Republic of Côte d'Ivoire: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Côte d'Ivoire, situated on the West African coast, presents a complex tapestry of geographical, demographic, and historical factors that shape its contemporary geopolitical landscape. Its diverse terrain encompasses coastal lagoons, rainforests, and savannahs, influencing economic activities and settlement patterns. A tropical climate along the coast transitions to semi-arid conditions in the north, impacting agricultural practices and resource availability. The country, home to approximately 28.1 million people, is a mosaic of over 60 distinct ethnic groups, with the Akan, Baoulé, and Malinke representing the largest communities. This ethnic diversity, while a source of cultural richness, has also fueled political tensions and conflicts throughout the country's history.

Côte d'Ivoire gained independence from France in 1960, inheriting a legacy of colonial rule that continues to shape its political and economic structures. The country's first president, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, presided over a period of relative stability and economic prosperity driven primarily by agricultural exports, notably cocoa and cashew nuts. However, this “Ivorian miracle” masked deep-seated inequalities and the suppression of political dissent, setting the stage for future conflicts.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape

Key Threats:

• Political Instability: Côte d'Ivoire's history is punctuated by periods of intense political instability, including military coups, civil wars, and electoral violence (BTI, 5; Crisis Group, 2/20). This legacy of conflict continues to shape the political landscape, creating a fragile democracy vulnerable to recurring power struggles and social unrest. The upcoming 2025 presidential election, with the incumbent's potential bid for a fourth term and the return of prominent opposition figures, presents a significant risk of renewed instability (Africa Center, 1/5; FPRI, 1/7).

• Security Dynamics: The country faces multiple security challenges. The threat of terrorism and violent extremism, emanating primarily from neighboring Sahel countries, has led to attacks in the past and remains a persistent concern (Crisis Group, 1/20; BMZ, 4/5). Internal conflicts, fueled by intercommunal tensions over land rights and resources, pose an additional risk, particularly in the western cocoa belt and along the border with Burkina Faso where competition for resources between local farmers and migrating herders could escalate. Furthermore, the proliferation of small arms and light weapons following past conflicts remains a significant security concern.

• Economic Vulnerability: Côte d'Ivoire's economy remains vulnerable to external shocks, including fluctuations in global commodity prices and demand, which directly impact the country's key agricultural exports (Credendo, 2/6; ISS, 3). The country also faces persistent poverty, unemployment, and inequality (BTI, 6), particularly pronounced in rural areas and among marginalized groups. These socio-economic challenges, exacerbated by the country's heavy reliance on agricultural exports, create an environment conducive to social unrest and political instability.

Strategic Considerations:

• Strengthening Democratic Institutions: A critical priority is to strengthen democratic institutions and processes to enhance stability and good governance (Freedom House, 3/5). This includes ensuring free, fair, and transparent elections, promoting the independence of the judiciary, and fostering a culture of respect for human rights and the rule of law. Efforts should also focus on creating a more inclusive political system that addresses the concerns of all stakeholders, including marginalized groups.

• Economic Diversification: Côte d'Ivoire's long-term economic prosperity hinges on diversifying its economy beyond agricultural exports and fostering a more dynamic and resilient private sector (World Bank, 1/5). Investment in manufacturing, technology, and renewable energy sectors, coupled with policies that promote innovation and entrepreneurship, is crucial for achieving this goal.

• Regional Cooperation: Active engagement in regional cooperation mechanisms, such as ECOWAS, is essential for addressing shared challenges such as security, trade, and economic development (Crisis Group, 2/20). Collaboration with neighboring countries on issues such as cross-border security, migration management, and regional economic integration can promote stability and mutual prosperity.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies:

• French Colonial Rule (1843-1960): French colonial rule in Côte d'Ivoire began in the mid-19th century and lasted for over a century. During this period, French authorities imposed a centralized administrative system, exploited the country's resources (primarily agricultural products such as coffee, cocoa, and timber), and suppressed indigenous political and cultural expressions. The French also implemented policies that favored certain ethnic groups, exacerbating existing social divisions and creating a hierarchy that privileged some communities over others. This legacy of colonial rule contributed to the political instability and ethnic tensions that plagued Côte d'Ivoire following independence. Moreover, the focus on agricultural exports created an economic structure heavily reliant on volatile commodity prices, leaving the country vulnerable to external shocks.

