People's Republic of Burkina Faso: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Burkina Faso, a landlocked West African nation, presents a complex and dynamic geopolitical landscape. Its Sudano-Sahelian climate, characterized by a rainy season from June to September and a dry season for the rest of the year, significantly impacts agricultural production and livelihoods. This climate vulnerability, coupled with landlockedness, has historically constrained economic development and contributed to social vulnerabilities. Its terrain, primarily consisting of flat plains in the central plateau and some higher elevations in the west and southwest, further complicates infrastructure development and access to resources. The country's diverse population of approximately 23 million encompasses over sixty ethnic groups, with the Mossi being the largest. This ethnic diversity, while a source of cultural richness, has also been a source of political and social tensions, particularly in recent years with the rise of identity-based conflicts. Historically, Burkina Faso has been an agricultural economy with cotton production as its main export, a legacy of French colonial policies that prioritized cash crop production over food security and diversified economic development. Its strategic importance in the Sahel region stems from its position bordering Mali and Niger, countries grappling with escalating insecurity fueled by extremist groups. This precarious location has made Burkina Faso a key player in regional security efforts, a transit point for migration flows, and a recipient of international aid, while also exposing it to the spillover effects of regional instability.

The overall geopolitical risk landscape is very high, driven by several interconnected factors:

• Political Instability: Two military coups in 2022, followed by the suspension of the constitution and postponement of elections, have created a power vacuum and raised concerns about a return to democratic rule.

• Escalating Violence: Jihadist attacks, intercommunal clashes, and human rights abuses by security forces have intensified, leading to a sharp increase in civilian casualties and displacement.

• Humanitarian Crisis: Widespread displacement, food insecurity, and limited access to basic services have created a dire humanitarian situation, exacerbating existing social and economic vulnerabilities.

• Shifting Alliances: The country's move away from traditional Western partners towards closer ties with Russia and other actors reflects a changing geopolitical landscape and has implications for regional stability and international partnerships.

• Climate Change: Burkina Faso's vulnerability to climate change, including droughts, floods, and extreme weather events, further compounds these challenges, impacting agricultural production, livelihoods, and human security.

Strategic considerations for Burkina Faso in 2025 include:

• Balancing security and development: Addressing the root causes of conflict and instability, while also investing in sustainable development and human capital, is crucial for long-term stability and resilience.

• Managing regional spillovers: Mitigating the impact of regional instability, particularly from neighboring Mali and Niger, is essential for Burkina Faso's security and development.

• Navigating the geopolitical landscape: Engaging strategically with international partners, including Western powers, Russia, and regional actors, is crucial for balancing national interests and promoting regional stability.

• Fostering national reconciliation: Addressing historical grievances and promoting dialogue between communities are essential for building social cohesion and mitigating identity-based conflicts.

• Strengthening climate resilience: Investing in climate adaptation measures and promoting sustainable development are crucial for reducing vulnerability to climate change and its impacts.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies: Françafrique's Lingering Shadow

• French Colonial Rule (1896-1960): French colonial policies, which prioritized resource extraction (particularly cotton) and neglected local development, created lasting economic and social disparities. This legacy of exploitation has fueled resentment towards France and contributed to anti-Western sentiment. The suppression of local cultures and political systems during colonial rule also undermined traditional governance structures and weakened the foundation for post-independence state-building.

• Françafrique (Post-1960): The continuation of France's neocolonial influence in Burkina Faso after independence, characterized by close political and economic ties, has further exacerbated resentment and distrust towards France and the West. This post-colonial relationship has often been perceived as exploitative and has contributed to political instability, as seen in the recurring military coups and protests against French influence.

II. Political Developments: From "Pays des Hommes Intègres" to Military Rule

• Coups d'État (1966, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987, 2014, 2015, 2022, 2022): Burkina Faso's history has been punctuated by a series of military coups, reflecting deep-seated political instability and the military's prominent role in politics. These coups often stem from grievances about governance, corruption, and economic hardship, as well as personal power struggles within the military and political elite.

• Current Junta (2022-Present): Captain Ibrahim Traoré's rise to power through a coup in September 2022 marks a significant shift in Burkina Faso's political trajectory. His leadership has been characterized by an authoritarian approach, crackdowns on dissent, restrictions on civil liberties, and a turn away from Western alliances in favor of closer ties with Russia.

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes: Democracy Deferred

• Postponed Elections: The indefinite postponement of elections, initially scheduled for July 2024, has further solidified the military's grip on power and raised doubts about a return to democratic rule. This move has been met with criticism from civil society organizations and international partners who view it as a setback for democratic progress.

