Republic of Chad: Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Chad, a landlocked nation in North Central Africa, presents a complex geopolitical landscape shaped by its diverse geography, demographics, and historical legacies. Its terrain ranges from the Sahara Desert in the north to the fertile Sudanese savannah in the south, influencing a climate that varies significantly in rainfall and temperature across the country. This geographic diversity has contributed to Chad's ethnic and linguistic heterogeneity, with over 200 distinct ethnic groups comprising its population of over 17 million. Among these, the Zaghawa, the dominant political group; the Sara, the largest ethnic group in the south; and various Arab groups in the east and north, are key communities. Chad's post-colonial history has been marked by political instability, including recurring coups and authoritarian rule, interwoven with periods of economic growth driven primarily by oil exports, which account for the bulk of its export revenue and government finances. Its strategic location, bordering conflict-ridden countries including Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Niger, makes its stability vital not only to regional security but also to international counterterrorism efforts. This combination of internal vulnerabilities and external pressures creates a dynamic and often volatile context for understanding Chad's geopolitical landscape.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• French Colonialism (1890s-1960): French colonial rule significantly shaped Chad's current political landscape. The French employed a "divide and rule" strategy, exacerbating pre-existing tensions between northern nomadic Muslim groups and southern sedentary Christian and animist populations through the implementation of the “indigénat” system. This system created a hierarchy of power that privileged certain ethnic groups while marginalizing others, contributing to the deep social and political divisions that persist today. The indigénat system had several components, including forced labor, discriminatory taxation, and restrictions on political participation for indigenous populations, which created resentment and resistance among Chadians.

• Post-Independence Instability (1960-present): Chad's post-colonial history has been marked by cyclical instability including recurring military coups, authoritarian regimes, and civil conflicts. These struggles for power and resources are rooted in the weak state capacity inherited from the colonial era, exacerbated by the deep social and political divisions caused by the indigénat system. The assassination of the first president, François Tombalbaye, in a coup in 1975, set a precedent for violent transfers of power and undermined efforts to establish stable democratic institutions. Subsequent decades saw a cycle of instability, with various armed groups and rebellions challenging the central government's authority.

• Legacy of France (1960-2025): Despite gaining independence, France maintained a significant military presence and political influence in Chad. The country hosted French troops and served as a key base for France's operations in the Sahel region. French military presence was seen by some as a stabilizing force, while others criticized it as neocolonialism and interference in Chad's internal affairs. France’s departure from Chad in 2025 marks a turning point in the relationship between the two countries and raises questions about Chad's future security arrangements and its role in regional stability. The departure also highlights Chad's growing desire for greater strategic autonomy and a diversification of its partnerships, as the country increasingly seeks support from other global powers, including Russia.

II. Political Developments

• 2021 Coup and Aftermath: The death of long-time president Idriss Déby in April 2021 triggered a military coup led by his son, Mahamat Idriss Déby. This dynastic succession, bypassing constitutional provisions for a civilian interim leader, sparked widespread protests. The junta's subsequent actions, including suspending the constitution and consolidating power in the Transitional Military Council (TMC), further fueled tensions. While Déby initially promised an 18-month transition to democratic rule, this timeline was later extended, raising concerns about his commitment to democratic principles.

• National Dialogue and Political Maneuvering: The 2022 National Dialogue, organized by Déby, became a focal point of political contestation. It was boycotted by major opposition groups, who viewed it as a non-inclusive process designed to legitimize Déby’s rule and delay elections. The extension of the transitional period and the decision to allow Déby to run in future elections further fueled opposition grievances, contributing to a polarized political landscape. This has created an opening for external actors to influence the political process, as Déby has sought to balance domestic opposition with securing international support for his regime.

• Escalation of Violence: The October 2022 protests, marked by violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces, underscored the fragility of the political situation and the deep-seated grievances against Déby’s rule. The crackdown, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of civilians and mass arrests, raised international concern about the human rights situation in Chad.

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• May 2024 Presidential Election: The election, characterized by allegations of irregularities and restrictions on political participation, served primarily as a tool for Déby to legitimize his rule and secure international recognition. The opposition's boycott and the limited political space undermined the election's credibility as a step towards democratic transition.

