Geopolitical Assessment: Republic of the Sudan (2025)

Introduction

Sudan, situated in Northeast Africa, is a nation defined by a complex convergence of geography, ethnicity, and political history. Its diverse terrain encompasses arid deserts, vast savannas, and lush rainforests, while its climate, typically hot and dry, exhibits regional variations. These geographical factors have shaped settlement patterns, influenced economic activities, and contributed to disparities in development and access to resources. Sudan's population is a vibrant mosaic of Arab and African ethnic groups, fostering a rich cultural tapestry, with Arabic as the official language and English widely spoken. However, this diversity has also been a source of conflict, exploited by political elites to maintain power and control. Sudan's colonial past under Anglo-Egyptian rule (1899-1956) has left an indelible mark on its political system, characterized by authoritarianism, conflict, and a protracted struggle for democratic governance. Its strategic location on the Red Sea and its wealth of natural resources, including oil and minerals, have made it a focal point for great power competition and regional rivalries, impacting its stability and development trajectory. As of 2025, Sudan faces a critical juncture, grappling with internal conflicts, regional instability, a humanitarian crisis, and the complexities of navigating great power competition.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• Divide and Rule: British colonial policy, implemented from 1899 to 1956, deliberately exacerbated existing ethnic and religious cleavages, fostering a "north-south" divide and marginalizing non-Arab populations in peripheral regions like Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile. This strategy, aimed at maintaining control and suppressing any potential for unified resistance, has had profound and lasting consequences for Sudan's post-independence political landscape (Crisis Group, p. 2). The marginalization of specific ethnic and regional groups continues to fuel grievances, secessionist movements, and demands for greater autonomy. This colonial legacy is particularly salient in Sudan, as it distinguishes the country from many other African states with different colonial experiences and has contributed to the persistent instability and conflict that have plagued Sudan since independence.

• Imposition of Arab-Islamic Identity: The imposition of Arab and Islamic identities as the dominant national identity under British rule and subsequent regimes marginalized non-Arab populations and fueled resentment and resistance (Crisis Group, p. 2). This policy contributed to the formation of separatist movements and armed rebellions, particularly in regions with distinct ethnic and cultural identities.

• Legacy of Conflict: Sudan's history is marred by protracted civil wars and conflicts, both internal and external, stemming from pre-independence struggles against British rule, highlighting the deep-rooted nature of the current conflict and the enormous challenges of achieving lasting peace and stability (Crisis Group, p. 2). These historical conflicts have also contributed to a culture of violence and militarization, shaping the country's political and security landscape.

II. Political Developments

• 2019 Uprising: A Glimmer of Hope: The overthrow of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, after 30 years of autocratic rule, marked a potential turning point in Sudan's political history (Crisis Group, p. 1). The uprising, fueled by months of pro-democracy protests, was driven by a diverse coalition of civil society groups, demonstrating the Sudanese people's desire for change and the possibility of a transition towards democratic governance. This event is unique to Sudan, as it underscores the potential for popular mobilization and the possibility of breaking with the country's authoritarian past.

• 2021 Military Coup: A Setback for Democracy: The military coup in October 2021, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, derailed the transition towards civilian rule and reasserted the military's dominance over Sudan's political landscape (Crisis Group, p. 1). The coup leaders justified their actions by claiming to be "correcting the course" of the transition, reflecting the military's long-standing self-proclaimed role as the guarantor of national stability, a narrative often used to legitimize military interventions in Sudanese politics.

• 2023 Civil War: A Descent into Chaos: The ongoing civil war, which erupted in April 2023, is a direct consequence of the power struggle between the Sudanese army and the RSF, exposing deep-seated tensions within the military and the fragility of Sudan's political transition (Crisis Group, p. 1). The conflict has created a complex and fluid battlefield, with shifting alliances and control over territory, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and further undermining stability.

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Fragmented Political Landscape: Sudan's political system is characterized by a multitude of political parties and movements, many of which are fragmented and lack broad-based popular support, hindering consensus building and the formation of a stable, inclusive government.

• Stalled Transition and the Absence of Elections: The failure to implement the December 2022 framework agreement, intended to pave the way for civilian rule and elections, raises serious concerns about the military's commitment to a democratic transition, as well as the feasibility of holding free and fair elections in a context of ongoing conflict. This raises questions about the political legitimacy of the military government and the future of democracy in Sudan.

