Republic of Tunisia: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Tunisia, in North Africa, is bordered by Algeria and Libya, with coastline on the Mediterranean Sea. Its diverse geography encompasses fertile coastal areas, the Atlas Mountains, and the Saharan Desert. This geographic diversity influences regional economic activities and settlement patterns, while its Mediterranean climate, characterized by hot, dry summers and mild, rainy winters, impacts agriculture and tourism. Its population of over 12 million is experiencing a demographic shift, with a rapidly aging population and a declining birth rate. This demographic transition presents both opportunities and challenges for the Tunisian economy and social welfare system. While predominantly Arab-Berber, Tunisia has distinct minority groups, including the Amazigh (Berbers – original inhabitants of North Africa), Black Tunisians, and a small Jewish community, contributing to a rich cultural tapestry but also potential social tensions.

Historically, Tunisia served as a crossroads of civilizations, witnessing Phoenician, Roman, Arab, and Ottoman rule. This diverse heritage has shaped the country's identity and its position as a bridge between North Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. Tunisia's strategic importance in the Mediterranean has made it a focus of international interest and intervention. The country's economy relies on phosphate mining, tourism, and agriculture, but faces persistent challenges related to unemployment, public debt, and political instability. These challenges have been compounded by regional conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic, and global economic downturns, contributing to a sense of fragility and uncertainty about the future.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape

Tunisia's geopolitical landscape is complex and dynamic. Key risks include:

• Political Instability: Democratic backsliding, social unrest, and power struggles threaten the country's political stability, jeopardizing its transition to democracy.

• Economic Fragility: High unemployment, public debt, and declining foreign investment pose significant challenges to the Tunisian economy, exacerbating social and regional inequalities.

• Security Concerns: Regional conflicts, terrorism, and cross-border migration flows raise security concerns, necessitating increased security measures and impacting trade and mobility.

• Strained International Relations: The shift in alliances from Western partners towards Russia and China creates both opportunities and risks, straining relations with traditional partners and impacting Tunisia's access to development assistance.

• The Phosphate Paradox: Tunisia's reliance on phosphate mining, while crucial for its economy, has resulted in environmental degradation and social unrest, raising questions about sustainable development.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies:

• French Colonialism (1881-1956): French rule had a lasting impact on Tunisia's economic, political, and social structures. The introduction of large-scale phosphate mining in the late 19th century transformed the country's southwest, creating an extractive economy and fostering social inequalities between the mining regions and the more prosperous coastal areas. (FP, p. 1) French colonial policies also undermined traditional forms of governance and social organization, contributing to post-colonial political instability.

• Post-Colonial Authoritarianism: The post-colonial period was marked by authoritarian rule under Presidents Bourguiba and Ben Ali. (BTI 2024, p. 5) Their regimes centralized power, suppressed dissent, and fostered crony capitalism, creating a climate of political repression and economic stagnation. This legacy of authoritarianism has shaped present-day political dynamics, hindering democratic consolidation and fueling social unrest.

• The Arab Spring (2010-2011): Triggered by Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation in Sidi Bouzid, the Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia toppled the Ben Ali regime and ushered in a period of democratic transition. The revolution was rooted in economic grievances, social injustice, and a lack of political freedoms. (FP, p.2) This period witnessed greater civic participation, the emergence of new political parties, and attempts to establish democratic institutions. The uprisings highlighted deep-seated social and economic inequalities, which continue to shape Tunisia's political landscape.

II. Political Developments:

• 2021 Power Grab: President Kais Saied's seizure of power in July 2021, justified by an economic crisis and political dysfunction, marks a turning point in Tunisia's post-Arab Spring trajectory. Saied dissolved parliament, revised the constitution, and centralized power, undermining democratic institutions and raising concerns about authoritarianism. (FP, p. 3; Journal of Democracy, p. 2) This move has been met with both support and opposition, reflecting deep social and political divisions.

• Crackdown on Dissent: Saied's regime has intensified its crackdown on critics and opponents, targeting journalists, civil society activists, and opposition politicians with arbitrary arrests, prosecutions, and travel restrictions. (Freedom House, p. 2) This has led to a climate of fear, shrinking civic space, and self-censorship, hindering public discourse and democratic debate.

• 2024 Presidential Election: The October 2024 presidential election, which saw Saied win a second term, was marred by low voter turnout (28.8%), restrictive criteria for candidates, and accusations of electoral manipulation. (Wilson Center, p. 1; Human Rights Watch, p. 1; Journal of Democracy, p. 10) The outcome raised questions about popular support for Saied and the legitimacy of the electoral process, further deepening political uncertainty and skepticism about democracy.

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes:

• Weakened Institutions: The 2024 election highlighted the fragility of Tunisia's democratic institutions, which have been systematically weakened under Saied's rule. The dissolution of the independent election commission, the removal of judges, the absence of a Constitutional Court, and the rewriting of the constitution have all contributed to a concentration of power in the presidency and eroded checks and balances. (FP, p. 4; Journal of Democracy, p. 2)

• Electoral Manipulation: The 2024 elections were marred by accusations of electoral manipulation, including restrictive eligibility criteria for candidates, arbitrary rejection of applications to observe the election, and limited access for international observers. (Wilson Center, p. 2; Journal of Democracy, p. 11) These irregularities have raised concerns about the integrity of the electoral process and cast doubt on the legitimacy of the results.

