Geopolitical Assessment: Republic of South Sudan (2025)

Introduction and Overview

South Sudan, situated in East-Central Africa, navigates a complex geopolitical landscape shaped by its geography, demography, and history. The country, characterized by vast plains, swamps, and tropical forests, experiences a hot, humid climate with distinct wet and dry seasons. This climate pattern influences agricultural practices, livelihoods, and resource availability, often contributing to conflict dynamics. South Sudan is home to a diverse population of over 60 ethnic groups, primarily the Dinka, Nuer, Shilluk, and others. These groups have complex histories of intergroup relations marked by both cooperation and conflict, with power dynamics and historical grievances rooted in pre-colonial structures and further exacerbated by British colonial rule. The discovery of significant oil reserves prior to independence from Sudan in 2011 thrust South Sudan onto the global stage, attracting attention from major powers such as the United States and China, while also fueling internal conflict over resource control. Independence, achieved in 2011, was followed by a brutal civil war (2013-2018) driven by political rivalries, ethnic tensions, and competition for resources. While a peace agreement was signed in 2018, establishing a power-sharing government, the country continues to grapple with fragility, a precarious humanitarian situation, and the struggle for lasting peace, stability, and development.

Key Threats and Strategic Considerations:

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

II. Political Developments

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

VII. Unique to Country Topics

Sources Cited

Crisis Group. “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War.” International Crisis Group, 2025.

Chatham House. “South Sudan's shaky peace is at risk of collapse. Can it be saved?” Chatham House, 2025.

Foreign Policy. “South Sudan Is Returning to War.” ForeignPolicy.com, 2025.

CFR. "South Sudan is a Test for the African Union." Council on Foreign Relations, 2025.

Global R2P. "South Sudan." Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, 2025.

Human Rights Watch. "World Report 2025: South Sudan.” Human Rights Watch, 2025.

Small Arms Survey. Various Reports. Small Arms Survey, 2023.

UN Human Rights report. "Report of the Human Rights Council." UN Human Rights Council, 2024.

BTI. "BTI 2024 Country Report - South Sudan." Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.