• Post-Independence Era (1960-1993): Félix Houphouët-Boigny's rule, extending from independence in 1960 to his death in 1993, was a period of relative stability and economic growth, often referred to as the "Ivorian miracle.” This period saw Côte d'Ivoire emerge as a regional economic powerhouse, attracting significant foreign investment and achieving relatively high levels of human development. However, this period was also marked by authoritarian rule, suppression of political opposition, and ethnic favoritism. The one-party state (Parti Démocratique de la Côte d’Ivoire - Rassemblement Démocratique Africain [PDCI-RDA]) that dominated the political landscape contributed to a culture of impunity and a lack of accountability. Moreover, the continued focus on agricultural exports created an economic structure vulnerable to external shocks, setting the stage for future crises.

• 1990s and 2000s: Coups, Conflicts, and Crises: Following Houphouët-Boigny's death, Côte d'Ivoire experienced a turbulent period of political instability and conflict, including military coups, civil wars, and electoral violence (BTI, 5). The 1999 coup led by General Robert Guéï, the 2002-2007 civil war, and the disputed 2010 presidential election, which sparked post-electoral violence, significantly weakened the country's institutions, exacerbated existing social divisions, and further undermined economic progress. The legacy of these conflicts is visible in deep-seated social traumas, a fragile security environment, and a weakened state capacity.

II. Political Developments:

• 2020 Presidential Election: A Contested Outcome: The 2020 presidential election, marked by President Ouattara's controversial third-term bid, opposition boycotts, and low voter turnout, exposed the fragility of Côte d'Ivoire's democratic institutions and raised concerns about the credibility of the electoral process (FPRI, 1/7; Freedom House, 2/16). The election was marred by violence and unrest, deepening political divisions and creating an environment of distrust and uncertainty.

• 2023 Local Elections: A Test of Democratic Progress: The September 2023 local and regional elections, although relatively peaceful compared to previous polls, were contested by some opposition parties who alleged irregularities and fraud (Freedom House, 2/16). This highlights the ongoing challenges in ensuring the integrity and transparency of the electoral process and the need for continued efforts to strengthen democratic institutions.

• Government Transitions and Instability: Côte d'Ivoire has undergone several Government transitions since the 1990s, often marked by political instability and uncertainty (BTI, 5). The frequency of these transitions underscores the fragility of the political system and the need for a more predictable and stable governance environment.

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes:

• 2025 Presidential Election: A Pivotal Moment: The 2025 presidential election, with President Ouattara's potential bid for an unconstitutional fourth term and the likely participation of several strong candidates, including figures from past conflicts, is expected to be a defining moment in Côte d'Ivoire's political trajectory (Africa Center, 1/5; FPRI, 1/7).

• Independent Electoral Commission: The Independent Electoral Commission's independence and impartiality are crucial for ensuring the credibility of the electoral process (Africa Center, 3/5; World Bank, 1/5). However, concerns about its lack of transparency and independence and the need for greater inclusion of civil society in its operations have been raised, indicating that continued reform is essential.

• Judiciary Reform: The judiciary remains susceptible to political influence and corruption (Freedom House, 9/16), undermining the rule of law and eroding public trust. Strengthening the judiciary's independence and impartiality is essential for ensuring due process, promoting accountability, and creating a level playing field for all political actors.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors:

• Economic Performance and Structural Constraints: Despite periods of economic growth, particularly in the 2010s, Côte d'Ivoire faces persistent socio-economic challenges, including high poverty, unemployment, and inequality (World Bank, 1/5; Crisis Group, 2/3; BTI, 6). The country's dependence on agricultural exports and the large size of its informal economy constrain economic diversification and inclusive growth, making the country vulnerable to external shocks such as fluctuations in commodity prices.

• Debt Burden and Fiscal Space: Côte d'Ivoire's rising public debt burden and shrinking fiscal space limit the Government's ability to invest in essential public services and infrastructure, hindering efforts to address critical social and economic challenges, especially those related to SDG attainment (Credendo, 4/6; BTI, 12). The country's vulnerability to debt distress (Credendo, 5/6) and high interest payments as a proportion of government revenue constrain efforts to improve service delivery and public investment, exacerbating socio-economic disparities.

