Geopolitical Assessment: Republic of Mali (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Mali, a landlocked West African nation south of the Sahara Desert, is characterized by a Sahel-influenced geography encompassing arid deserts, semi-arid savannas, and the fertile Inner Niger Delta. Its climate is characterized by a long dry season and a short rainy season. The population, nearing 23 million, is comprised of diverse ethnic groups, primarily the Bambara, Fulani, Dogon, and Tuareg. These groups have distinct cultural identities, languages, and historical narratives, often rooted in pre-colonial empires and kingdoms (e.g., the Mali Empire, the Songhai Empire, the Macina Empire). The country's strategic importance stems from its location at the crossroads of trans-Saharan trade routes, connecting North, West, and Central Africa, its abundant natural resources (gold and increasingly strategic minerals like lithium), and its position as a frontier state in the Sahel region grappling with the southward expansion of the Sahara Desert due to climate change.

The geopolitical risk landscape is shaped by intertwined factors: democratic backsliding following repeated coups, economic vulnerability due to debt and dependence on commodity exports, persistent insecurity due to extremist groups and intercommunal violence, and escalating climate change impacts. These interconnected dynamics require a multifaceted and nuanced approach prioritizing strengthening state institutions, promoting inclusive economic growth, ensuring political stability, addressing historical grievances, and fostering intercommunal dialogue and reconciliation.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies:

• Pre-colonial era (pre-13th century – 1892): Before French colonization, the area encompassing present-day Mali was home to a succession of powerful empires and kingdoms, including the Ghana Empire (4th-13th centuries), the Mali Empire (13th-17th centuries), renowned for its vast wealth and influence under rulers like Mansa Musa; the Songhai Empire (15th-16th centuries), which controlled key trans-Saharan trade routes; and the Segu Bambara Kingdom and the Macina Empire (19th century), which represent more recent pre-colonial entities. These diverse political and social structures highlight Mali's long and complex history prior to colonization, a history marked by both centralized governance and decentralized power dynamics that continue to shape present-day identities, social structures, and intergroup relations.

• French Colonial Rule (1892-1960): French colonial policies, implemented through direct rule and military control, significantly reshaped Mali's political, economic, and social landscape. The French administration's policies of favoring certain ethnic groups (e.g., Bambara) for administrative positions and concentrating power in Bamako, the colonial capital, created lasting inequalities and grievances that continue to fuel tensions and conflicts, especially between the north and the south. The legacy of centralized governance and the suppression of traditional political and social structures during the colonial era continue to undermine efforts to build a truly representative and inclusive state in post-colonial Mali.

• Post-independence instability (1960-present): Since gaining independence from France in 1960, Mali has experienced chronic political instability marked by a series of military coups, beginning in 1968. These coups have repeatedly disrupted democratic transitions, weakened state institutions (including the judiciary and the military), and hampered economic development, creating a cycle of instability and mistrust between the government and its citizens. This history of political instability reflects the deep-seated challenges in consolidating democracy, building effective governance, and establishing a sustainable social contract between the state and its diverse population in post-colonial Mali.

II. Political Developments:

• 2020-2021 Coups and Democratic Backsliding: The two military coups in 2020 and 2021 overthrew democratically elected governments, marking a significant setback for democracy in Mali. These coups were motivated by a confluence of factors, including public discontent over the government's handling of the security crisis in the north, corruption allegations, and economic grievances. The military junta's seizure of power, followed by the suspension of democratic processes, the postponement of elections, and the crackdown on dissent, have deepened democratic backsliding and further eroded public trust in civilian rule. (FP, 2024; FH, 2024; BTI, 2024)

• Goïta's Rule and Eroding Public Trust: The ruling military junta, led by Col. Assimi Goïta, has failed to deliver on its initial promises of restoring stability and improving security. The junta's inability to effectively address the growing insecurity in the north and center of the country, coupled with its human rights abuses against civilians, have fueled public discontent and eroded trust in the regime. Goïta's authoritarian tactics, such as restricting civic space, suppressing dissent, and delaying a return to civilian rule, further undermine democratic norms and raise concerns about the future of political stability in Mali. (ADF, 2025; CSIS, 2024)

