Geopolitical Assessment: Republic of South Sudan (2025)

Introduction and Overview

South Sudan, situated in East-Central Africa, navigates a complex geopolitical landscape shaped by its geography, demography, and history. The country, characterized by vast plains, swamps, and tropical forests, experiences a hot, humid climate with distinct wet and dry seasons. This climate pattern influences agricultural practices, livelihoods, and resource availability, often contributing to conflict dynamics. South Sudan is home to a diverse population of over 60 ethnic groups, primarily the Dinka, Nuer, Shilluk, and others. These groups have complex histories of intergroup relations marked by both cooperation and conflict, with power dynamics and historical grievances rooted in pre-colonial structures and further exacerbated by British colonial rule. The discovery of significant oil reserves prior to independence from Sudan in 2011 thrust South Sudan onto the global stage, attracting attention from major powers such as the United States and China, while also fueling internal conflict over resource control. Independence, achieved in 2011, was followed by a brutal civil war (2013-2018) driven by political rivalries, ethnic tensions, and competition for resources. While a peace agreement was signed in 2018, establishing a power-sharing government, the country continues to grapple with fragility, a precarious humanitarian situation, and the struggle for lasting peace, stability, and development.

Key Threats and Strategic Considerations:

• Resurgence of Conflict: Clashes between government and opposition forces, inter-ethnic violence, and renewed fighting threaten the peace agreement and could escalate into a full-blown civil war.

• Political Instability: President Kiir's health issues and a contentious succession process create uncertainty and could destabilize the fragile governing coalition.

• Economic Crisis: Damage to a critical oil pipeline in neighboring Sudan and declining oil revenues constrain government spending and threaten to destabilize the country.

• Spillover of Conflict from Sudan: The ongoing civil war in Sudan, with involvement by external actors, risks escalating and destabilizing South Sudan through the flow of weapons, refugees, and foreign fighters.

• Humanitarian Crisis: Ongoing conflict, food insecurity, and displacement pose a severe threat to civilians and limit access for humanitarian organizations.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• Colonial Legacy of Division: British colonial rule, which lasted from 1899 to 1956, imposed artificial borders and political structures that disregarded existing ethnic and cultural divisions, exacerbating tensions and creating a legacy of marginalization and conflict that persists in independent South Sudan. The unification of the south with the Arab-dominated north under Sudanese rule further deepened these divisions.

• Conflict and Displacement: Decades of conflict, first as part of Sudan and later during the civil war leading up to independence, resulted in widespread displacement, loss of life, and destruction of infrastructure, further complicating the post-independence state-building process and creating deep-seated grievances and mistrust between communities.

• Weak Institutional Development: The colonial legacy of limited investment in education, healthcare, and other essential services, combined with the disruption and displacement caused by conflict, has contributed to weak institutional capacity and a lack of qualified personnel in South Sudan, hindering efforts to build effective governance structures.

• Unequal Resource Distribution: The legacy of unequal distribution of resources and opportunities during the colonial and post-independence periods has fueled grievances and competition between ethnic groups in South Sudan, contributing to conflict and instability.

II. Political Developments

• Power Consolidation and Exclusion: President Kiir's efforts to consolidate power through cabinet reshuffles, dismissals, and arrests of key opposition figures, including Vice President Riek Machar, have further marginalized the opposition and heightened political tensions, increasing the risk of renewed conflict. (Chatham House, p.1, p.2; Crisis Group, p.1; ISS, p.2; Foreign Policy, p.2)

• Erosion of Power-Sharing Agreement: The government's unilateral actions, including the removal of opposition-aligned state governors and the reported targeting of non-Dinka communities, have undermined the fragile power-sharing agreement and increased distrust between the warring factions. (Foreign Policy, p.2; ISS, p.1)

• Escalation of Interethnic Tensions: The government's actions, coupled with accusations of supporting attacks on non-Dinka communities, have fueled fears of broader ethnic violence and further polarized the already fragile political landscape. (Foreign Policy, p.2)

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Delayed Transition: Repeated postponements of national elections, originally scheduled for 2022 and now tentatively planned for 2026, have prolonged the transitional period and hindered progress toward establishing a democratic government. (Crisis Group, p.1; Global R2P, p.2) This delay, attributed to insecurity, lack of political will, and logistical challenges, has created uncertainty and undermined public trust in the political process.

• Stalled Reforms: The failure to implement key provisions of the 2018 peace agreement, including security sector reforms and the drafting of a new constitution, has left key institutions weak and ineffective, increasing the risk of renewed conflict and undermining the transition to a more stable and democratic government. (Crisis Group, p.2; Global R2P, p.2)

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• Widespread Poverty and Inequality: High levels of poverty and inequality, exacerbated by hyperinflation, lack of access to basic services, and the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and conflict in Sudan, have fueled widespread discontent among citizens and increased social unrest, creating a volatile environment and undermining development efforts. (Foreign Policy, p.3; World Bank, p.1; Crisis Group, p.2)

• Oil Dependence and Economic Crisis: South Sudan's heavy reliance on oil revenues for government revenue and the disruption of oil production due to both internal conflict and damage to the pipeline transiting Sudan have plunged the country into a deep economic crisis, limiting the government’s capacity to provide essential services, fund development projects, and manage the economy. This dependence on oil has also made the country vulnerable to external shocks, including fluctuations in global oil prices and regional instability. (Crisis Group, p.3; Chatham House, p.3; Foreign Policy, p.3; CFR, p.7)

