Federal Republic of Nigeria Geopolitical Assessment: 2025

Introduction and Overview

Nigeria, a strategically important nation in West Africa, presents a complex and dynamic geopolitical landscape. Its vast size (923,768 square kilometers), bordering Benin, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, encompasses diverse ecological zones, from the Sahel savanna to the coastal rainforests and the Niger Delta. This geographic diversity is mirrored in its population of over 228 million, comprising a mosaic of over 250 ethnic groups (the largest being Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo) and two major religions (Islam and Christianity, distributed roughly equally). This rich diversity, while a source of cultural richness, also presents challenges to national unity and social cohesion, often exacerbated by competition for resources and political power.

A former British colony, Nigeria gained independence in 1960 but has since experienced periods of political instability, including military coups, civil war (the Biafran War, 1967-1970), and a transition to democratic governance in 1999. This transition, while a significant milestone, has been marked by flawed elections, weak democratic institutions, and persistent corruption. Nigeria's economy, the largest in Africa, is heavily reliant on oil and gas exports, a legacy of its colonial past. This dependence creates vulnerabilities to global commodity price fluctuations, hinders economic diversification, and fuels corruption. Despite its economic potential, Nigeria faces pervasive poverty and inequality, particularly in the northern regions, where limited access to education and healthcare, coupled with the impact of conflict and climate change, exacerbates underdevelopment. These intersecting challenges create a complex operating environment for both domestic and international actors, demanding a nuanced and historically informed approach to understanding the country's geopolitical dynamics.

Key Threats and Strategic Considerations

• Escalating Insecurity: Boko Haram, ISIS-West Africa (ISIS-WA), farmer-herder clashes, and separatist agitations pose substantial threats. These conflicts are not merely security concerns; they are deeply rooted in historical grievances, socio-economic disparities, and competition for resources, posing a challenge to national cohesion and stability.

• Fragile Democratic Institutions: While democratic structures exist, their effectiveness is hampered by low public trust, electoral irregularities, and challenges to judicial independence. These factors create a volatile political environment prone to manipulation and exploitation by vested interests.

• Economic Vulnerability: Nigeria's economy remains heavily reliant on oil revenues, a legacy of its colonial past, making it vulnerable to global price fluctuations and hindering diversification efforts. This overreliance creates economic instability and exacerbates existing inequalities.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• British Colonialism's Lingering Shadow (1800s-1960): British colonial rule created artificial borders, exacerbated ethnic divisions through a “divide and rule” strategy, and established extractive economic institutions focused on resource exploitation rather than local development. This legacy continues to fuel present-day conflicts, and hinder efforts towards national unity and sustainable development (Chin and Bartos, pg. 115; Obadare, para. 4; Abiola, para. 8; Yeboua et al., pg. 7).

• The Scars of Military Rule (1966-1999): Frequent military interventions undermined democratic institutions, fostered a culture of impunity, and exacerbated corruption. This period normalized human rights abuses and reinforced the military's role in politics and the economy, creating a pattern that continues to challenge civilian control and democratic consolidation (Abiola, para. 8; Yeboua et al., pg. 10).

• Oil Dependence and the Resource Curse (1970s-present): The discovery of oil in commercial quantities transformed Nigeria's economy into a rentier state, exacerbating corruption, neglecting other economic sectors (especially agriculture), and creating a dependence on volatile global markets. This reliance on oil undermines sustainable development and exacerbates regional inequalities (Shah, pg. 3; Abiola, para. 9; Yeboua et al., pg. 7).

II. Political Developments

• Contested 2023 Elections: The 2023 general elections were marred by significant irregularities, including violence, voter suppression, and technological glitches, leading to low voter turnout and disputes about the legitimacy of the outcome. This further fueled political tensions and undermined public trust in the electoral process (BTI 2024, pg. 3; Freedom House, pg. 2; Abiola, para. 7).

• Rise of Citizen Activism: The #EndSARS protests in 2020 and subsequent #EndBadGovernance protests in 2024 demonstrate the growing dissatisfaction with governance and a desire for greater accountability and transparency. This rising citizen activism, though often met with repression, highlights a potential turning point in Nigeria's political landscape (Ogunade, para. 2; Abiola, para. 1).

• Leadership Transition and Uncertainty: The transition to a new government and the changes in central bank leadership have created uncertainty about the future direction of economic and political policies. This uncertainty poses risks to investor confidence and the implementation of long-term development plans (Monye, pg. 6).

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Uneven Electoral Reform Implementation: While the Electoral Act of 2022 introduced important reforms, including strengthening the financial independence of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and enabling early party primaries, implementation challenges and low public trust in the INEC continue to undermine the credibility and effectiveness of electoral processes (BTI 2024, pg. 8; Freedom House, pg. 4).

• Politicization of the Judiciary: The judiciary continues to face challenges in asserting its independence from the executive and legislative branches. Corruption, political interference, and a lack of adequate resources hinder its ability to uphold the rule of law and ensure due process (BTI 2024, pg. 11; Freedom House, pg. 13).

• Deepening Political Divides: Nigeria's political landscape is characterized by deepening divides along ethnic, religious, and regional lines, fueled by competition for resources, political patronage, and historical grievances. This polarization poses a significant threat to national unity and democratic consolidation (BTI 2024, pg. 13).

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• North-South Poverty Divide: Poverty and inequality are not evenly distributed across Nigeria. Northern Nigeria experiences significantly higher poverty rates than the South, reflecting historical marginalization, limited access to education and healthcare, and the impact of conflict and displacement (Yeboua, et. al, pg. 21; Shah, pg. 4; World Bank, pg. 2).

