Republic of Botswana: Geopolitical Assessment 2025

Introduction and Overview

Botswana, a landlocked country in Southern Africa, presents a unique case study in post-colonial development. Its semi-arid climate and diverse terrain, ranging from the Kalahari Desert to the Okavango Delta, shape its economic activities and vulnerability to climate change. With a population of 2.63 million (World Bank, 2024 Investment Climate Statements, Page 1), primarily composed of the Tswana ethnic group, alongside smaller communities like the Basarwa and the San, Botswana faces challenges related to social inclusion and equitable resource distribution. Historically, the discovery of diamonds propelled Botswana's economy, transforming it from one of the poorest nations at independence to an upper-middle-income country. This diamond wealth, however, has also led to economic disparities and a dependence on a single commodity. Botswana's strategic importance lies in its stable political history, robust infrastructure, and its role as a regional gateway for Southern Africa.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape:

Botswana faces a confluence of interconnected risks and opportunities. Key elements shaping its geopolitical landscape include:

• Economic Diversification: Moving away from diamond dependence and fostering growth in sectors like tourism, agriculture, and manufacturing is crucial for long-term economic resilience. (IMF, 2024 Article IV Consultation Staff Report, Page 3)

• Youth Unemployment: Addressing high youth unemployment and creating decent job opportunities are key to fostering social stability and inclusive growth. (Into Africa "Botswana Beyond Diamonds", Page 15).

• Climate Change Vulnerability: Botswana's semi-arid climate makes it highly susceptible to droughts and other climate change impacts, threatening livelihoods and exacerbating existing inequalities. (Climate Change Knowledge Portal - Botswana)

• Public Service Delivery Effectiveness: Enhancing efficiency and accountability in the provision of public services, particularly in health and education, is vital for improving human development outcomes and strengthening trust in government. (Into Africa "Botswana Beyond Diamonds", Page 31).

• Balancing Competing Global Powers: Navigating relationships with external powers like the US and China, while promoting national interests, presents diplomatic and strategic challenges. (Priorities for the New U.S. Administration and Congress on Strengthening Economic Relations with Africa, Page 1)

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies:

• British Protectorate (1885-1966): Botswana, formerly Bechuanaland, was a British protectorate for over 80 years. This period profoundly shaped the country's political and economic structures. The British introduced a Westminster-style parliamentary system, which persists today, as well as a legal framework rooted in common law. (Into Africa "Botswana Beyond Diamonds", Page 28)

• Impact on Ethnic Relations: Colonial policies often exacerbated existing social divisions, particularly impacting minority groups like the Basarwa and the San. These communities faced displacement and marginalization, impacting their access to resources and political representation. These historical injustices continue to resonate in contemporary Botswana, influencing debates surrounding land rights, cultural recognition, and equitable resource distribution. (Botswana 2023 Human Rights Report, Page 18).

II. Political Developments:

• Dominance of the BDP: The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has held power since independence in 1966. This long-ruling party has overseen significant economic development and political stability, but its dominance is increasingly challenged by calls for greater political inclusion and economic diversification. (Freedom in the World 2024, Botswana, Page 1)

• Calls for Constitutional Review: Recent constitutional reviews reflect the dynamic political landscape, with debates surrounding tribal recognition, minority rights, and the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches of government. (Botswana 2024 CCA Update 2, Page 4)

• 2024 Elections and Aftermath: The 2024 elections proved a pivotal moment in Botswana’s political history, marking the end of the BDP's uninterrupted rule since independence. The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), under Duma Boko, secured a shock victory, promising sweeping changes. (Daily Maverick, “Masisi’s shock defeat in Botswana heralds big changes, difficult turnaround,” Nov 3, 2024). The UDC’s win was attributed to public dissatisfaction with the BDP’s handling of the economy, unemployment, and perceptions of corruption. (Daily Maverick, “Masisi’s shock defeat…,” Nov 3, 2024). Boko's platform prioritized economic diversification, job creation, and addressing corruption. The transition has been largely peaceful, though there are concerns about the BDP's internal divisions and its ability to adapt to its new role as the opposition. (Daily Maverick, Nov 3, 2024). Early indications suggest Boko is prioritizing fiscal discipline and seeking to rebuild strained relationships with some regional partners. (Daily Maverick, Nov 3, 2024).

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes:

• Electoral System: Botswana has a multi-party democratic system with regular elections. The President is indirectly elected by the National Assembly for a five-year term. (Freedom in the World 2024, Botswana, Page 2).

• Independence of the Electoral Commission: While generally considered independent, the electoral commission's connection to the presidency through budgetary and staffing processes raises concerns about its impartiality. (Freedom in the World 2024, Botswana, Page 3).

• Challenges to Fair Elections: Despite efforts to ensure free and fair elections, challenges persist. These include access to political funding, which can favor larger parties, and ongoing debates about the efficacy of voter registration processes. (Freedom in the World 2024, Botswana, Page 3)

• Anti-Corruption Measures: Botswana has a comprehensive legal framework for combating corruption, although concerns about implementation persist. (2024 Investment Climate Statements: Botswana, Page 30). Recent cases of alleged corruption in government tenders have raised public concerns and highlighted the need for stronger enforcement mechanisms. (Botswana 2023 Human Rights Report, p. 13).