• Infrastructure Development and Connectivity: Infrastructure development, particularly in rural areas and the regions bordering Mali and Burkina Faso, is crucial for promoting economic growth, improving access to essential services, and connecting remote communities to the national grid (World Bank, 2/5; Crisis Group, 5/20; BTI, 15). Lack of access to transportation, energy, and digital infrastructure limits economic opportunities, hinders trade, and exacerbates regional disparities.

• Combating Corruption and Promoting Transparency: Corruption remains a pervasive challenge in Côte d'Ivoire, undermining good governance, eroding public trust, and hindering economic development (BTI, 10). Efforts to strengthen anti-corruption measures and promote transparency in government and business practices have had limited impact, emphasizing the need for continued efforts.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics:

• Insecurity and Violence in the North: The northern regions bordering Mali and Burkina Faso are a hotspot for insecurity and violence, driven by the presence of armed groups, extremist organizations, and cross-border criminal activity (Crisis Group, 5/20). The increasing flow of refugees from Burkina Faso into these regions exacerbates existing tensions over scarce resources, posing significant risks to the civilian population.

• Internal Conflicts and Tensions: Côte d'Ivoire has a history of internal conflicts and social tensions, often fueled by ethnic and regional divisions (Freedom House, 13/16). The legacy of past conflicts continues to shape the political landscape, and there is a risk of renewed violence, particularly during election cycles.

• Foreign Interference and Disinformation: Concerns about foreign interference in the country's internal affairs, including disinformation campaigns and the spread of harmful narratives on social media, remain high (FPRI, 3/7). This type of manipulation is intended to undermine democratic institutions, exacerbate political polarization, and exploit existing social divisions.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment:

• Relations with France and Western Countries: Côte d'Ivoire's traditionally close ties with France and other Western countries have come under strain in recent years as the country seeks to rebalance its relations with external partners (FPRI, 4/7). This shift is partly motivated by concerns about neocolonialism and the legacy of French interventionism in the country's internal affairs.

• Engagement with Russia and China: Côte d'Ivoire is actively seeking new partnerships with non-Western powers such as Russia and China, driven by a desire to diversify its diplomatic and economic relations (FPRI, 4/7). This engagement, however, carries its own risks, including concerns about the influence of authoritarian regimes and the implications for the country's democratic institutions.

• Regional Alliances and Dynamics: Côte d'Ivoire plays an important role in regional organizations such as ECOWAS and participates in regional security cooperation initiatives (Africa Center, 3/5). However, the effectiveness of these alliances and initiatives is limited by persistent challenges such as political instability, coups d'état, and the growing presence of non-state armed actors in the region.

VII. Unique to Country Topics:

• Role of Traditional Actors: Traditional leaders and institutions, including dozos and village chiefs, play an influential role in conflict resolution, dispute settlement, and community governance in many parts of Côte d’Ivoire (Crisis Group, 7/20). These actors are often deeply embedded within local communities and enjoy a high degree of legitimacy and trust among the local population, and their involvement in formal peace and reconciliation processes can contribute to strengthening social cohesion.

• Impact of Artisanal Mining: The prevalence of artisanal mining, particularly gold mining, poses significant social, economic, and environmental challenges (Crisis Group, 7/20). The lack of regulation and control in this sector creates risks of environmental degradation, human rights abuses, and conflict over resources.

• Youth and Women's Empowerment: The Ivorian youth population and women are a dynamic force with the potential to drive economic growth and social progress (Africa Center, 3/5). Empowering young people and women through education, skills training, entrepreneurship opportunities, and increased participation in the political and economic spheres is crucial for realizing the country's demographic dividend and achieving sustainable development. This is especially pertinent given the persistent exclusion of women and girls from educational, economic, and political opportunities.

Sources Cited

• Africa Center. “Côte d'Ivoire: Efforts to Forge Resiliency Face Stiff Test.” 2025.

• BTI. "BTI 2024 Country Report - Côte d'Ivoire." Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

• Credendo. "Côte d'Ivoire: Strong prospects amid global challenges.” 2025.

• Crisis Group. "Keeping Jihadists Out of Northern Côte d'Ivoire." 2023.

• FPRI. "The Risk of Foreign Intrusion in Presidential Elections in Cote d'Ivoire.” 2025.

• Freedom House. “Côte d'Ivoire: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report." 2024.

• ISS. "Côte d'Ivoire Geographic Futures." 2024.

• World Bank. “Côte d'Ivoire Overview.” 2024.