in Miniature," while also driving regional disparities and influencing vulnerability to climate change, which are all important factors in assessing the country's political landscape. The country's climate is equally varied, ranging from tropical along the coast to semi-arid in the north, leading to uneven agricultural productivity and increasing competition for resources like water, which exacerbates tensions between communities.

Cameroon’s population of ~28 million comprises over 250 distinct ethnic groups, creating a complex social fabric (NRC, 5 Things). Key communities include the Francophone majority and the Anglophone minority, primarily located in the Northwest and Southwest regions. This division is a direct consequence of Cameroon's unique colonial history, with its territory divided between Britain and France after World War I following Germany's earlier colonization in the late 19th century (NRC, 5 Things). This bifurcated colonial legacy resulted in the imposition of different legal and administrative systems, language differences in education, and socio-cultural disparities. This split remains a major fault line in Cameroonian politics and society, contributing significantly to the ongoing Anglophone Crisis.

Cameroon's economy, though resource-rich (oil, timber, minerals, agricultural commodities like cocoa), has struggled to achieve inclusive growth and faces considerable development challenges. Its strategic location as a trade hub for Central Africa makes it geopolitically significant, but its internal stability is increasingly fragile.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape:

Key risks threatening Cameroon's stability and development include:

• Political Instability and Succession Risk: President Paul Biya's advanced age (91 in 2024) and long tenure (since 1982) create profound uncertainty surrounding succession (Atlantic Council). His infrequent public appearances and reclusiveness raise further concerns about his health and capacity to govern, fueling speculation about his succession plans and prompting maneuvering within the ruling CPDM party (Atlantic Council). The lack of transparent mechanisms for leadership transition within the CPDM further exacerbates this risk, and Biya’s tight grip on power has stifled the emergence of potential successors (BTI 2024). The combination of these factors creates a dangerous power vacuum, with the potential for political instability, social unrest, and even violent conflict following Biya’s eventual departure from the political scene. This instability could further empower extremist groups like Boko Haram or escalate the Anglophone Crisis.

• Conflict and Insecurity: Cameroon is plagued by several protracted conflicts that threaten its stability and hinder human development.

  • The Anglophone Crisis: This conflict, stemming from long-standing grievances over the marginalization of the Anglophone minority, has escalated significantly since 2016 (Global Centre, Cameroon). Initially peaceful protests by lawyers, teachers, and students demanding greater linguistic and cultural recognition were met with violent repression by government forces, leading to the emergence of armed separatist groups and escalating into an armed conflict in 2017 (Global Centre, Cameroon; HRW, World Report). Both government forces and separatists have committed serious human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and the use of child soldiers, displacing over 700,000 people and creating a humanitarian crisis with over 1.7 million in need of assistance (HRW, World Report; NRC, 5 Things).

  • Boko Haram Insurgency: The Boko Haram insurgency in the Far North region, along Cameroon’s border with Nigeria, poses a persistent threat to regional stability. The group, known for its violent attacks on civilians and security forces, has expanded its operations into Cameroon since 2009, causing thousands of deaths and widespread displacement (ISS, Cameroon’s Far North; IMF, 2024). The porous border facilitates cross-border movement of fighters and weapons, making it difficult for Cameroonian security forces to contain the insurgency (NRC, 5 Things).

• Economic Crisis and Debt: Cameroon's economy remains fragile despite its natural resource wealth. Dependence on commodity exports, especially oil, leaves the country vulnerable to global price fluctuations, exacerbating its current account deficit and limiting fiscal space (World Bank, Overview). The fiscal challenges are compounded by weak revenue mobilization efforts, a persistent budget deficit, and a growing public debt burden, which stood at 44.5% of GDP in 2023 (IMF, 2024; World Bank, Overview). These structural weaknesses constrain public spending on essential services and social welfare programs, undermining human development and potentially fueling social unrest (World Bank, Overview). Cameroon’s debt distress rating by the IMF signals a high risk of debt distress, limiting access to financing for development projects (IMF, 2024).

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• Bifurcated Colonial Heritage: Cameroon's colonial history under German, British, and French rule has left a deep and lasting imprint on its political and social fabric. The country’s division into British and French mandates after World War I created sharp linguistic, legal, and cultural divides between the Anglophone and Francophone communities (NRC, 5 Things). This bifurcation is central to understanding Cameroon's current political landscape, as it underlies the Anglophone Crisis and contributes significantly to social divisions and political instability.

• Post-Independence Struggles: After independence, Cameroon continued to face challenges in building a unified national identity and establishing effective governance structures. The centralization of power under President Ahmadou Ahidjo in the 1960s, followed by President Paul Biya's even longer rule since 1982, has resulted in a political system characterized by limited political pluralism and weak institutional checks and balances (BTI 2024). This centralized system has exacerbated ethnic tensions and fueled grievances, particularly among the Anglophone minority who feel marginalized and discriminated against.

II. Political Developments

• Authoritarianism and Limited Political Space: Cameroon is an electoral autocracy with weak democratic institutions. President Biya's tight grip on power has stifled political dissent and limited the space for opposition parties and civil society (BTI 2024; Freedom House, Cameroon). This concentration of power has facilitated corruption, undermined the rule of law, and fueled social unrest, particularly in the Anglophone regions (BTI 2024; Freedom House, Cameroon).

