Togolese Republic: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Togo, nestled between Ghana, Benin, and Burkina Faso in West Africa, presents a complex and often contradictory picture. Its varied geography, from the dry northern savanna to the humid coastal regions, influences its agricultural sector and creates diverse livelihoods. A relatively small country with a population nearing nine million (World Bank, 2024), Togo boasts a youthful demographic; over 70% are under 30 years old, highlighting both the potential and the peril of its demographic dividend. This youthful population consists of over 30 different ethnic groups, primarily the Kabyé in the north and the Éwé in the south (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024), a legacy of arbitrary colonial borders that continues to shape political dynamics. The history of Togo has been indelibly marked by authoritarianism, initially under German colonization (1884-1914) followed by French rule (1922-1960) which institutionalized ethnic divisions and weakened governance structures. Since independence in 1960, Togo has been dominated by the Gnassingbé family dynasty, who have maintained control through a combination of electoral manipulation, control over the security forces, and suppression of political opposition (US Dept. of State, 2024; Freedom House, 2024). Togo's deep-water port of Lomé, coupled with its location on the Gulf of Guinea, gives it strategic economic importance as a regional trade hub, however, its vulnerability to illicit trafficking, security threats, and dependence on international aid makes it a precarious player in a volatile region.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape

• Spillover of Sahel Instability: The rise of violent extremist organizations (VEOs) in the Sahel region, particularly in neighboring Burkina Faso, poses a major threat to Togo’s northern borders. These groups exploit porous borders and weak governance structures to expand their activities, increasing the risk of cross-border attacks and instability within Togo (US Dept. of State, 2024).

• Internal Security Challenges: Togo faces persistent internal security challenges stemming from the government’s restrictions on political freedoms and civil liberties, coupled with a history of electoral irregularities. This creates a fertile ground for social unrest and political instability, particularly among marginalized communities and the politically active youth (Freedom House, 2024).

• Maritime Security and Illicit Trafficking: Togo's coastal location makes it vulnerable to maritime piracy and illicit trafficking, undermining its economic stability and its position as a regional trade hub. The port of Lomé, a critical economic artery, is particularly susceptible to these threats (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024).

• Economic Vulnerability: Togo's dependence on foreign aid and global commodity prices makes its economy vulnerable to external shocks. High debt levels and limited fiscal space constrain the government's ability to invest in sustainable development and address pressing socio-economic challenges (World Bank, 2024).

• Climate Change Impacts: Togo's agricultural sector, which employs a significant portion of the population, is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, including droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures. These climate shocks can exacerbate existing food insecurity, displacement, and economic hardship (World Bank, 2024).

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies:

• Colonial Legacy of Authoritarianism: German colonization (1884-1914), followed by French rule (1922-1960), established a legacy of authoritarian governance structures in Togo, undermining the development of democratic institutions and creating a power vacuum that has been exploited by post-colonial rulers (US Dept. of State, 2024).

• Gnassingbé Dynasty and Political Repression: Since seizing power in a 1963 coup, the Gnassingbé family has maintained its grip on power through electoral manipulation, control over the security forces, and suppression of political opposition, creating a climate of fear and limiting political freedoms and civil liberties (Freedom House, 2024).

• Ethnic Divisions and Marginalization: The Gnassingbé regime's favoritism towards the Kabyé ethnic group has exacerbated existing ethnic tensions and marginalized other communities, particularly the Éwé in the south. This has contributed to political instability and social divisions (Freedom House, 2024).

II. Political Developments:

• Contentious Constitutional Reform (2024): The recent constitutional reforms that transformed Togo from a presidential to a parliamentary system and abolished direct presidential elections have been met with widespread criticism from the opposition and civil society. They view these reforms as a thinly veiled attempt to circumvent presidential term limits and maintain the existing power structure under the leadership of President Faure Gnassingbé (ISS Africa, 2024).

• Suppression of Dissent and Political Repression: Despite claims of democratic progress, the Togolese government continues to restrict political freedoms, suppress dissent, and harass opposition members. Arbitrary arrests and detentions are common, including instances of security forces targeting civil society leaders and journalists for their critical reporting (US Dept. of State, 2024). Security forces have monitored and occasionally raided opposition and media offices (Freedom House, 2024).

• Postponed Elections and Political Uncertainty: The postponement of the December 2023 legislative and regional elections to 2024 raised concerns about the government's commitment to democratic processes. This delay can exacerbate existing political tensions and create uncertainty about the future direction of the country (Freedom House, 2024). Government efforts to label opposition members as terrorists have led to the exile or imprisonment of political opponents (Foreign Policy, 2024).

