Central African Republic: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

The Central African Republic (CAR) is a landlocked nation in Central Africa, a geographical reality shaping its vulnerability to regional instability and dependence on often unreliable trade routes. Bordered by Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Republic of Congo, CAR's porous borders facilitate cross-border movement of people, goods, and unfortunately, arms and conflict. The terrain, largely comprised of vast, flat to rolling, savanna-covered plateaus, contributes to both agricultural potential and the difficulty of establishing and maintaining infrastructure, impacting internal connectivity and economic development. CAR's tropical climate, with alternating rainy and dry seasons, further complicates infrastructure development and agricultural productivity.

Demographically, CAR's estimated population of 5.9 million people (as of 2024) is highly diverse, comprised of over 80 ethnolinguistic groups. This diversity, while a source of cultural richness, also contributes to complex social and political dynamics, often fueling identity-based conflicts. The largest ethnic groups are the Baya, Banda, Mandjia, and Sara, none of which holds a decisive demographic majority. Key communities include the predominantly Muslim Mbororo (Peuhl) nomadic pastoralists, historically marginalized and increasingly targeted in recent conflicts.

Historically, CAR experienced French colonial rule, gaining independence in 1960. The colonial legacy, characterized by a focus on resource extraction and neglect of human capital development and infrastructure, continues to undermine the country's institutional capacity and economic progress. Post-independence, CAR has been plagued by chronic political instability, including numerous coups and periods of armed conflict, further weakening state capacity and eroding social cohesion. The country's rich natural resources, including diamonds, gold, timber, and uranium, though a potential source of wealth, have also made it a target for external influence, interference, and exploitation, exacerbating existing tensions and fueling conflict.

The geopolitical risk landscape is elevated and increasingly complex, demanding concerted and strategic action both domestically and internationally. Key threats and considerations include:

Key Threats:

• Fragile Political Stability: CAR's history of coups, weak governance, and electoral irregularities has created a deeply rooted culture of political instability. The July 2023 constitutional referendum, while expanding presidential term limits and solidifying executive power, was boycotted by the opposition and criticized for a lack of transparency, undermining its legitimacy and further increasing the risk of future political upheaval. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report, Freedom House 2024 Report, BTI 2024 Report)

• Internal Conflict and Violence: Armed groups, including the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), operate throughout the country, engaging in violence against civilians, hindering humanitarian efforts, and further contributing to displacement. Attacks against Mbororo communities and targeting of Muslims are particularly concerning, as highlighted in reports from Human Rights Watch and the UN. In the southeast, intensifying clashes between the Azande Ani Kpi Gbe (AAKG) and the predominantly Fulani Union for Peace in CAR (UPC) have led to escalating violence and displacement, increasing the risk of wider conflict. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report, Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect)

• External Influence and Interference: CAR has become a focal point of geopolitical competition, with Russia (through the Wagner Group), Rwanda, and other external actors seeking to expand their influence. This dynamic, reminiscent of Cold War-era proxy conflicts, not only exacerbates internal tensions and fuels conflict but also raises concerns about neocolonial exploitation of CAR’s resources and limited government capacity to effectively manage this external engagement. (Foresight Africa)

• Climate Change Vulnerability: CAR's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is a significant threat multiplier. Droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures exacerbate food insecurity, increase competition for scarce resources, and further contribute to internal displacement and cross-border migration, escalating tensions and fueling conflicts. (Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report)

• Illicit activities: Weak law enforcement, corruption and porous borders in the north of the country have contributed to the expansion of illicit trade in timber and other natural resources extracted from protected areas. This situation is further exacerbating the government's grip on the area, as well as conflict in the region. (Conflict and organised crime are razing CAR's rainforests)

Strategic Considerations:

• Promoting Peace and Reconciliation: Addressing the root causes of conflict and fostering dialogue and reconciliation between conflicting parties is crucial for building lasting peace and stability. Support for transitional justice mechanisms, community-based peacebuilding initiatives, and addressing grievances related to human rights abuses and resource conflicts are all essential. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report, Crisis Group)

• Fostering Inclusive and Sustainable Economic Growth: A resilient and diversified economy is essential for reducing social and political instability. Diversifying away from dependence on natural resource extraction, creating jobs, and improving access to education, health care, and other essential services are key priorities. Investing in infrastructure, promoting private sector development, and fostering technological innovation can help unlock CAR's economic potential. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report, World Bank in Central African Republic Overview)

• Mitigating Climate Change Impacts: CAR’s vulnerability to climate change necessitates investment in adaptation and mitigation measures. These measures should focus on enhancing food security, protecting water resources, promoting sustainable land management practices, reducing deforestation, and supporting vulnerable communities. (Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report)

• Managing External Influence and Interference: Developing a balanced foreign policy approach is critical for CAR to navigate its complex geopolitical environment. This means engaging with all external actors, including Russia, Rwanda, and traditional Western partners, while prioritizing national interests and building strategic alliances that support sustainable development and do not worsen existing conflicts or exacerbate tensions between communities. (Foresight Africa)

