Republic of Senegal: Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Senegal, situated at the westernmost tip of Africa, stands out for its diverse terrain ranging from the arid Sahel in the north to lush Casamance in the south, influencing its agricultural economy and security dynamics. Its climate, characterized by a long dry season and a short rainy season, impacts water resource management and exacerbates the risk of droughts and desertification. Senegal's population, approaching 18 million, comprises a rich tapestry of ethnic groups, primarily Wolof, Fula, and Serer, fostering a vibrant cultural landscape but also posing potential challenges to social cohesion. The legacy of French colonialism, including its language, legal systems, and administrative structures, continues to shape its political and economic landscape. Despite facing periods of instability, Senegal has maintained a relatively stable democracy, a rare feat in the region, positioning it as a key player in West African politics and a strategic partner for international actors.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape (2025):

• Opportunities: Consolidation of democracy following the 2024 election; potential for accelerated economic growth; leveraging natural resources (oil and gas); and expanding regional leadership role.

• Challenges: Rising public debt and constrained fiscal space; high youth unemployment and social unrest; managing the energy transition and ensuring equitable access to affordable energy; addressing the ongoing conflict in Casamance; navigating regional instability in the Sahel and maintaining regional partnerships; balancing relations with great powers like the United States and China while advancing its own interests on the African continent and in multilateral forums.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies:

• French Colonial Influence: French colonial rule (1850s-1960) indelibly shaped Senegal's political, economic, and social structures. This influence is evident in the continued use of French as the official language, the prevalence of French legal and administrative systems, and the close ties between the two countries. (Will Senegal's new president shake up external relations? | ISS Africa). This historical relationship distinguishes Senegal from Anglophone West African countries and shapes its interactions with international organizations and other francophone nations.

• CFA Franc Debate: The CFA franc, a currency pegged to the euro and managed by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), has been a source of ongoing debate within Senegal. Critics argue that the CFA franc limits Senegal's monetary sovereignty and ties its economic fortunes to those of France, a legacy of colonial monetary policy. (Will Senegal's new president shake up external relations? | ISS Africa). This debate is unique to Francophone West African countries and reflects the complexities of post-colonial economic relations.

• Neo-colonial Ties: Senegal's historically close relationship with France continues to influence its foreign policy, even as the country seeks to diversify its partnerships. (Senegal: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report | Freedom House). This dynamic highlights the challenges of balancing post-colonial ties with the need to forge new alliances in a changing geopolitical landscape.

II. Political Developments:

• 2024 Presidential Election: The 2024 presidential election, won by Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a relatively unknown figure prior to the election, was a critical moment for Senegalese democracy. (Senegal: From Constitutional Crisis to Democratic Restoration | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) This election solidified Senegal's reputation as a stable electoral democracy in a region marked by political instability.

• Pre-Election Tensions: The election was preceded by a period of heightened political tension surrounding incumbent President Macky Sall's attempt to potentially seek a third term in office. (Democracy in West Africa: Why Senegal's election crisis matters | Chatham House) This tension highlighted the ongoing struggle between established political elites and a rising opposition demanding greater adherence to democratic principles and term limits.

• Ousmane Sonko's Influence: The legal controversies and political maneuvering surrounding opposition figure Ousmane Sonko, barred from contesting the 2024 election, significantly shaped the political landscape. His populist rhetoric and youth following mobilized widespread protests and challenged the established political order. (Senegal: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report | Freedom House)

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes:

• Constitutional Council's Role: The Constitutional Council, Senegal's highest court responsible for reviewing the constitutionality of laws and electoral disputes, played a key role in upholding democratic principles during the pre-election crisis. (Democracy in West Africa: Why Senegal's election crisis matters | Chatham House). Its decision to reject Sall's attempt to postpone the election strengthened its independence and reinforced the rule of law.

• Electoral Commission Concerns: Despite the overall peaceful and transparent nature of the election, concerns persist regarding the impartiality of the National Autonomous Electoral Commission (CENA) and the potential for political interference in the electoral process. (BTI 2024 Country Report, p.8) CENA members are appointed by the president, raising questions about its independence.

• Generational Shift in Leadership: The election of Faye and the appointment of Sonko as prime minister mark a generational shift in Senegalese politics. This shift represents a break from the older generation of political leaders, raising both hopes and uncertainties about the future direction of the country. (Senegal: From Constitutional Crisis to Democratic Restoration | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

IV. Socio-Economic Factors:

• Youth Unemployment Crisis: High youth unemployment remains a significant challenge, especially given that the median age in Senegal is approximately 19. (Foresight Africa, 2025-2030, p.16) This unemployment fuels social unrest, drives irregular migration to Europe, and hinders long-term economic development.