• Targeting of Fulbe Community: Human rights groups have reported increased arbitrary arrests and human rights abuses against members of the Fulbe community, a nomadic pastoralist group residing primarily in northern Togo. These actions, often justified by the government's counterterrorism efforts, raise concerns about ethnic profiling and discrimination (US Dept. of State, 2024). The targeting is reportedly spurred by “growing public suspicion and hate speech” (US Dept of State, 2024).

• Military Influence and Potential Instability: The military's outsized influence in Togolese politics, historically a key pillar of the Gnassingbé regime's power, remains a concern. The December 2022 firing of the defense minister and the subsequent reassignment of the ministry's responsibilities to the president's office underscore the close ties between the regime and the military, raising questions about the potential for further instability (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024).

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes:

• Dominance of Ruling Party (UNIR): The ruling party, UNIR, maintains a firm grip on power through its dominance of the National Assembly. The 2024 legislative elections, marked by allegations of fraud and irregularities, further cemented UNIR's control, raising concerns about the fairness and credibility of the electoral process and limiting opportunities for political pluralism (ISS Africa, 2024).

• Opposition Boycott and Marginalization: The opposition's boycott of the 2018 legislative elections, citing unmet demands for electoral and constitutional reforms, resulted in their minimal representation in the National Assembly. This has weakened their ability to challenge the government and effectively advocate for democratic reforms (ISS Africa, 2024). Political opposition faces intimidation, surveillance, and arbitrary arrest and detention (Amnesty International, 2024).

• Judicial Weakness and Lack of Independence: The Togolese judiciary lacks independence and impartiality, with the executive branch, particularly the presidency, exerting considerable influence. This undermines the rule of law and due process, creating an environment of impunity for government officials and security forces accused of human rights abuses (US Dept. of State, 2024). There are reports that “lawyers and litigants bribed judges” (US Dept of State, 2024).

• Pervasive Corruption and Lack of Accountability: Corruption is a pervasive issue in Togo, hindering development and eroding public trust in institutions. The country's low ranking on Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index (130/180) reflects the magnitude of this challenge. The Court of Auditors has identified significant irregularities in the management of COVID-19 funds (BTI, 2024), and government responses have been inadequate (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024). Allegations of corruption and cronyism in government hiring and procurement processes persist, exacerbating existing inequalities and undermining public trust (UN DESA, 2025).

IV. Socio-Economic Factors:

• High Poverty and Inequality: Poverty levels in Togo remain high, with 56.9% of the population living below the poverty line (World Bank, 2024). Inequality is a persistent issue, particularly between rural (58.8%) and urban (26.5%) areas, exacerbating social and economic disparities and hindering the country's development progress (World Bank, 2024). There is an “increasingly visible divide between haves and have-nots” (Brookings, 2025).

• Informal Sector Dominance and Unemployment: The dominance of the informal sector, employing over 90% of the workforce, creates challenges for regulating the labor market, implementing effective social protection measures, and generating tax revenue (BTI, 2024). High unemployment (4.1%), especially among the youth, exacerbates economic hardship and fuels social unrest (World Bank, 2024). As the Brookings Institute notes, unemployment must be addressed as a “moral” issue (Brookings, 2025).

• High Inflation and Rising Debt Levels: High inflation (8.0%) and rising public debt levels (66.3% of GDP) strain public resources and limit the government's capacity to address critical social and economic needs. Rising debt service costs are a major concern, crowding out spending on essential services such as health and education (BTI, 2024; World Bank, 2024).

• Fiscal Risks and Economic Vulnerability: The IMF highlights fiscal risks associated with Togo's public-private partnerships (PPPs) and domestic subsidies, indicating a need for greater oversight and fiscal prudence. The country's dependence on global commodity prices and external financing makes its economy vulnerable to external shocks (IMF, 2024).

• Declining Trust and Dissatisfaction with Services: Public trust in government institutions is low, and there is widespread dissatisfaction with the quality and availability of essential public services, particularly in rural areas. Perceptions of corruption, impunity for government officials, and lack of responsiveness to citizens' concerns further erode public trust (BTI, 2024). An Afrobarometer survey highlighted declining trust in government and dissatisfaction with public services, with only 26% approving of the government's handling of the economy (Brookings, 2025).