• Judicial Overreach: The lack of an independent judiciary and the use of military courts to prosecute civilians further contribute to concerns about due process and the erosion of the rule of law. (FP, p. 4; Human Rights Watch, p. 3) This undermines public trust in the justice system and fuels perceptions of injustice.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors:

• Economic Stagnation and Inequality: Tunisia's economy is facing persistent challenges related to slow growth, high unemployment (especially among youth), rising inflation, and a decline in foreign investment. (BTI 2024, p. 3; Carnegie, October 2024, p. 1) These economic hardships are exacerbating social divisions, fueling public discontent, and contributing to social unrest.

• Regional Disparities: Economic inequalities between the more prosperous coastal regions and the marginalized inland areas persist, fueling social tensions and contributing to internal migration and brain drain. (BTI 2024, p. 5; FP, p. 3) The Gafsa Valley, a key phosphate mining region, serves as a prime example of the “sacrifice zones" created by extractive industries, highlighting the environmental degradation and socioeconomic challenges faced by these communities.

• Cost-of-Living Crisis: The rising cost of living, driven by inflation, shortages of essential commodities, and the removal of subsidies, is a major concern for ordinary Tunisians. (FP, p. 2; Carnegie, October 2024, p. 3) These economic hardships are further compounded by the government's economic policies, including its reliance on domestic debt and its resistance to implement much-needed reforms.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics:

• Regional Instability: While not directly involved in armed conflict, Tunisia's security is impacted by the ongoing conflict in neighboring Libya, the rise of extremist groups in the Sahel region, and the flow of refugees and migrants across its borders. (FP, p. 4; Carnegie, January 2023, p. 3) These regional instabilities exacerbate Tunisia's internal security challenges and put a strain on its resources.

• Migration Crisis: The increasing flow of migrants through Tunisia toward Europe, coupled with the government's crackdown on migrant rights and its collaboration with European countries on border control, has raised serious human rights concerns and fuelled social tensions. (Freedom House, p. 2; Human Rights Watch, p. 5)

• Terrorism Threat: The presence of terrorist groups operating in neighboring countries, coupled with Tunisia's porous border with Libya and the challenging terrain in its southern regions, poses a persistent threat to the country's security. (FP, p. 4) This requires the government to balance security measures with the needs of local communities for development and opportunities.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment:

• Shifting Alliances: Tunisia's foreign policy under President Saied reflects a shift away from traditional Western partners towards countries like Russia and China, seeking to diversify diplomatic and financial relations. (Carnegie, January 2023, p. 3; Washington Institute, p. 2) This realignment reflects Saied's anti-Western rhetoric and his skepticism of international financial institutions, as well as his desire to secure alternative sources of support.

• Relations with Iran: Tunisia's warming relations with Iran are driven primarily by a shared anti-Western stance and by the opportunity to cooperate with a regional power challenging the status quo. (Washington Institute, p. 2) However, deep cultural differences between the two countries, as well as Tunisia's commitment to secularism, suggest limits to the partnership's potential.

• Growing Dependence on Algeria: Tunisia's increasing reliance on Algeria for financial and energy support reflects its changing geopolitical environment and its desire to build stronger ties with a regional power. (Washington Institute, p. 3) This dependence, however, could also limit Tunisia's policy independence and create new vulnerabilities.

VII. Unique to Country Topic: The Phosphate Paradox:

• Extractive Economy and Social Inequality: Tunisia's dependence on phosphate mining, a legacy of French colonial rule, has created a "resource curse,” where the Gafsa Valley, a key phosphate mining region, has become a sacrifice zone, suffering from environmental damage, social inequalities, and brain drain. (FP, p. 1) This highlights the social and environmental costs of extractive industries and the need for a more balanced and sustainable development approach.

• Environmental Degradation: Phosphate mining has resulted in significant environmental damage, including land degradation, water pollution, and air pollution, harming the health and livelihoods of local communities. (FP, p. 1) This underscores the urgent need to address the environmental costs of extractive industries and promote more sustainable mining practices.

• Social Unrest: The government's attempt to capitalize on rising global phosphate demand has fuelled social unrest in the Gafsa Valley, as local communities demand greater benefits from the mining sector and raise concerns about the lack of development and opportunities. (FP, p. 1) This conflict highlights the challenges of balancing economic development with social and environmental concerns.

Sources Cited

• BTI 2024. "Tunisia." Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

• FP. "The Dark Side of Tunisia's Phosphate Boom." Foreign Policy, 2024.

• Freedom House. "Tunisia: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report." Freedom House, 2024.

• Human Rights Watch. "World Report 2025: Tunisia." Human Rights Watch, 2025.

• Journal of Democracy. "Tunisia's Insecure Strongman." Journal of Democracy, 2024.

• Wilson Center. "Blueprint for Consolidation: Tunisia's 2024 Election, Authoritarian Shift, and Broader Implications." Wilson Center, 2024.

• Washington Institute. "Are Tunisia and Iran Really Growing Closer?" The Washington Institute, 2025.

• Carnegie. "Tunisian Foreign Policy Under Kais Saied." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2023.

• Carnegie. "Independence Usurped: Tunisia's Central Bank Under Kais Saied's Rule." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024.

• Carnegie. "Kais Saied's Grip on Tunisia Comes at a High Cost." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024.

• Carnegie. "The Buildup to a Crisis: Current Tensions and Future Scenarios for Tunisia." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024.