Republic of Burundi: A 2025 Geopolitical Assessment

Burundi, a small, landlocked nation in East Africa, navigates a complex geopolitical landscape shaped by its troubled past and precarious present. Belgian colonial rule, marked by a "divide and conquer" strategy that exacerbated existing ethnic tensions between the Hutu majority and Tutsi minority, continues to haunt the country's efforts at national reconciliation and building a unified nation (Bar, Burundi 1993-2023). Despite a brief period of optimism following the end of the civil war in 2005 and the holding of democratic elections, political repression and restrictions on civic space persist, undermining the fragile democratic institutions. Its strategic location in the Great Lakes region, an area plagued by instability and cross-border conflicts, further complicates Burundi's situation, leaving it vulnerable to spillover risks from neighboring countries and regional power dynamics. 

Adding to these challenges, the country faces a severe economic crisis, marked by widespread poverty, food insecurity, and a struggling agricultural sector - the backbone of its economy - all while ranking as one of the world’s poorest countries with a per capita GDP of $836 (World Bank, Burundi Overview). These interconnected challenges, viewed through a post-colonialist lens that acknowledges the enduring impact of Belgium's divisive policies, create a complex and concerning geopolitical outlook for Burundi in 2025. Key risks include renewed political instability stemming from a disputed 2020 election and ongoing repression, economic hardship fueled by inflation, poverty, and the effects of climate change, and regional security threats emanating from the ongoing conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and persistent tensions with neighboring Rwanda.

Data Synthesis and Analysis

I. Historical Context & Colonial Legacies: 

The seeds of Burundi's current political and social challenges were sown during Belgian colonial rule (1916-1962). The Belgians implemented a system of ethnic division and inequality, favoring the Tutsi minority and creating a racial hierarchy that marginalized the Hutu majority. This legacy continues to shape Burundi's political landscape today, fueling ethnic tensions and hindering efforts at national reconciliation.

• Political Manipulation of Ethnic Divisions: Post-independence political elites inherited and perpetuated this system of ethnic division, manipulating identity politics to gain and maintain power. This cynical exploitation of ethnic identity, a direct consequence of Belgian colonial policies, continues to fuel conflict and undermine efforts to build a unified nation.

• Undermining of Traditional Institutions: Belgian colonial rule also systematically weakened traditional institutions of governance and conflict resolution, creating a power vacuum that has been filled by competing political factions often aligned along ethnic lines. The erosion of traditional authority and customary law, a key aspect of the colonial strategy, has further contributed to post-independence instability.

II. Political Developments (2020-2024): 

The 2020 elections, widely criticized as neither free nor fair (Freedom House, Burundi), marked a turning point in Burundi’s political trajectory. The subsequent crackdown on political opposition and dissent, including restrictions on freedom of expression and association, has created a climate of fear and undermined democratic progress. While the 2024 amnesty of some political prisoners was a positive step, more systemic reforms are needed to address the root causes of political instability.

• Suppression of Dissent: The government’s suppression of dissent and shrinking of civic space, a tactic reminiscent of colonial-era repression, limits opportunities for peaceful political participation and hinders the development of a vibrant civil society.

• Politicization of Institutions: The politicization of key institutions, including the judiciary and the electoral commission, undermines their independence and impartiality, further eroding public trust in the government and the fairness of political processes.

III. Institutional & Electoral Processes: 

Burundi's institutional framework, weakened by decades of political instability and authoritarian rule, faces ongoing challenges. The judiciary lacks resources and independence, and the National Independent Electoral Commission has not demonstrated impartiality, raising concerns about the fairness and credibility of future elections. The 2024 electoral reforms have raised further concerns about restrictions on independent candidates and political parties, potentially limiting the choices available to voters.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors:

Burundi's socio-economic situation is dire. The country faces extreme poverty, widespread food insecurity, and limited access to essential services. These challenges are particularly acute in specific rural areas and communities, and are further compounded by climate change and environmental degradation.

• Poverty and Inequality: Burundi is one of the world's poorest countries, with a majority of the population living in extreme poverty (Human Development Report, Breaking the Gridlock). Income inequality is also high, exacerbating social divisions and contributing to political instability.

• Food Insecurity (Regional Impacts): Food insecurity remains a major challenge, particularly in rural areas such as Cibitoke, Karuzi, and Kirundo provinces, which have been severely impacted by droughts in recent years. This has led to malnutrition and displacement, further straining already limited resources.

• Access to Basic Services: Access to basic services, such as healthcare and education, remains limited, especially in rural areas. This lack of access undermines human development and perpetuates cycles of poverty. Climate change, including drought and irregular rainfall, further exacerbates these challenges.

• Corruption and Mismanagement: Widespread corruption, a legacy of colonial exploitation and post-colonial mismanagement, diverts resources away from public services and undermines public trust in the government.

V. Security & Conflict Dynamics: 

Burundi’s security situation is precarious due to:

• Armed Groups: Attacks by armed groups near the border with the DRC pose a threat to security and stability. These groups exploit the country’s porous borders and the ongoing conflict in the DRC to carry out their activities.

• Political Violence: Political violence, often perpetrated by members of the Imbonerakure, targets political opponents, human rights defenders, and journalists, creating a climate of fear and further limiting civic space.

• Regional Tensions: Tensions with Rwanda, fueled by historical grievances and accusations of support for armed groups, remain high. This contributes to regional instability and increases the risk of renewed conflict.

VII. Foreign Policy Environment: 

Burundi’s foreign policy is driven by its need for development assistance and its complex relationship with its neighbors. The country seeks to balance its reliance on aid with its desire to maintain its sovereignty.

• Balancing Relationships: Burundi maintains relationships with a variety of external partners, including China, the US, and European countries. China has emerged as a key source of infrastructure financing, while the US continues to provide humanitarian aid. Burundi must navigate these relationships carefully to avoid becoming overly reliant on any single partner and ensure that its foreign policy serves its national interests.

• Regional Cooperation: Burundi’s membership in the EAC has had mixed results. While the organization has made some progress in promoting regional integration, Burundi’s domestic political situation and regional conflicts have limited the EAC’s effectiveness in addressing key challenges.

• De-escalation Efforts: Burundi has called for de-escalation of tensions with Rwanda and an end to the conflict in the DRC, demonstrating a desire for greater regional stability.

VIII. Unique to Burundi: The CNL Question

The CNL opposition party, once a powerful force in Burundian politics, has been weakened in recent years due to government repression and internal divisions. The removal of Agathon Rwasa from the party leadership in March 2024 raises critical questions about its future:

• Future of the Opposition: Will the CNL be able to regroup under new leadership and present a credible challenge to the ruling CNDD-FDD in future elections? The party's ability to function as a viable opposition is essential for democratic consolidation and the prevention of future conflict.

• Risk of Political Vacuum: If the CNL is marginalized, it could create a political vacuum that may be exploited by extremist groups, further destabilizing the country.

Sources Cited:

• ACAT. "Arbitrary Arrests; No Respite for Journalists and Political Activists.” August 2024.

• African Development Bank. “Burundi Economic Outlook.” 2024.

• Bar, Joanna. “Burundi 1993-2023: Decades of Missed Opportunities.” 2024.

• Boeyink, Clayton, and Stephanie Schwartz. “Tanzania's Threat to Expel Burundians Sets a Dangerous Precedent.” Foreignpolicy.com. November 15, 2023.

• Human Development Report. “Burundi 2023 Human Rights Report.” 2023.

• Human Rights Watch. “World Report 2025: Burundi.” 2025.

• World Bank. “Burundi Overview: Development news, research, data.” 2024.