Geopolitical Assessment for Kingdom of Morocco: 2025

Introduction

Morocco, a North African nation with both Atlantic and Mediterranean coastlines, occupies a unique geographical position, bridging Europe and Africa. Its diverse landscapes, encompassing the Atlas Mountains, fertile coastal plains, and the vast Sahara Desert, influence its varied climate, agricultural production, and water resources. This geographical diversity, coupled with its strategic location, has shaped Morocco's history, culture, and political development. The country's population is primarily Arab-Berber, a reflection of centuries of migration and cultural exchange. Smaller Amazigh communities, descendants of the indigenous Berber population, maintain distinct languages and cultural traditions, often facing marginalization and advocating for greater recognition. This complex interplay of geography, demographics, and cultural heritage forms the backdrop for Morocco's contemporary political landscape. Key communities, shaped by their geographical locations and socio-economic conditions, include the urban populations concentrated in economic hubs like Casablanca and Marrakech, rural agricultural communities vulnerable to climate change impacts, and the Sahrawi population inhabiting the disputed Western Sahara territory, a source of ongoing conflict and regional tension.

Morocco's history and identity have been profoundly shaped by French and Spanish colonial legacies. These colonial experiences continue to influence its relations with Europe and its approach to the Western Sahara issue, affecting regional dynamics with neighboring countries like Algeria. The country's economy is diversified, encompassing agriculture, tourism, phosphate mining, and manufacturing, but faces challenges from persistent inequalities and uneven regional development. Morocco's strategic importance stems not only from its geographical position, bridging Europe and Africa, but also from its relative political stability and its role in regional security, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflicts and instability in the Sahel region. The country also possesses significant reserves of renewable energy potential and critical minerals, positioning it as a key player in the global energy transition. The convergence of these diverse factors creates a complex geopolitical landscape that demands careful navigation to ensure sustainable development and human security.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• Pre-Colonial Period (before 1912): Marked by the rise and fall of various empires and dynasties, including Berber kingdoms, Arab conquests, and interactions with other Mediterranean civilizations. This history contributed to a diverse cultural heritage, influencing language, religion, and social structures.

• French and Spanish Protectorates (1912-1956): Establishment of French and Spanish protectorates imposed European administrative systems, legal frameworks, and cultural norms. This period also saw the suppression of indigenous languages and cultures and the exploitation of natural resources (BTI 2024). The colonial legacy continues to influence Morocco's relations with Europe, shaping its political and economic ties (Messari).

• Independence and Nation-Building (1956-1999): Following independence, Morocco faced the challenge of creating a unified national identity and consolidating its sovereignty, while also addressing socio-economic disparities and navigating regional tensions. The "Years of Lead" under Hassan II was characterized by state repression against opposition forces and limited political freedoms, which left a lasting impact on the country's political culture (BTI 2024; Prada Bianchi and Magid). The unresolved Western Sahara issue emerged as a major source of conflict with Algeria, further complicating regional dynamics.

• Reform and Modernization Era (1999-present): Under Mohammed VI, a process of gradual political and social reforms has been underway, including decentralization efforts, constitutional amendments, and attempts to address human rights concerns (GIS Reports). However, challenges persist, including uneven economic development, regional disparities, concerns about the increasing influence of the security apparatus, and debate about the extent of democratic reforms (El Hamamouchi). The king’s extended absences from the country and debate about the existence and influence of a “secret structure” operating outside formal channels of power have raised questions about governance and accountability.

II. Political Developments

• Constitutional Monarchy: The current political system is a constitutional monarchy, with the king as head of state holding significant executive and legislative powers, and the prime minister as head of government responsible for day-to-day administration (GIS Reports). The balance of power between the monarchy and other political institutions, however, remains a key point of contention, particularly for those advocating for greater democratic reforms.

• King's Role and Influence: Mohammed VI, who ascended to the throne in 1999, has played a significant role in shaping the country’s political trajectory. He has initiated reforms and sought to project an image of a modernizing monarch, but his extended absences from the country and limited engagement with domestic political issues have led to questions about his leadership style and the direction of the country (El Hamamouchi).

• Debate About "Secret Structure": The debate about the existence and influence of an unelected “secret structure” or “deep state” composed of security officials, business elites, and other influential figures, continues to raise concerns about transparency, accountability, and the concentration of power (El Hamamouchi, Anouzla). This has also fueled speculation about potential succession scenarios and the future of the monarchy.

• Political Space Dynamics: While there has been some opening of political space since 1999, restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly persist. The government has at times cracked down on protests and dissent, raising concerns about human rights and the state of democracy (Prada Bianchi and Magid; BTI 2024).

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Regular Elections: Morocco holds regular elections at both the national and local levels, providing a framework for political participation and competition (BTI 2024).

• Electoral System and Fairness: The electoral system is designed to ensure a degree of representation for different political parties, but concerns about its fairness and transparency persist, with allegations of voter manipulation and irregularities in campaign financing (BTI 2024). This has fueled skepticism about the ability of elections to produce truly representative outcomes or to hold the government accountable.