• Regional Disparities and Competition: Significant regional disparities in wealth, development, and access to resources have fueled competition and conflict between communities, exacerbating existing grievances and hindering efforts to promote inclusive development. (Foreign Policy, p.3; Crisis Group, p.3) These disparities, often rooted in historical marginalization and political exclusion, undermine efforts to build a cohesive national identity and foster peace and stability.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• Ongoing Localized Violence: Intercommunal violence, often rooted in competition for resources like land and cattle, and fueled by the proliferation of small arms and weak rule of law, continues to destabilize communities across South Sudan, causing civilian casualties and displacement. (Global R2P, p.1; CFR, p.1)

• Clashes Between Armed Groups: Clashes between government forces and various armed groups, including ethnic militias and community defense forces, persist in several parts of the country, notably in the oil-rich Upper Nile region, Jonglei, Unity, and Western Equatoria, threatening the fragile peace process and causing significant humanitarian suffering. (Crisis Group, p.3; Foreign Policy, p.3; Chatham House, p.3; Global R2P, p.3; Human Rights Watch, p.1)

• Targeted Attacks on Civilians: Targeted attacks on civilians, often based on ethnicity or perceived political affiliation, continue to be perpetrated by both government and non-government armed groups, exacerbating existing tensions and fueling cycles of violence. These attacks contribute to the humanitarian crisis and undermine efforts to promote reconciliation.

• Risk of Regional Conflict Spillover: South Sudan's porous borders and the involvement of neighboring countries in the ongoing conflict in Sudan, as well as instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, increase the risk of cross-border conflict spillover, the recruitment of South Sudanese fighters, and the proliferation of weapons, further destabilizing the country. (Crisis Group, p.2; Chatham House, p.1, p.3)

VI. Foreign Policy Environment

• Complex Regional Dynamics: South Sudan's foreign policy is shaped by a complex web of regional alliances and rivalries, influenced by historical ties, economic interests, and geopolitical competition between major powers. (Chatham House, p.1) These competing interests create uncertainty and complicate efforts to resolve regional conflicts and promote stability.

• Economic Dependence and Vulnerability: South Sudan's dependence on Sudan for oil exports and transit routes makes it highly vulnerable to events in Sudan, including conflict, political instability, and economic crises, limiting its economic autonomy and ability to pursue an independent foreign policy. (Crisis Group, p.2; Chatham House, p.3)

• International Engagement and Aid: Despite the challenges, several international actors, including the United Nations, the African Union, and various think tanks, continue to engage with South Sudan and provide humanitarian assistance, development aid, and policy recommendations, creating opportunities for progress toward peace, stability, and development. (CFR, p.7; Crisis Group, p.4)

VII. Unique to Country Topics

• The Centrality of Ethnicity in Politics: Ethnicity remains a central factor in South Sudanese politics and conflict, with political alliances and rivalries closely aligned with ethnic identities and historical grievances. The dominance of the Dinka in the government and the Nuer in the opposition has fueled ethnic tensions and increased the risk of intercommunal violence, undermining efforts to build a unified national identity. (Chatham House, p.1, p.4; Foreign Policy, p.1, p.4)

• Endemic Corruption and Mismanagement: Corruption is pervasive throughout South Sudan's government and institutions, diverting public resources, undermining public trust, and fueling grievances that contribute to conflict and instability. The lack of transparency and accountability, coupled with weak rule of law, makes it extremely difficult to address corruption effectively and hinders efforts to promote good governance and sustainable development. (Chatham House, p.2; Foreign Policy, p.3, p.38)

• Climate Change Vulnerability and Humanitarian Impact: South Sudan's vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and changing rainfall patterns, has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and intensified competition for scarce resources, increasing the risk of conflict and displacement. (Global R2P, p.2; World Bank, p.1; BTI, p.4, p.17).

• Human Rights Crisis and Impunity: Widespread human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, torture, arbitrary arrests, sexual violence, and the recruitment and use of child soldiers, continue to be perpetrated by both government and non-government armed groups in South Sudan, with almost no accountability for the perpetrators. This pervasive culture of impunity, fueled by decades of conflict and weak rule of law, hinders efforts to build a peaceful and just society and undermines the credibility of the government and justice system. (Human Rights Watch, p.1; Global R2P, p.3; Small Arms Survey, p.3ff; UN Human Rights report, p.3ff)

Sources Cited

Crisis Group. “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War.” International Crisis Group, 2025.

Chatham House. “South Sudan's shaky peace is at risk of collapse. Can it be saved?” Chatham House, 2025.

Foreign Policy. “South Sudan Is Returning to War.” ForeignPolicy.com, 2025.

CFR. "South Sudan is a Test for the African Union." Council on Foreign Relations, 2025.

Global R2P. "South Sudan." Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, 2025.

Human Rights Watch. "World Report 2025: South Sudan.” Human Rights Watch, 2025.

Small Arms Survey. Various Reports. Small Arms Survey, 2023.

UN Human Rights report. "Report of the Human Rights Council." UN Human Rights Council, 2024.

BTI. "BTI 2024 Country Report - South Sudan." Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.