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• French Colonial Rule (1894-1960): French colonial rule in CAR, lasting over six decades, has profoundly shaped the country's present-day challenges. The colonial administration prioritized resource extraction (timber, diamonds, etc.), neglecting investments in education, healthcare, and other essential services, as well as broader human capital development, and instituted policies that exacerbated ethnic divisions, sowing the seeds of future conflicts. This legacy of weak state capacity, underdeveloped infrastructure, and social fragmentation continues to hinder development and political stability. (BTI 2024 Country Report, Central African Republic: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025))

• Post-Independence Instability (1960-Present): Since gaining independence in 1960, CAR has been plagued by chronic political instability, marked by a series of coups, attempted coups, and periods of armed conflict. This instability has further weakened state institutions, eroded social trust, and disrupted economic development, perpetuating a cycle of poverty and fragility. The failure of successive governments to address the root causes of conflict, including ethnic and religious tensions and socioeconomic inequalities, has created an environment conducive to recurring violence. (Central African Republic: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025), World Bank in Central African Republic Overview)

II. Political Developments

• Constitutional Referendum and Power Consolidation (2023): The July 2023 constitutional referendum, a pivotal moment in CAR's recent political history, approved a new constitution that extended presidential term limits and consolidated executive power. However, the referendum was boycotted by the opposition, which denounced it as a "masquerade" due to concerns about a lack of transparency, limited public participation, and potential for manipulation. This event underscores the deep political divisions within CAR and heightened tensions between the government and the opposition, increasing the risk of future political unrest and instability. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report, Freedom House 2024 Report, BTI 2024 Report)

• Wagner Group Influence and Human Rights Concerns: The presence and growing influence of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, in CAR, has further complicated the political landscape. The Wagner Group has been implicated in numerous human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and arbitrary detentions, as documented in reports from Human Rights Watch, the UN, and other human rights organizations. This raises serious concerns about the erosion of democratic governance, the rule of law, and respect for human rights. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report, Foresight Africa)

• Shifting Political Alliances: CAR's foreign policy under President Touadéra has shifted away from traditional Western allies towards closer ties with Russia, as exemplified by the reliance on the Wagner Group for security assistance. This realignment, reflective of broader geopolitical trends in the region, has led to a decline in engagement with France and the United States, potentially impacting CAR's access to development assistance and creating an opening for increased Russian influence. (Foresight Africa)

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Postponed Elections and Electoral Challenges: Local and regional elections, constitutionally mandated and initially slated for October 2024, have been postponed to 2025 due to funding shortfalls and security concerns, hindering the opportunity for democratic renewal at the local level. The main opposition coalition’s declared intention to boycott the elections without meaningful reforms further underscores the deep-seated distrust in the electoral process and raises concerns about the potential for escalating political tensions. (Freedom House 2024 Report, UN Security Council report)

• Judicial Sector Weaknesses and Impunity: CAR's judicial sector faces persistent weaknesses, including a lack of resources, corruption, limited capacity, and political interference, as highlighted in the US Department of State's Human Rights Report. These challenges contribute to impunity for human rights abuses and other crimes, undermining the rule of law and access to justice. The slow and inefficient judicial processes, as well as limited judicial presence beyond the capital, Bangui, further exacerbate these issues. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report)

• Special Criminal Court (SCC) and Transitional Justice: The SCC, established in 2015 with international support, plays a crucial role in addressing past human rights abuses and atrocities. Recent arrests and indictments by the SCC demonstrate its growing capacity to hold perpetrators accountable; however, securing sufficient funding and ensuring its long-term sustainability remain key challenges. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report)

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• Persistent Poverty and Inequality: CAR ranks among the poorest countries in the world, with pervasive multidimensional poverty, high levels of inequality, and limited economic opportunities. The majority of the population lives below the poverty line, with limited access to basic services such as education, health care, and sanitation. (World Bank in Central African Republic Overview, BTI 2024 Country Report, Multidimensional Poverty Index 2024)

• Economic Dependence on Natural Resources: CAR's economy is heavily dependent on the extraction and export of natural resources, including diamonds, gold, and timber. This dependence makes the country vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations and global economic shocks, hindering efforts to diversify the economy and achieve sustainable economic growth. Fluctuations in gold prices, and increased smuggling in conflict areas, have added to the economic volatility, with a decrease in overall GDP in 2024. (World Bank in Central African Republic Overview, Cahiers Economiques de la République Centrafricaine)

• Impact of Internal Conflict and Displacement on Livelihoods: Ongoing internal conflict and insecurity have significantly impacted livelihoods across the country, causing widespread displacement, disrupting agricultural production, and limiting access to markets. This has exacerbated food insecurity and contributed to a humanitarian crisis affecting a large portion of the population. (Central African Republic, Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, UN OCHA)