• Weakening of Opposition: The political landscape is dominated by pro-monarchy parties, and the opposition remains fragmented and weak (BTI 2024). This has limited the effectiveness of electoral processes in driving democratic change or in holding the government accountable. The dominance of pro-monarchy parties also raises concerns about political capture and the influence of unelected actors on policymaking.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• Economic Diversification and Growth: Morocco has made efforts to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment, particularly in sectors like tourism, automotive, and renewable energy (GIS Reports, BTI 2024). This has contributed to economic growth and created job opportunities, but challenges remain, including high levels of inequality and regional disparities.

• High Unemployment: High unemployment rates, especially among youth and in urban areas, remain a significant socio-economic challenge, contributing to social unrest and posing a risk to political stability (BTI 2024). The lack of job opportunities for educated youth in particular is a source of frustration and could contribute to radicalization.

• Inequality and Social Exclusion: Significant income inequality and regional disparities persist, with some communities, particularly those in rural areas and with predominantly Amazigh populations, facing greater socio-economic difficulties (BTI 2024; MPI 2024). These disparities fuel social unrest and create a fertile ground for political discontent.

• Poverty and Vulnerability: While poverty rates have declined in recent years, a significant portion of the population remains vulnerable to poverty and economic shocks. This vulnerability is particularly acute in rural areas and among marginalized communities (MPI 2024). The impact of climate change, exacerbating water scarcity and impacting agricultural production, is increasing this vulnerability.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Western Sahara Conflict: The ongoing Western Sahara conflict remains a major source of tension in the region, driving militarization and diverting resources (Prada Bianchi and Magid). The collapse of the ceasefire agreement in 2020 has led to renewed fighting between Morocco and the Polisario Front, further complicating prospects for a peaceful resolution. International recognition of Morocco's claim to Western Sahara by certain countries, including the United States, has heightened tensions with Algeria and other supporters of the Polisario Front.

• Regional Security Cooperation and Competition: Morocco plays an active role in regional security cooperation, particularly in counterterrorism efforts. However, the Western Sahara conflict and the tense relationship with Algeria have limited cooperation on other important security issues, including border security and migration management.

• Domestic Security Challenges: Morocco faces domestic security challenges, including drug trafficking, organized crime, and social unrest related to socio-economic grievances. While the government has generally maintained control, these challenges pose a risk to political stability and could be exacerbated by regional instability or spillover effects from neighboring countries.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Alignment with the US and Israel: Morocco has aligned itself strongly with the United States and Israel, particularly on security issues. This alignment has brought benefits in terms of military aid and economic cooperation, but it has also complicated relations with some regional actors (Messari).

• Strained Relations with Algeria: Relations with Algeria have significantly deteriorated due to the Western Sahara issue, jeopardizing regional cooperation on issues such as counterterrorism and migration management.

• Engagement with Africa: Morocco has sought to strengthen its partnerships and expand its economic and political influence across Africa, viewing the continent as a strategic priority and a gateway to new markets. This engagement has been driven by trade, investment, and “religious diplomacy," aimed at consolidating Morocco's role as a regional leader (Messari; Zaanoun). This increasingly puts it in competition with Algeria for influence.

• Balancing Act with European Powers: Morocco continues to navigate a complex relationship with former colonial powers Spain and France. While seeking to maintain economic and political ties, Morocco has also demonstrated a willingness to push back against policies perceived as detrimental to its interests (Messari).

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• Water Stress and Resource Management: Water scarcity is a growing concern that could impact agricultural production, economic development, and social stability. Morocco is heavily dependent on rainfall for agriculture and faces increasing water stress due to climate change and population growth (BTI 2024). Initiatives to improve water management and invest in water infrastructure are critical.

• Drug Trafficking and Organized Crime: Morocco's geographic location and porous borders make it a transit point for drug trafficking, particularly cocaine from South America. This illicit activity fuels organized crime and poses a significant threat to security and stability, with potential spillover effects to neighboring countries and Europe (Prada Bianchi and Magid).

Sources Cited

• BTI 2024. BTI 2024 Country Report Morocco. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

• El Hamamouchi, Abdellatif. “Morocco: A Brewing Crisis of Governance." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 11, 2023.

• GIS Reports. "Morocco: Reforms instead of government repression." GIS Reports, 2024.

• Messari, Nizar. “Moroccan Foreign Policy Under Mohammed VI: Balancing Diversity and Respect.” IAI Istituto Affari Internazionali, October 28, 2020.

• MPI 2024. “GLOBAL MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY INDEX 2024: Poverty Amid Conflict.” UN DP, and OPHI Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative, 2024.

• Prada Bianchi, Andrea, and Pesha Magid. "Decolonization's Last Stand in the Sahara." Foreign Policy, June 24, 2023.

• Zaanoun, Abderrafie. “Morocco's Atlantic Initiative and Potential Challenges to Regional Leadership." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 10, 2024.

• Yabi, Gilles O. “Constructive U.S. Engagement with West Africa and the Sahel”. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 10, 2024.

• Munga, Jane and Sylvester Quansah. "Deepening U.S.-Africa Ties with Al and Cybersecurity Initiatives”. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July, 2024.