• Transitional Legislative Assembly: The creation of a transitional legislative assembly with limited powers underscores the military's dominance over political processes and the erosion of democratic checks and balances.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors: A Nation in Distress

• Humanitarian Crisis: Burkina Faso is facing a severe humanitarian crisis fueled by escalating violence, displacement, and climate change. Over two million internally displaced people (IDPs), or nearly 10 percent of the population, primarily reside in the Centre-Nord, Sahel, North, and East regions (UNHCR, 2024). Access to education and healthcare is severely disrupted, with numerous schools and health facilities closed due to insecurity. These challenges exacerbate existing social and economic vulnerabilities, particularly among women and children, and contribute to the country's low ranking in the Human Development Index (HDI) (UNDP, 2024).

• Food Insecurity: Burkina Faso is one of the most food insecure countries in Africa with 3.8 million people-about 20 percent of the population-in need of food assistance (Concern Worldwide, 2024). This crisis has been exacerbated by conflict, climate change, and rising food and fertilizer prices, creating additional hardship for vulnerable households.

• Poverty and Unemployment: Burkina Faso's economy remains largely agrarian, with limited economic opportunities. Poverty and unemployment rates are high, especially among young people, contributing to social unrest and exacerbating existing inequalities. The country's economic growth has slowed in recent years, further complicating efforts to address these socio-economic challenges.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics: Jihadism's Grip

• Extremist Violence: Burkina Faso has become a focal point for jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Attacks by these groups, as well as other armed groups and intercommunal clashes, have surged in recent years, causing a sharp increase in civilian casualties and displacement. The northern and eastern regions, particularly those bordering Mali and Niger, have been hardest hit, but violence has spread to other parts of the country. (ACLED, 2025)

• Military Abuses: Burkina Faso's security forces have been implicated in human rights abuses during counterinsurgency operations, including extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and attacks on civilians (Human Rights Watch, 2024). These abuses further erode trust in the government and exacerbate social tensions, potentially fueling further violence.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment: Shifting Sands, New Allies

• Pivot to Russia: Burkina Faso's decision to sever ties with France and expel French troops and diplomats marks a significant shift in the country's foreign policy. This move reflects growing anti-Western sentiment fueled by disinformation campaigns and opens the door for greater Russian influence in the Sahel (London Politica, 2025; Foreign Policy, 2024). The deployment of Russian mercenaries to assist in counterterrorism efforts has raised concerns among Western governments.

• Türkiye's Engagement: Burkina Faso has also strengthened its military and economic ties with Türkiye, which has become a key supplier of military equipment, including drones, to the country (London Politica, 2025). This relationship reflects a broader trend of diversification of security partnerships in Africa, as countries seek alternative sources of support and influence.

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• Resource Nationalization: The nationalization of gold mines (Boungou and Wahgnion), a strategic move to assert greater control over natural resources, reflects a growing trend in resource-rich African nations seeking to maximize domestic benefits. However, it has raised concerns among international investors about the security of their investments (LinkedIn Post, 2025). This strategy reflects a post-colonial desire for economic self-determination and control over resources historically exploited by foreign powers.

• Debt Clearance: Burkina Faso's recent debt clearance, presented as a milestone towards economic autonomy, has improved the country's credit profile and created fiscal space for investments (LinkedIn Post, 2025). However, questions remain about the long-term sustainability of this approach and its potential impact on relations with international financial institutions.

• Climate Change Vulnerability: Burkina Faso's vulnerability to climate change, including droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures, poses significant challenges to agricultural production, livelihoods, and human security (Concern Worldwide, 2024; Human Rights Watch, 2025). Limited adaptive capacity and resource constraints exacerbate these challenges, making climate resilience a key priority for the country.

Sources Cited

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• Afrobarometer. 2024. "Africans' Bleak Views of Economic Conditions Match Their Escalating Experience of Poverty, Afrobarometer Surveys Find"

• African Union. 2023. "The African Leaders Nairobi Declaration on Climate Change and Call to Action".

• Brookings Institution. 2024. Foresight Africa 2024.

• Council on Foreign Relations. 2024. "Fear and Loathing in the Sahel".

• Council on Foreign Relations. 2025. "Prince of the Sahel."

• Foreign Policy. 2024. "The End of Françafrique?"

• Freedom House. 2024. "Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report."

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• International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2024. "Burkina Faso Selected Issues."

• LinkedIn Post. 2025. "Burkina Faso's Economic Sovereignty: A New Era for Africa's Financial Independence".

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• Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative/United Nations Development Programme. Multidimensional Poverty Index 2024.

• RealClear World. 2025. "Forgotten Wars: Conflict Intensifies in Burkina Faso"

• The Africa Report. 2025. "Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger: Report shows Sahel accounted for 51% of global terrorism deaths in 2024."

• Transformative Institutionalism: Bertelsmann Stiftung's Transformation Index (BTI) 2024. Country Report. 2024

• UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees). 2024. "Burkina Faso forced displacement report."