• Inequality and Poverty: Economic inequality is particularly acute in rural areas, where the majority of the population resides and where poverty rates are significantly higher than in urban areas. (Senegal: Geopolitical Assessment, p. 23) These rural communities are also more vulnerable to the effects of climate change, exacerbating existing inequalities.

• Informal Sector Dominance: The vast informal sector, accounting for a significant portion of economic activity, poses challenges to tax revenue mobilization and the provision of social safety nets. This hinders the government's ability to invest in public services and social programs, impeding progress towards achieving the SDGs. (BTI 2024 Country Report, p.15)

• Service Sector Growth: Senegal's economy is undergoing a transformation, with the services sector, including tourism, transport, and logistics, emerging as a key driver of growth. This sector has the potential to create jobs and boost economic diversification, but challenges remain in ensuring that these jobs are formal and well-paying. (Foresight Africa, 2025-2030)

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics:

• Casamance Conflict: The long-standing separatist conflict in Casamance, a region separated from the rest of Senegal by The Gambia, continues to be a source of instability. (Can Senegal get the Casamance peace process over the finish line? | ISS Africa) The conflict is rooted in historical grievances and demands for greater autonomy, and while recent peace agreements have been signed, the risk of renewed violence persists.

• Sahel Instability: The threat of terrorism and violent extremism emanating from the Sahel region spills over into Senegal. The country participates in regional security initiatives such as the G5 Sahel, although it is not a full member. (Senegal as a strategic player in the Sahel | GIS Reports). This regional insecurity creates instability in border regions, disrupts trade, and increases demands on Senegal's security forces.

• Post-Electoral Protests: Following the 2023 presidential election and Sonko's imprisonment, protests and clashes between demonstrators and security forces resulted in violence and the suppression of civil liberties, highlighting the fragility of democratic norms and the potential for political instability. (SENEGAL 2023 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT) The government's heavy-handed response to these protests further exacerbated tensions and raised concerns about human rights violations.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment:

• Balancing Act with Global Powers: Senegal pursues a nuanced foreign policy approach, seeking to balance its relationships with traditional Western partners like France and the United States with those of emerging powers such as China and Russia. (Will Senegal's new president shake up external relations? | ISS Africa) This balancing act is characteristic of many African countries and reflects the shifting dynamics of the global geopolitical landscape.

• African Integration Focus: The new administration's foreign policy is expected to prioritize African integration and economic development, emphasizing cooperation within the African Union and regional economic communities. This represents a potential shift from the previous administration's approach, which was more closely aligned with traditional Western partners. (Senegal's new political landscape offers a new start for the West | Atlantic Council)

• Desire for Equitable Partnership: There is a growing desire within Senegal for a more equitable partnership with the United States and other Western powers. (Senegal's new political landscape offers a new start for the West | Atlantic Council). This reflects a growing sense of agency and the demand for greater respect and partnership in international relations.

VII. Unique to Country Topics:

• CFA Franc Conundrum: The ongoing debate surrounding the CFA franc and the desire for greater monetary sovereignty is unique to francophone West Africa and remains a key issue in Senegalese politics. The CFA franc's peg to the euro and management by the BCEAO restrict Senegal's monetary policy independence and create a perceived dependency on France. This debate reflects the complexities of post-colonial economic relations and the search for greater monetary autonomy. (Senegal: From Constitutional Crisis to Democratic Restoration | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

• Oil and Gas Management: The recent discovery and exploitation of oil and gas resources present both opportunities and challenges for Senegal. These resources have the potential to generate significant revenue and boost economic growth. However, there are also risks associated with resource management, including the potential for corruption, environmental damage, and exacerbating inequalities if not properly managed. (Senegal as a strategic player in the Sahel | GIS Reports)

• Regional Mediator Role: Senegal is playing an increasingly important role in regional mediation efforts, particularly in West Africa. Its involvement in resolving the political crises in the Gambia and Guinea-Bissau highlights its commitment to regional stability and its growing diplomatic influence. This role distinguishes Senegal as a key player in regional politics and a valuable partner for international actors seeking to promote peace and security in West Africa. (Senegal as a strategic player in the Sahel | GIS Reports)

Sources Cited

• "BTI 2024 Country Report - Senegal." Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

• "Can Senegal get the Casamance peace process over the finish line?" ISS Today, July 2024.

• "Democracy in West Africa: Why Senegal's election crisis matters." Chatham House, March 2024.

• "Foresight Africa: Top priorities for the continent in 2024." Brookings Institution, 2024.

• "Senegal: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report." Freedom House, 2024.

• "Senegal: From Constitutional Crisis to Democratic Restoration." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2024.

• "Senegal's new political landscape offers a new start for the West." Atlantic Council, April 2024.

• "Senegal as a strategic player in the Sahel.” GIS Reports, 2024.

• "SENEGAL 2023 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT." U.S. Department of State, 2024.

• "Will Senegal's new president shake up external relations?" ISS Today, April 2024.