• Press Freedom and Access to Information: While freedom of expression is constitutionally guaranteed, there are concerns about government restrictions on the media and a lack of access to information. (Botswana 2023 Human Rights Report, Pages 7 and following). The absence of a Freedom of Information Act hinders investigative journalism and public scrutiny of government actions. (Into Africa "Botswana Beyond Diamonds", p. 19).

IV. Socio-Economic Factors:

• Economic Dependence on Diamonds: The diamond industry has historically dominated Botswana's economy, contributing a significant portion of its GDP and government revenue. (Foresight Africa 2024, p. 28). This reliance makes Botswana vulnerable to fluctuations in global diamond prices. While diamond exports remain substantial, economic diversification is seen as crucial to mitigate this risk and build a more resilient economy. Recent efforts have focused on leveraging Botswana's expertise in the diamond industry to develop downstream activities and add greater value to its diamond resources. (IMF, 2024 Article IV Consultation Staff Report, Annex VII, p. 54).

• New Diamond Agreement with De Beers: The new diamond agreement between Botswana and De Beers, signed in 2024, outlines a new framework for their partnership. This agreement addresses key aspects such as the allocation of rough diamond sales, investment in diamond exploration, and economic diversification initiatives. (IMF, 2024 Article IV Consultation Staff Report, Annex VII, p. 54). The agreement signifies Botswana's ongoing commitment to maximizing the benefits from its diamond resources.

• Unemployment: High unemployment, particularly among youth, poses a significant challenge. This issue is driven by a combination of factors including the slow pace of economic diversification, skills mismatches, and limited access to quality education. (World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025, Page XIV).

• Inequality: Botswana faces growing income inequality, exacerbated by the concentration of wealth in the diamond industry and uneven access to education and healthcare. The government is under pressure to implement policies to address this issue, with some proposing a levy to fund these measures (IMF Botswana Article IV Consultation, 2024, Page 54, 57).

• Climate Change Impacts:

  • Droughts: Recurrent droughts severely impact agricultural production, threatening food security and livelihoods, particularly in rural communities. (Climate Change Knowledge Portal - Botswana)

  • Water scarcity: The World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal highlights that climate projections for Botswana anticipate intensified droughts, decreased rainfall, and increased temperatures. This has serious implications for water resource management, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem health, threatening access to safe drinking water and sanitation for a growing portion of the population. (World Bank, Climate Change Knowledge Portal).

• Current Social Protection Programs: Botswana has established social safety nets to address poverty and vulnerability. These include programs targeting specific groups, such as orphans and vulnerable children, as well as broader initiatives aimed at improving livelihoods. (World Bank, 2024 World Development Indicators).

• Need for Expansion and Reform: Experts have highlighted the need for more comprehensive social safety nets to cope with increasing inequality and the impacts of climate change. (Foresight Africa 2024, p. 100). The government is exploring various options to expand and improve its social protection system. (World Bank, Botswana Overview).

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics:

• Cross-border Trafficking: Botswana's porous borders make it vulnerable to cross-border trafficking, particularly of human beings. This issue is linked to broader regional instability and organized crime. (Botswana 2023 Human Rights Report, Page 21)

• Regional Instability: While Botswana enjoys internal stability, political instability in neighboring countries, particularly Zimbabwe and South Africa, remains a concern. The possibility of increased refugee flows, political violence spilling over borders, and disruptions to regional trade are potential security risks for Botswana. (Foresight Africa 2024, p. 191).

VI. Foreign Policy Environment:

• US-China Competition: As the US and China compete for influence in Africa, Botswana seeks to balance its relationships with both powers. The country prioritizes attracting foreign direct investment, promoting technological advancement, and securing development assistance from both nations. (Priorities for the New U.S. Administration and Congress on Strengthening Economic Relations with Africa, Page 1; 2024 Investment Climate Statements: Botswana, Page 1).

• Regional Engagement: Botswana actively participates in regional organizations like the Southern African Development Community (SADC), playing a key role in promoting regional economic integration and addressing shared security concerns (IMF, 2024 Article IV Consultation Staff Report, Page 9).

Sources Cited

• "2024 Article IV Consultation—Press Release." International Monetary Fund, September 2024.

• "2024 Article IV Consultation Staff Report." International Monetary Fund, July 2024.

• "2024 Investment Climate Statements: Botswana." U.S. Department of State, 2024.

• "Botswana 2023 Human Rights Report." U.S. Department of State - Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2023.

• "Botswana 2024 CCA Update 2." UN Botswana, 2024.

• "Botswana: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2020-2028." International Monetary Fund, 2024.

• "Climate Change Knowledge Portal - Botswana." World Bank Group, 2024.

• "Freedom in the World 2024: Botswana." Freedom House, 2024.

• "Global Cybersecurity Index 2024." International Telecommunication Union, 2024.

• "Human Development Report 2023/2024." United Nations Development Programme, 2024.

• "Into Africa: Botswana Beyond Diamonds." Center for Strategic and International Studies, Transcript, October 4, 2024.

• "Priorities for the New U.S. Administration and Congress on Strengthening Economic Relations with Africa." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024.

• "The Global Risks Report 2025." World Economic Forum, January 2025.

• "Top Risks 2025." Eurasia Group, 2024.

• "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025." United Nations, 2024.