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics:

• Escalation of Violence in the North: The presence of armed groups, including jihadist organizations, in northern Togo has escalated in recent years, posing a significant threat to security and stability. The government's militarized response, marked by human rights abuses, has further fueled the conflict (US Dept. of State, 2024). The government continues to enforce its security presence throughout the Savanes region with checkpoints and procedures, though an office of the UNHCR remains absent in this northern region (US Dept of State, 2024).

• Internal Displacement and Humanitarian Crisis: The escalation of violence in northern Togo has led to a surge in internal displacement, creating a humanitarian crisis. The government's order to evacuate villages in the northeast to establish a military zone has resulted in thousands of people fleeing their homes (US Dept. of State, 2024). The government has limited access to this region for humanitarian organizations and journalists (US Dept of State, 2024). Roughly 20,000 Burkinabe refugees remain in northern Togo.

• Civil-Military Relations and Risk of Instability: The complex relationship between the Togolese government and the military, which has historically been a key instrument of the Gnassingbé regime's power, remains a source of potential instability. The 2022 firing of the defense minister and the subsequent reassignment of the ministry's responsibilities to the president's office highlight the ongoing power dynamics between the civilian and military leadership (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024).

VI. Foreign Policy Environment:

• Balancing Act Between Traditional and Emerging Partners: Togo maintains close security ties with its former colonial power, France, while also seeking to expand its partnerships with emerging powers such as Türkiye and the United States. This balancing act reflects the country's strategic positioning in a multipolar world and its efforts to secure both security assistance and development aid (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024). Togo has also begun receiving aid from Russia, though the level of support remains limited for now. These competing influences raise the risk of the country becoming another staging ground in the battle for geopolitical influence between the US, Russia, and China.

• Regional Engagement and Mediation Efforts: Togo actively participates in regional initiatives such as the Accra Initiative and ECOWAS, reflecting its commitment to addressing shared security challenges and promoting stability in West Africa (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024). The country has also played a mediating role in regional conflicts, including between Ivory Coast and Mali, and in Burkina Faso and Niger, showcasing its diplomatic efforts and raising its profile within the region (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Togo, 2023).

• Commonwealth Membership and International Outreach: Togo's membership in the Commonwealth underscores its efforts to diversify its partnerships and strengthen its engagement with international organizations. This membership provides the country with a platform to raise its concerns on issues such as human rights, security, and development and can potentially provide access to additional financial and technical assistance (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024).

• Pressure from International Partners on Governance: Togo faces pressure from international partners, particularly the United States and the European Union, to address human rights concerns and improve governance. This pressure, often tied to aid and trade preferences, can influence the government's policies and actions, but also creates tensions between national sovereignty and international norms (US Dept. of State, 2024).

VII. Unique to Country Topics:

• Media Landscape and Freedom of Expression: Togo's media landscape is marked by a complex interplay between constitutional guarantees of press freedom and government restrictions in practice. While numerous independent media outlets operate in the country, restrictive press laws, a history of impunity for crimes against journalists, and instances of government interference, including the arbitrary suspension of newspapers and arrests of journalists, have created a chilling effect on independent reporting and limited freedom of expression (US Dept. of State, 2024; Freedom House, 2024). Internet service providers routinely throttled internet speeds before and during protests, and media offices were subject to monitoring and attacks from government forces (Amnesty International, 2024). The murder of a journalist and the attempted murder of another were reported by the government (US Dept of State, 2024). The regime reportedly employs trolls to spread misinformation and disinformation online (BTI, 2024).

• Regional Mediator Role: Togo has played a unique role in regional diplomacy, serving as a mediator between ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States on security and development issues in the region. This mediation role has raised Togo’s profile within the international community and given it a platform to advocate for its interests in regional affairs (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024).

• Active Peacekeeping Participation: Togo's participation in United Nations peacekeeping missions across Africa, including in Mali, the Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, highlights its commitment to regional stability and its efforts to strengthen its ties with international partners. These deployments also provide valuable training and experience for the Togolese military, enhancing its capacity and strengthening civil-military relations (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024).

Sources Cited

• Africa Center for Strategic Studies. “Togo – Africa Center.” 2024.

• BTI. “BTI 2024 Country Report.” Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

• Freedom House. “Togo: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report.” 2024.

• IMF. “IMF Executive Board Completes the First Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Togo.” 2024.

• ISS Africa. "Hasty constitutional reforms deepen tensions in Togo." 2024.

• Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Togo. "Review of the Year 2023 of Togolese Diplomacy." 2023.

• US Dept. of State. “Togo 2023 Human Rights Report.” 2024.

• World Bank. “Togo Overview: Development news, research, data.” 2024.