• Stalled Transition and Political Uncertainty: The ongoing political transition in Mali is characterized by uncertainty and a lack of clear benchmarks for a return to civilian rule. The junta's repeated postponement of elections, its ambiguous statements about the timeline for the transition, and its lack of meaningful engagement with opposition groups and civil society create a climate of uncertainty and distrust. This political limbo fuels speculation about the junta's true intentions, creates opportunities for political maneuvering, and increases the risk of further instability. (BTI, 2024)

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes:

• Postponed Elections and Democratic Deficit: The military junta's repeated postponement of elections, initially scheduled for February 2024 and subsequently delayed indefinitely, creates a democratic deficit and undermines the legitimacy of the transitional government. The lack of a clear electoral timeline fuels public distrust and raises concerns about the junta's commitment to a genuine transition to civilian rule. This undermines efforts to build sustainable democratic institutions and reinforces a pattern of military intervention in Malian politics. (BTI, 2024; FH, 2024)

• Ineffective Legislature and Lack of Accountability: The National Transition Council (NTC), appointed by the junta, lacks the authority, resources, and independence to function effectively as a legislative body. The NTC's limited powers and its dependence on the junta hinder its ability to hold the government accountable and to represent the interests of the Malian people. This lack of effective legislative oversight undermines democratic processes and reinforces the concentration of power in the hands of the military. (BTI, 2024)

• Judicial Weakness and Rule of Law Crisis: The Malian judiciary is weakened by a lack of resources, political interference, and corruption. This undermines its independence and impartiality, creating a crisis in the rule of law and due process. The judiciary's inability to effectively investigate and prosecute human rights abuses and other crimes, combined with a lack of access to justice for many Malians, fuels impunity and exacerbates the cycle of violence and instability. (CFR, 2024; FH, 2024)

IV. Socio-Economic Factors:

• Widespread Poverty and Lack of Basic Services: Persistent and deep poverty affects a large proportion of the Malian population, particularly in rural areas and the northern regions, where access to basic services (healthcare, education, clean water, sanitation, and electricity) remains limited. This poverty and lack of opportunity exacerbate existing inequalities, fuel social unrest, and create an environment conducive to conflict and instability, hindering efforts to achieve sustainable development goals. (World Bank, 2025; Global MPI, 2024)

• Dependence on Primary Commodities and Economic Vulnerability: Mali's economy is heavily dependent on gold and cotton exports, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices and impacting its ability to diversify its economy. This dependence on primary commodities limits the country's economic resilience and reduces its capacity to invest in other sectors, including infrastructure and human capital, which are essential for long-term economic growth and development. (World Bank, 2025)

• Climate Change Impacts and Food Insecurity: The agricultural sector, which employs a majority of the Malian population, is increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including droughts, floods, and desertification. These climate shocks exacerbate food insecurity, increase poverty, and drive displacement, particularly in rural areas, creating humanitarian crises and fueling conflict over scarce resources. (Global MPI, 2024)

• Regional Disparities and Marginalization: Deep-seated regional disparities, particularly between the more prosperous south and the marginalized north, persist in Mali. Northern and central Mali, specifically regions like Timbuktu, Gao, and Mopti, face significantly higher levels of poverty, insecurity, and limited access to basic services and economic opportunities. This historical marginalization fuels separatist sentiments, creates grievances against the government, and provides fertile ground for extremist recruitment, contributing to the cycle of violence and instability. (FP, 2024)

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics:

• Jihadist Groups and Terrorism: The ongoing presence and activities of jihadist extremist groups, primarily JNIM and ISGS, in northern and central Mali pose a significant threat to the country's security and stability. These groups, affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, respectively, engage in terrorist attacks, control territory, and exploit local grievances to recruit and mobilize fighters, fueling the ongoing conflict and displacing populations. (FP, 2024; CFR, 2024; CFR, 2024)

• Intercommunal Conflicts and Violence: Long-standing tensions and conflict between ethnic communities, particularly the Fulani (predominantly pastoralists) and Dogon (primarily farmers), have intensified in recent years, driven by competition over scarce resources (land and water), exacerbated by climate change impacts, and fueled by the proliferation of small arms. These intercommunal clashes result in numerous civilian casualties, displace populations, and disrupt livelihoods, contributing to instability and creating humanitarian crises. (FP, 2024; HRW, 2025)