• Ethnic Politics and Patronage: Ethnic politics and patronage networks play a significant role in Cameroon's political system. President Biya has favored his own ethnic group, the Beti, in key government positions and has used patronage to maintain political support (BTI 2024). This has exacerbated ethnic tensions and fueled grievances among other ethnic groups who feel excluded from power and resources.

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Weak Democratic Institutions: Cameroon's democratic institutions, including the parliament and judiciary, lack independence and are often influenced by the executive branch (BTI 2024; Freedom House, Cameroon). The president appoints judges and can dismiss them at will, and the ruling CPDM party dominates the parliament, limiting its ability to hold the executive accountable (Freedom House, Cameroon). These institutional weaknesses undermine the rule of law and hinder efforts to address corruption and human rights abuses.

• Controversial Elections: Recent elections, including the 2018 presidential election and the 2023 senatorial elections, have been marred by irregularities, low voter turnout, and accusations of fraud, raising serious concerns about the credibility of the electoral process (Freedom House, Cameroon; BTI 2024). The exclusion of opposition parties from participating fully in elections further undermines the democratic process and fuels political tensions.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• Poverty and Inequality: Cameroon faces widespread poverty and high levels of income inequality, with almost half of the population living below the national poverty line (World Bank, Overview). These socioeconomic challenges are deeply intertwined with political instability, as poverty and inequality can fuel social unrest and create conditions conducive to conflict.

• Dependence on Extractive Industries: Cameroon's economy remains heavily dependent on the extraction of natural resources, such as oil and timber, with limited diversification into other sectors (World Bank, Overview; BTI 2024, 17). This dependence makes the country vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations and has contributed to environmental degradation and social inequalities. The revenues generated from these industries have not been effectively used to promote inclusive growth or sustainable development.

• Unemployment and Underemployment: Cameroon faces high rates of unemployment and underemployment, especially among youth, who make up a significant proportion of the population (BTI 2024). The lack of job opportunities has fueled social and economic frustrations, contributing to unrest and the rise of extremist groups.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Anglophone Crisis and Human Rights Abuses: The protracted Anglophone Crisis in the Northwest and Southwest regions continues to be a major source of instability and violence, with both government forces and separatist groups committing serious human rights abuses against civilians, including extrajudicial killings, torture, sexual violence, and the use of child soldiers (HRW, World Report; Global Centre, Cameroon). These abuses have created a deep humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands of people displaced and in need of assistance (NRC, 5 Things).

• Boko Haram’s Expansion and Regional Instability: Boko Haram’s continued presence in the Far North region destabilizes the area and poses a significant threat to regional security (ISS, Cameroon’s Far North). The group’s violent attacks on civilians and military installations and its involvement in illicit activities such as drug and arms trafficking have created a climate of fear and undermined development efforts (ISS, Cameroon’s Far North). The group's influence extends beyond Cameroon’s borders, contributing to regional instability and the displacement of populations across the Lake Chad Basin region.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Balancing Act Between Great Powers: Cameroon's foreign policy is characterized by a delicate balancing act between traditional Western partners, including France and the United States, and emerging powers like China and Russia (Atlantic Council; BTI 2024, 32). The country seeks to leverage this complex geopolitical landscape to secure development assistance, attract investments, and maintain stability. However, this strategy also carries risks, as aligning too closely with one power could alienate others and make the country vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.

• Regional Security Challenges: Cameroon plays an active role in regional security initiatives, such as the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) aimed at combating Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin region (BTI 2024, 32). However, the country’s limited capacity and resources, coupled with regional instability and cross-border tensions, make it difficult for Cameroon to effectively address security challenges on its own.

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Efforts: Cameroon’s diverse geography and climate make it highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which have exacerbated extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and landslides (World Bank, Economic Update; IMF, 2024). These events have devastated infrastructure, displaced populations, and threatened food security, particularly in the northern regions. While the government has developed a national climate change adaptation plan, implementation has been slow, and resources remain limited.

• Digital Transformation and Cybersecurity Risks: Cameroon has embarked on a path of digital transformation, with increasing adoption of digital technologies in various sectors, including finance (Carnegie, Digital Finance). This digitalization drive, however, also presents new challenges. Limited internet access, low digital literacy, and weak cybersecurity capacity make the country vulnerable to cybercrime and data breaches.

• Forest Governance and Illegal Logging: Cameroon's vast forests are crucial for biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation, but unsustainable logging practices and weak forest governance threaten these vital resources (World Bank, Economic Update). The country is the largest producer of timber in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), but illegal logging and corruption continue to undermine efforts to promote sustainable forest management and generate revenues for the state.

Sources Cited

• 2024 Bertelsmann Stiftung's Transformation Index (BTI 2024).

• 2024 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: "Security and Trust in Africa's Digital Financial Inclusion Landscape".

• 2024 Freedom House: "Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report".

• 2024 Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect: "Cameroon".

• 2024 Human Rights Watch: “World Report 2024: Cameroon”.

• 2024 IMF (International Monetary Fund): "Cameroon, Sixth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility Arrangements".

• 2024 Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC): "5 things to know about the crisis in Cameroon".

• 2024 World Bank: “Cameroon Overview: Development news, research, data”.

• 2025 World Bank: "Cameroon Economic Update”.

• Atlantic Council: "Cameroon may soon lurch into crisis".

• ISS (Institute for Security Studies): "Has Cameroon's Far North become a drug stronghold?”.