• December 2024 Legislative and Local Elections: These elections were also marred by irregularities and restrictions on political participation, further consolidating Déby’s hold on power and benefiting the ruling party. The opposition’s boycott, limited media coverage, and the lack of independent observation missions raised questions about the fairness and transparency of the electoral process. These elections, characterized by their non-inclusive nature and their limited impact on the country’s political trajectory, further entrenched the existing power structure.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• Oil Dependence and Economic Challenges: Chad's economy remains heavily reliant on oil revenue, making it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. This dependence has limited economic diversification and job creation in other sectors. Declining oil prices and production in recent years have exacerbated fiscal challenges, as government revenues have fallen, while public debt has risen. (World Bank, 2024)

• Poverty, Inequality, and Food Insecurity: Despite being an oil-producing country, Chad faces high levels of poverty, inequality, and food insecurity. These challenges are particularly acute in rural areas, where a majority of the population lives and where access to basic services, education, and healthcare is limited. The southern regions of Chad are especially vulnerable, as they also face greater risks from climate change, including droughts, floods, and extreme weather events. These factors contribute to social and political instability, creating a breeding ground for grievances that can be exploited by political actors and armed groups.

• Development Challenges: Chad lags behind in infrastructure development, including roads, electricity, and water access. These deficits not only hinder economic development, but also exacerbate existing inequalities, as rural populations face greater challenges in accessing essential services and opportunities. The influx of refugees from neighboring countries further strains the already limited resources, exacerbating
  tensions between host communities and refugees.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Instability and Armed Groups: Chad faces a complex and multi-layered security landscape, with threats from various armed groups and rebel movements. The northern and eastern regions of the country are particularly vulnerable, as they share porous borders with neighboring countries facing instability and conflict. These include rebel groups operating in Libya and Sudan, as well as terrorist organizations such as Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa, which are active in the Lake Chad region. These groups exploit the weak state capacity and the lack of security presence in these regions to carry out attacks, recruit new members, and engage in illicit activities such as arms trafficking and kidnappings.

• Conflict Drivers: Inter-communal conflicts between herding and farming communities over scarce resources, land, and water are a persistent problem in Chad, often escalating into violence. These conflicts are exacerbated by the effects of climate change, including droughts and floods, which increase resource scarcity and put further pressure on communities.

• Regional Spillover: The conflict in neighboring Sudan has further destabilized Chad's already fragile security situation. The influx of refugees has strained resources and increased tensions between ethnic groups. In addition, Chad's involvement in the conflict, including its support for the Rapid Support Forces, has strained its relations with other regional actors, further isolating the country.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Balancing Act with Great Powers: Chad has to navigate a complex foreign policy environment, balancing its relations with traditional allies such as France and the United States, while also engaging with new partners such as Russia, China, and Gulf states. The country is looking to diversify its security and economic partnerships to reduce its dependence on France, which has historically played a dominant role in its affairs.

• Shifting Alliances: Chad's expulsion of US troops in 2024 and pursuit of military cooperation with Russia are signs of its shifting alliances. This move reflects Chad's growing frustration with Western policies in the Sahel and a desire to explore alternative partnerships to address security challenges. However, these developments have raised concerns about the influence of Russia in the region and potential implications for Chad's relations with traditional allies.

• Regional Dynamics: Chad plays a significant role in regional security initiatives, such as the G5 Sahel and the Multinational Joint Task Force in the Lake Chad Basin. However, its involvement in the conflict in neighboring Sudan, including its support for the Rapid Support Forces, has complicated its relations with other regional actors.

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• Bargaining Strategy with the U.S.: Chad's expulsion of US troops in 2024 was part of a broader strategy to renegotiate its partnership with the United States. By expelling troops, Déby aimed to gain leverage in negotiations for increased security assistance and a stronger commitment from the U.S. to the Chadian government.

• New Security Partnership with Russia: Chad's exploration of a security partnership with Russia reflects a broader trend of African countries seeking alternative security partners in the face of growing insecurity and instability. This move comes at a time when Russia's influence in the Sahel region is increasing, raising concerns about potential implications for regional stability and for Chad's relations with Western partners.

• Internal Power Dynamics: The power struggle within the Chadian army and the ruling elite, dominated by the Zaghawa ethnic group, has an important influence on Déby's policy choices, both domestically and internationally. These internal dynamics can create tensions and complicate efforts to build consensus on key national priorities.

• Strained Relations with France: Chad's relationship with France, its former colonial power, is strained due to disagreements over strategy in the Sahel and perceptions of neocolonialism. The withdrawal of French troops from neighboring countries has increased pressure on Chad to shoulder more responsibility for regional security, while also raising concerns about the potential spillover of instability from the Sahel into Chad.

• Vulnerability and Dependence: Chad remains highly vulnerable to external shocks, including those from conflicts and instability in neighboring countries, as well as from climate change. The country's dependence on oil revenue and foreign aid makes it difficult to address these challenges effectively, and highlights the need for stronger domestic institutions and policies to build resilience.

Sources Cited

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