• Human Rights Abuses by Security Forces: The Malian military, supported by Russian mercenaries (Wagner Group, renamed Africa Corps), has been implicated in widespread and systematic human rights abuses against civilians during counterterrorism operations. These abuses include extrajudicial killings, torture, enforced disappearances, and attacks on villages and displacement camps, often targeting specific ethnic communities (primarily Fulani). These abuses fuel resentment, erode trust in the security forces, and exacerbate the cycle of violence and conflict. (HRW, 2025; Eurasia Review, 2024)

VI. Foreign Policy Environment:

• Pivot to Russia and Western Alienation: Mali's increasing reliance on Russia as a security partner and its deployment of the Wagner Group mercenaries represent a significant shift in the country's foreign policy. This has led to the alienation of traditional Western partners, including France (the former colonial power) and the United States, and has created new geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel region, where Russia is seeking to expand its influence. (CFR, 2024; Carnegie, 2024)

• Withdrawal from ECOWAS and Regional Isolation: Mali's withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2025, along with Burkina Faso and Niger, further isolates the country from its West African neighbors and limits opportunities for regional cooperation on security, economic, and political issues. This self-imposed isolation undermines efforts to address shared challenges, such as terrorism, cross-border crime, and climate change, and exacerbates Mali's vulnerability to external shocks and internal instability. (CFR, 2024; World Bank, 2025)

• Regional Ambitions and Sahel Instability: Mali's aspirations to play a more assertive and influential role in the Sahel region, coupled with the instability in neighboring countries (Burkina Faso and Niger), create a complex and volatile security environment. Mali's military alliances with these countries, its participation in regional security initiatives (such as the G5 Sahel Joint Force), and its rhetoric emphasizing regional leadership reflect its ambitions, but its own internal instability and the fragility of its neighbors undermine its ability to effectively exert regional influence. (Carnegie, 2024)

VII. Unique Country Topics:

• Ethnicity, Conflict, and Identity Politics: Ethnicity plays a central role in shaping the conflict dynamics and political landscape in Mali. The marginalization of certain ethnic groups (particularly the Fulani) by the government, the targeting of civilians based on their ethnicity by security forces, and the instrumentalization of ethnic identities by political actors fuel tensions and violence. This complex interplay of ethnicity, conflict, and identity politics requires a nuanced and inclusive approach that addresses historical grievances, promotes intercommunal dialogue and reconciliation, and fosters a sense of shared national identity. (FP, 2024; HRW, 2025)

• Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, and Resource Conflicts: The nexus between climate change, environmental degradation, and resource conflicts is particularly acute in Mali. Climate change impacts, such as droughts, desertification, and changing rainfall patterns, exacerbate existing environmental challenges (land degradation and water scarcity), intensify competition over scarce resources (land and water) between pastoralist and farming communities, and contribute to conflict and displacement, especially in rural areas. (Global MPI, 2024; CFR, 2024)

• Islamist Extremism, Sufi Influence, and Religious Pluralism: Religion plays a complex and influential role in Mali's social and political landscape. Islamist extremist groups, such as JNIM and ISGS, exploit religious narratives to recruit fighters and justify violence, posing a threat to security and stability. Sufi orders, with their established networks and social influence, play a significant role in mediating conflicts and shaping public opinion. Navigating this complex religious landscape requires a nuanced approach that promotes religious tolerance, strengthens interfaith dialogue, and addresses the root causes of extremism. (FP, 2024)

Sources Cited

• ADF. "Public ‘Crisis of Confidence’ Plagues Mali's Junta After Military Losses." Africa Defense Forum, 2025.

• BTI. "2024 Country Report Mali." Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

• Carnegie. "Morocco's Atlantic Initiative and Potential Challenges to Regional Leadership." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024.

• CFR. "Fear and Loathing in the Sahel." Council on Foreign Relations, 2024.

• CFR. "Violent Extremism in the Sahel." Council on Foreign Relations, 2024.

• CSIS. "Mali: Untangling the Politico-Security Knot." Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2024.

• Eurasia Review. "Mali: Atrocities By The Army And Wagner Group, Says HRW." Eurasia Review, 2024.

• FP. "Why Militancy Is Spreading in Mali." Foreign Policy, 2024.

• FH. "Mali: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report." Freedom House, 2024.

• Global MPI. "Poverty amid Conflict." Global Multidimensional Poverty Index, 2024.

• HRW. "Mali." World Report 2025. Human Rights Watch, 2025.

• World Bank. "Mali Overview: Development news, research, data." World Bank, 2025.