Federal Republic of Nigeria Geopolitical Assessment: 2025

Introduction and Overview

Nigeria, a strategically important nation in West Africa, presents a complex and dynamic geopolitical landscape. Its vast size (923,768 square kilometers), bordering Benin, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, encompasses diverse ecological zones, from the Sahel savanna to the coastal rainforests and the Niger Delta. This geographic diversity is mirrored in its population of over 228 million, comprising a mosaic of over 250 ethnic groups (the largest being Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo) and two major religions (Islam and Christianity, distributed roughly equally). This rich diversity, while a source of cultural richness, also presents challenges to national unity and social cohesion, often exacerbated by competition for resources and political power.

A former British colony, Nigeria gained independence in 1960 but has since experienced periods of political instability, including military coups, civil war (the Biafran War, 1967-1970), and a transition to democratic governance in 1999. This transition, while a significant milestone, has been marked by flawed elections, weak democratic institutions, and persistent corruption. Nigeria's economy, the largest in Africa, is heavily reliant on oil and gas exports, a legacy of its colonial past. This dependence creates vulnerabilities to global commodity price fluctuations, hinders economic diversification, and fuels corruption. Despite its economic potential, Nigeria faces pervasive poverty and inequality, particularly in the northern regions, where limited access to education and healthcare, coupled with the impact of conflict and climate change, exacerbates underdevelopment. These intersecting challenges create a complex operating environment for both domestic and international actors, demanding a nuanced and historically informed approach to understanding the country's geopolitical dynamics.

Key Threats and Strategic Considerations

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

II. Political Developments

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

VII. Unique to Country Topics

Sources Cited