• Limited Access to Education and Healthcare: Access to quality education and healthcare remains limited, particularly in rural areas, undermining human capital development and exacerbating inequality. Ongoing conflict and insecurity have further disrupted access to these essential services, particularly impacting women and girls and other vulnerable groups. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report, World Bank in Central African Republic Overview)

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Pervasive Armed Conflict: CAR continues to be plagued by armed conflict, with various armed groups, including ex-Séléka and anti-Balaka factions, as well as newer groups like the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) and its splinter factions (CPC-F), vying for control of territory and resources. This has led to widespread violence against civilians, particularly in the northwest, east, and south of the country. (Central African Republic, Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, Foresight Africa)

• Foreign Fighters: The presence of foreign fighters, notably Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group and Rwandan troops, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict dynamics, raising concerns about human rights abuses, as documented in the US Department of State's Human Rights Report. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report, Foresight Africa)

• Civilian Casualties: Clashes between armed groups and government forces, often involving indiscriminate attacks on civilians and the use of prohibited weapons, continue to cause civilian casualties and displacement. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report)

• The Lord's Resistance Army, active in the southeast, presents a persistent threat to civilians, as noted in various reports. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report, World Bank in Central African Republic Overview, Freedom House 2024 Report)

• Regional Tensions: Tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Sudan and Chad, linked to resource conflicts and cross-border movement of armed groups and refugees, add to the instability and security challenges. (Central African Republic, Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, UN Security Council)

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Shifting Alliegances: CAR's foreign policy reflects a shift away from traditional Western allies, such as France, and towards closer ties with Russia, China, and Rwanda. This realignment is driven by a complex set of factors, including a perceived lack of support from Western partners, a desire for alternative security arrangements, and potential economic incentives. (Foresight Africa)

• Russia's Role: Russia's growing influence in CAR, primarily through the Wagner Group's military and security assistance, is raising concerns among Western governments and international organizations about potential negative impacts on human rights and democratic governance, as highlighted in several reports and articles. (Foresight Africa, Central African Republic: UN report calls for accountability for attacks by armed groups active in Haut Oubangui)

• Limited US Role: While the United States has expressed interest in strengthening its relationship with CAR, its engagement remains limited and focused primarily on counterterrorism efforts and providing an alternative to Russian influence. (Foresight Africa)

• Regional Influence: Regional dynamics play a significant role in CAR's foreign policy environment. The country is a member of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and has signed various security and cooperation agreements with neighboring countries. However, the effectiveness of these regional mechanisms in addressing cross-border challenges, such as the movement of armed groups and refugees, remains limited. (Central African Republic, Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, UN Security Council)

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• Sango Coin and Cryptocurrency Adoption: CAR's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender and the launch of the Sango Coin, a national cryptocurrency, reflects an ambitious, albeit controversial, approach to leveraging digital technologies for economic development. While the initiative aims to modernize the financial sector and increase access to financial services, it has also raised concerns about regulatory challenges, cybersecurity risks, and potential for money laundering. (Securing Digital Finance in Post-Conflict Central African Republic)

• Witchcraft Accusations: The belief in witchcraft remains pervasive in parts of CAR, particularly in rural communities, where accusations of witchcraft are frequently used to target vulnerable groups, especially women, children, and older people. These accusations can lead to violence, social ostracism, and even extrajudicial killings. This reflects a deep-seated cultural phenomenon intertwined with traditional justice systems and highlights the urgent need for strengthening the formal justice sector and promoting human rights. (Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report)

• LRA presence: The Lord’s Resistance Army continues to operate and remain a source of concern in the southeast of the country, displacing the population, and limiting access to the region. (Crisis in the Central African Republic | Global Conflict Tracker)

• UN arms embargo and Russia: The UN arms embargo against the country, aimed at reducing the flow of weapons to armed groups, has been lifted (July 2024), however, weapons provided to the government come from Russia, which could exacerbate existing political sensitivities. (World Report 2025: Central African Republic)

• Wagner presence and politics: Wagner troops are reported to be active in supporting the government in quelling rebel uprisings as well as in the exploitation of natural resources, specifically gold mines in the east of the country and timber industry in the west, adding another element of friction between conflicting local communities and potentially leading to political manipulation. (Central African Republic: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report)

Sources Cited

"Central African Republic." Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, 2025.

"Central African Republic 2023 Human Rights Report." United States Department of State • Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2024.

"Central African Republic: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report." Freedom House, 2024.

"Central African Republic 2024 Country Report." BTI 2024, Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

"Central African Republic: UN report calls for accountability for attacks by armed groups active in Haut Oubangui." OHCHR, 2025.

"Conflict and organised crime are razing CAR's rainforests." ISS Africa, 2023.

"Executive Summary." Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report, World Bank, 2024.

"Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for Africa." Africa Growth Initiative, Brookings Institution, 2024.

"Securing Digital Finance in Post-Conflict Central African Republic." by Tomslin Samme-Nlar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2023.