Republic of Benin: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Benin, a West African nation bordered by Togo, Nigeria, Niger, and Burkina Faso, presents a complex geopolitical landscape shaped by its colonial past, democratic transitions, and evolving security dynamics. Its coastal location on the Gulf of Guinea gives it strategic importance as a maritime and commercial hub. Benin's diverse geography, tropical climate, and multi-ethnic population further contribute to its unique socio-political dynamics. While the country transitioned to democracy in 1990 and has experienced periods of economic growth, significant challenges remain. Persistent poverty, high levels of inequality, and the rising threat of violent extremism emanating from the Sahel region are key concerns. This assessment examines Benin's geopolitical landscape through a post-colonialist lens, exploring the interplay of these factors and the impact of Benin's history and relationships with external powers on its present and future trajectory.

Geopolitical Risk Landscape

Benin's most pressing geopolitical risks are:

• Regional Instability & Spillover of Violent Extremism: Instability in the Sahel, particularly in Burkina Faso and Niger, poses a significant threat, exacerbated by porous borders and limited cross-border cooperation.

• Political Polarization & Democratic Backsliding: Authoritarian trends under President Talon, coupled with declining trust in institutions, raise concerns about democratic erosion and social unrest.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• French Colonial Rule (1894-1960): French colonial rule had a profound and lasting impact, shaping Benin's institutions, economy, and society:

  • Legal and Administrative Systems: Benin inherited a legal system based on French civil law and administrative structures that continue to reflect French colonial influence. This legacy presents challenges for developing independent institutions and adapting governance to Benin's specific context. It also makes Benin more susceptible to French influence in its internal affairs.

  • Economic Ties: Benin's economy remains closely tied to France through trade, investment, and the use of the CFA franc. While offering some stability, this dependence can also limit Benin’s economic diversification and make it vulnerable to fluctuations in the French economy.

  • Ethnic Divisions: The arbitrary borders drawn during the colonial era exacerbated pre-existing ethnic tensions by grouping together disparate communities with competing interests and claims to resources. This legacy continues to pose challenges for national unity and integration, fueling local conflicts and hindering efforts to build a shared national identity.

• Post-Independence Relations with France ("Françafrique"): Following independence, France maintained close political, economic, and military ties with Benin, often supporting authoritarian regimes to protect its strategic interests in the region. This "Françafrique" relationship, as it's often called, limited Benin's political and economic autonomy, hindered democratic development, and contributed to a culture of impunity for human rights abuses. France's continued involvement in Benin's internal affairs, including through military interventions and economic agreements, has shaped the country's foreign policy orientation and its approach to regional security challenges.

II. Political Developments

• Democratic Transition (1990): Benin's transition to multi-party democracy in 1990 marked a significant shift away from authoritarian rule. However, democratic consolidation has been a long and challenging process.

• Talon Presidency and Authoritarian Trends (2016-present): The election of Patrice Talon as president in 2016, and his re-election in 2021, ushered in a period characterized by growing concerns about democratic backsliding and authoritarian tendencies:

  • 2021 Presidential Election: The exclusion of key opposition figures from the 2021 presidential election raised serious doubts about the fairness and inclusivity of the electoral process, limiting democratic participation and fueling political polarization.

  • 2023 Parliamentary Elections: The 2023 parliamentary elections, while allowing the return of some opposition representation, were marred by low voter turnout and restrictions on fundamental freedoms, such as freedom of expression and assembly, signaling a shrinking of civic space. This raised concerns about the government's commitment to democratic principles and its respect for civic rights.

• Opposition and Civil Society: Despite facing restrictions and challenges, opposition political parties and civil society organizations remain active in Benin. They advocate for democratic reforms, government accountability, and respect for human rights, playing an important role in holding the government to account and promoting a more pluralistic and inclusive political environment. Their activities, however, often face constraints from the government, which limits their effectiveness and influence.

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Institutional Weaknesses: Benin's democratic institutions, while formally in place, face challenges related to capacity, independence, and public trust.

• Judicial Independence: The judiciary's vulnerability to executive pressure undermines the rule of law and due process. The establishment of CRIET, perceived by many as a tool to suppress political dissent, further intensifies concerns about the politicization of the judiciary.