• Youth Unemployment Crisis: Nigeria's young and rapidly growing population faces an unemployment crisis, particularly among those lacking education or skills relevant to the demands of a changing labour market. This poses a significant threat to social stability and economic development (Yeboua, et. al, pg. 19; World Bank, pg. 2).

• Limited Economic Diversification: Despite efforts to diversify beyond oil, the Nigerian economy remains heavily dependent on oil revenues, exacerbating its vulnerability to global price shocks and hindering long-term sustainable development (Abiola, para. 2).

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Boko Haram and ISIS-WA insurgency (Northeast): The Boko Haram insurgency, which began in 2009, continues to destabilize the Northeast, with ISIS-WA gaining prominence in recent years. These groups pose a complex security challenge, with their activities not limited to terrorism but also including criminal activities such as kidnapping and resource theft (Yeboua, et. al, pg. 14; Freedom House, pg. 15).

• Farmer-Herder Violence and Resource Conflicts (Middle Belt): Clashes between predominantly Muslim herders and Christian farmers in the Middle Belt are rooted in competition for land and water resources, exacerbated by climate change and population growth. These conflicts have led to significant loss of life and displacement, threatening food security and social cohesion (Yeboua, et. al, pg. 14; Freedom House, pg. 15).

• Rise of Biafran Separatism (Southeast): The resurgence of separatist movements in the Southeast, such as the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), highlights historical grievances and demands for greater autonomy. These movements, though often met with state repression, pose a challenge to Nigeria's territorial integrity and political stability (BTI 2024, pg. 4; Freedom House, pg. 9).

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Navigating Great Power Competition (China & US): Nigeria is actively engaged in a delicate balancing act between China and the United States, seeking to leverage relationships with both powers to advance its economic and security interests. This non-aligned approach reflects Nigeria's pragmatic pursuit of development financing, infrastructure investment, and security cooperation while avoiding entanglement in great power rivalry. However, this strategy requires deft diplomatic maneuvering to avoid alienating either power and becoming overly reliant on one over the other (Chivvis et al., p. 4; Abiola, para. 7). China's growing economic influence in Africa, particularly through infrastructure projects and trade, poses a challenge to traditional Western partnerships, and Nigeria's response will be a key indicator of broader African trends in navigating great power competition.

• Regional Leadership and ECOWAS Fractures: Nigeria, as the largest economy and most populous nation in West Africa, has historically played a leadership role in regional organizations, particularly the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). However, recent political instability and security crises in the Sahel, including the coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, and the subsequent withdrawal of these countries from ECOWAS, have weakened the organization and challenged Nigeria's regional leadership. Restoring stability and promoting economic integration within ECOWAS is crucial for Nigeria's own security and development, but also requires navigating complex political dynamics and addressing the root causes of instability in the Sahel (Abiola, para. 3; BTI 2024, p. 33).

• Border Closure with Benin Republic (2019-2020) and its Aftermath: The closure of land borders with Benin Republic in 2019, ostensibly to combat smuggling and protect domestic industries, exemplified the tension between Nigeria's desire to control its borders and its regional trade ambitions and free movement commitments within ECOWAS. While the border has since reopened, the episode highlighted Nigeria's tendency to prioritize domestic concerns over regional cooperation, straining relations with its neighbors and raising questions about its commitment to regional integration (Abiola, para. 4). This policy exposed the significance of informal cross-border trade for many communities in the region and raised the issue of its impact on livelihoods and household incomes, often overlooked in formal economic data. The border closure also underscores the challenge Nigeria faces in balancing its security concerns, particularly with regard to smuggling and illicit cross-border activities, with the need to foster regional economic integration and cooperation.

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• Oil Sector Governance and Corruption: Nigeria's oil sector, a legacy of its colonial past, is plagued by corruption, mismanagement, and a lack of transparency. This has resulted in lost revenues, environmental degradation in the Niger Delta, and fuelled conflict and instability in the region (Abiola, para. 9; Yeboua, et. al, pg. 13). Reforming the oil sector and improving its governance are crucial for achieving sustainable development.

• Human Rights Abuses and Impunity: Human rights abuses by state security forces, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and arbitrary arrests, are ongoing concerns in Nigeria. The lack of accountability for these abuses perpetuates a culture of impunity and undermines the rule of law (HRW, pg. 1; Freedom House, pg. 2).

• Kidnapping for Ransom and Insecurity: Kidnapping for ransom has become a lucrative criminal enterprise in Nigeria, affecting communities across the country. The mass kidnapping of students has garnered international attention, highlighting the fragility of the country's security situation and the government's limited capacity to protect its citizens (Ogunade, para. 1).

Sources Cited

• Abiola, Saratu. "Foreign Policy: Nigeria Must Get out of Its Own Way." Africa Policy Research Institute, 2024.

• BTI 2024 Country Report - Nigeria. Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

• Chivvis, Christopher S., Zainab Usman, and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner. "Nigeria in the Emerging World Order." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2023.

• Freedom House. Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report - Nigeria. Freedom House, 2024.

• HRW. World Report 2025: Nigeria. Human Rights Watch, 2024.

• Monye, Ebele. "Why Nigeria's Controversial Naira Redesign Policy Hasn't Met Its Objectives." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024.

• Obadare, Ebenezer. "A False Dilemma." Council on Foreign Relations, 2024.

• Ogunade, Feyi. “Nigeria's schoolchildren again targeted in mass abductions.” ISS Africa, 2025.

• Shah, Rajiv J. "Bridging the Green Power Gap." Foreign Policy, 2024.

• Yeboua, Kouassi, Jakkie Cilliers, and Alize le Roux. "Nigeria: Geographic Futures." ISS African Futures, 2024.