• Institutional Decay and Dysfunction: Sudan's institutions, weakened by decades of authoritarian rule and conflict, lack the capacity and resources to effectively address the country's complex challenges, creating a governance vacuum that has been filled by armed groups and criminal organizations. This institutional decay has further undermined stability and created a permissive environment for violence and impunity.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• Economic Crisis and Humanitarian Catastrophe: The ongoing civil war has decimated Sudan's economy, causing widespread poverty, hyperinflation, unemployment, and a scarcity of basic necessities such as food, water, and healthcare. This has fueled a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented scale, with millions of people displaced and in need of urgent assistance.

• Exacerbated Inequalities: Socioeconomic inequalities, already deep-rooted, have been further aggravated by the conflict and have disproportionately impacted vulnerable populations, including women, children, internally displaced people, and refugees. This has created a vicious cycle of poverty and vulnerability, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

• Impact of Sanctions and Aid Suspension: International sanctions imposed on Sudan and the suspension of aid have further constrained the country's economic recovery, limiting its ability to address the urgent needs of its people and rebuild essential infrastructure and services.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Proliferation of Armed Groups: The security landscape in Sudan is characterized by a multitude of armed groups, including militias, tribal factions, and criminal organizations, many of which operate with impunity in areas outside government control. This has fueled a cycle of violence and contributed to the breakdown of law and order.

• Regional Spillover Effects: The conflict in Sudan has destabilizing regional implications, particularly for neighboring countries such as Chad, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic. The flow of refugees, arms, and fighters across borders has exacerbated existing tensions and heightened the risk of regional spillover and a wider conflict.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Proxy War and Great Power Competition: Sudan has become a battleground for proxy conflicts, with regional and international actors pursuing their own strategic interests in the country. The involvement of external actors, including state and non-state actors, has fueled the conflict, complicated efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution, and exacerbated the humanitarian crisis. Specifically:

  • The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia have been identified as major suppliers of weapons and financial support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a powerful paramilitary force in Sudan. The UAE's interest in Sudan is driven by its desire to counter the influence of Qatar and Turkey in the Horn of Africa, while Russia aims to expand its military and political influence in the region (Atlantic Council, p. 1).

  • Egypt has provided support to the Sudanese army, driven by its concern about the stability of its southern border and its interest in maintaining its influence over the Nile River, a crucial source of water for Egypt.

  • The involvement of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, in Sudan raises further concerns about the country's security and stability, as the group has been linked to human rights abuses and has been accused of fueling conflict in other African countries.

  • The United States has taken a more hands-off approach to the conflict, focusing primarily on humanitarian assistance and urging a peaceful resolution. This policy reflects the U.S.'s broader reluctance to get involved in complex African conflicts and its prioritization of great power competition with China and Russia.

• Regional Instability: The ongoing conflict and the resulting humanitarian crisis have exacerbated regional instability in the Horn of Africa, threatening the security and stability of neighboring countries. The flow of refugees across borders has placed a strain on the resources of host countries and has increased the risk of cross-border conflict. The involvement of non-state actors and the proliferation of weapons have also contributed to regional insecurity.

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• Fragile Governance and the Erosion of State Authority: Decades of authoritarian rule, conflict, and economic mismanagement have weakened Sudan's governance structures, creating a vacuum of authority that has been filled by armed groups, militias, and criminal organizations. This erosion of state authority has further undermined stability and created a permissive environment for violence and impunity.

• Displacement and Humanitarian Crisis: The ongoing conflict has caused a large-scale humanitarian crisis, with millions of people displaced from their homes and in need of urgent assistance (UN, Resolution 57/2). The scale and severity of the crisis are unprecedented in recent Sudanese history, posing significant challenges for humanitarian organizations and the international community.

Sources Cited

• Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings. Foresight Africa. 2024.

• Atlantic Council. "Sudan is caught in a web of external interference." 2024.

• BTI. 2024 Country Report. Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Living Through Hell." 2024.

• Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Civil War in Sudan." 2025.

• Council on Foreign Relations. Civil War in Sudan. 2025.

• Council on Foreign Relations. A Third Year of War. 2025.

• Crisis Group. Two Years On, Sudan's War is Spreading. International Crisis Group, 2025.

• Foreign Policy. "Sudan is Not a Lost Cause." 2024.

• Human Development Report. 2023/2024 Report. 2024.

• United Nations. Report of the Human Rights Council. 2024.