• Electoral System Shortcomings: The electoral commission's lack of full transparency and impartiality, coupled with restrictions on political participation and declining voter turnout in recent elections, erodes trust in electoral processes and raises doubts about the fairness and credibility of elections.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• North-South Divide: A significant socio-economic divide exists between Benin's more prosperous southern regions and its underdeveloped north.

• Northern Poverty: The northern departments of Alibori, Atacora, and Borgou are particularly affected by high poverty rates, limited access to basic services, and recurrent farmer-herder clashes. This disparity fuels social unrest and resentment toward the government, creating fertile ground for instability and potentially for extremist recruitment.

• Informal Economy's Role: Benin's large informal economy, while providing livelihoods for a majority of the population, poses challenges for economic development and governance. It limits access to formal financial services, reduces government revenue, and exacerbates inequality.

• Youth Unemployment: High unemployment and underemployment rates, especially among youth, further strain Benin's social fabric and pose a significant threat to long-term stability.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Sahel Extremism: Benin faces a growing threat from transnational extremist groups, primarily JNIM and ISGS, operating in the Sahel region.

• Cross-Border Incursions: These groups exploit Benin’s porous borders with Burkina Faso and Niger to carry out cross-border attacks, targeting civilians and engaging in kidnapping for ransom and disrupting economic activity, particularly in border regions.

• Internal Tensions: Farmer-herder conflicts, fueled by resource scarcity and climate change, contribute to internal instability and have the potential to escalate into wider conflict, providing fertile ground for extremist recruitment, particularly among marginalized youth.

• Historical and Social Factors: Historical land disputes, ethnic tensions, and limited access to resources have contributed to localized conflicts, while the spillover of regional conflicts adds another layer of complexity.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Diversification from Traditional Partners: Benin is actively seeking to diversify its foreign policy partnerships, moving away from traditional reliance on Western powers (France, United States) toward increased engagement with China, Türkiye, and India. This shift represents Benin's attempt to gain greater agency in its foreign policy and pursue its own national interests in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

• Regional Engagement (ECOWAS): Benin actively participates in regional organizations like ECOWAS, prioritizing regional integration, security cooperation, and attracting foreign investment to address shared challenges and promote stability.

• Balancing Act: Benin aims to strike a balance between its relationships with Western powers and emerging economies, maximizing benefits while safeguarding its autonomy and avoiding overreliance on any single partner. This balancing act reflects a strategic effort to navigate the complexities of great power competition and secure its long-term interests.

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• Digital Benin: Benin's pursuit of becoming West Africa's "digital service platform" is a key element of its development strategy. However, realizing this ambition faces several challenges:

  • Limited Electricity Access: Reliable and affordable electricity access remains a major constraint, hindering the development of digital infrastructure and the wider adoption of digital technologies.

  • Digital Divide: A persistent digital divide, particularly in rural areas, excludes marginalized communities from accessing digital services and opportunities.

  • Skills Gap: A shortage of digital skills and human capital further limits the potential of digital technologies for driving economic growth and innovation.

  • Data Governance: A lack of a robust data governance framework with adequate privacy and cybersecurity protections undermines trust in digital systems and creates vulnerabilities for data breaches and misuse.

• Youth Unemployment and the SEZ: Addressing high youth unemployment is a critical priority for Benin. The SEZ project aims to attract foreign investment and promote industrialization to create jobs, but faces numerous hurdles. These include the need for significant investments in infrastructure, education and skills development, and navigating the risk of creating regional economic disparities and distortions in resource allocation.

• Cotton Sector Development: Promoting the cotton sector is another key element of Benin’s development strategy. The government is seeking to increase cotton production, enhance value addition, and boost exports, aiming to create jobs, increase farmer incomes, and contribute to economic diversification. However, Benin faces challenges in modernizing its cotton production methods and ensuring access to global markets.

Sources Cited

• "2024 Africa Sustainable Development Report." African Union, African Development Bank, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2024.

• "Benin Sustainable Development Report 2024". SDSN Benin and SDSN. 2024.

• "Benin: Fourth Review under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, and the First Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Request for Modification of a Quantitative Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Benin." IMF Country Report No. 24/338, International Monetary Fund, June 2024.

• "Benin 2023 Human Rights Report." Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, United States Department of State, 2024.

• Foresight Africa Top Priorities for the Continent in 2024. Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings, 2024.

• Priorities for the New U.S. Administration and Congress on Strengthening Economic Relations with Africa. Zainab Usman, editor. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024.

• World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025. UN DESA, 2025.