Republic of Angola: Geopolitical Assessment 2025

Introduction and Overview

Angola, a country on southern Africa's Atlantic coast, emerged from a 27-year civil war (1975-2002) which followed independence. At the height of the Cold War, the battles for Angola became a proxy war between the West and the Communist bloc (Open Doors, 2). The civil war had begun even before independence was gained in 1975 and was caused mainly by ideological differences among the factions who were fighting for independence (Open Doors, 2). The country boasts a wealth of natural resources, particularly oil and diamonds. It is bordered by Namibia in the south, the Democratic Republic of Congo to the north, Zambia to the east and by the Atlantic Ocean to the west (Open Doors, 2). Angola’s climate ranges from tropical to subtropical. Its terrain is a mixture of semiarid coastal lowlands, jungle-covered hills, and an interior plateau. (CIA World Factbook). As of 2024, Angola's population is estimated at 37.8 million, characterized by increasing urbanization and a relatively young demographic profile (Open Doors, 2). Ethnic groups include Ovimbundu (37%), Kimbundu (25%), Bakongo (13%), Mestico (a mixed European and native African descent) (2%), and other (23%) (Open Doors, 8). Key communities such as the Ovimbundu and Kimbundu are politically relevant, with the Ovimbundu traditionally being linked to UNITA, and the Kimbundu to MPLA (Freedom House, 5).

Overall Geopolitical Risk Landscape

Angola remains vulnerable to several interconnected risks, which are amplified by a G-Zero world where decisive global leadership is lacking (Eurasia Group, 7). Key threats include:

• Oil Price Volatility: Angola's economy remains heavily reliant on oil exports, making it susceptible to fluctuations in global oil prices and hindering diversification efforts (IMF Staff Report, 10). The 2024 Fiscal Sustainability Law establishes fiscal anchors, which if not fully met, could worsen economic prospects as reliance on oil prices is projected to continue.

• Fiscal Sustainability Risks: While the recovery from the 2020 shock is underway, Angola’s fiscal position remains fragile. Public debt and dependence on oil revenue pose significant challenges to long-term fiscal sustainability (IMF Staff Report, 10). Delays in the implementation of structural reforms, including the complete phaseout of fuel subsidies by 2025, could exacerbate fiscal pressures.

• Weak Governance and Corruption: Despite ongoing efforts, corruption remains endemic, hindering private sector development and investor confidence. This, coupled with limited diversification and a high unemployment rate among the youth, fuels social unrest and instability (U.S. Department of State Investment Climate Statements, 32).

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies

• Angola's history of Portuguese colonization has profoundly shaped its current political and economic landscape. The legacy of colonial rule includes extractive industries focused on resource exploitation, weak institutional capacity, and deep social inequalities. The post-independence civil war further exacerbated these issues.

• The MPLA's Marxist-Leninist one-party rule from independence until 1991 solidified its control over the political and economic spheres (BTI 2024, 5). While recent political liberalization efforts have been made, the long-term effects of MPLA's near-total dominance remain evident in the country's governance structures and power dynamics. This is primarily driven by the MPLA’s control over critical sectors, including state media (Freedom House, 5).

• Despite Angola securing its independence from Portugal in 1975, its subsequent relationship with Washington was one of distance, until formally recognized by US President Bill Clinton in 1993 (Chatham House, 2).

II. Political Developments

• The August 2022 elections, while deemed free of widespread abuse, witnessed a victory for incumbent President João Lourenço and the ruling MPLA. The MPLA secured 51.1% of the vote and 124 seats, the opposition UNITA trailed far behind with 44% of the vote and 90 seats (BTI 2024, 8).

• Despite a multi-party system, the MPLA's continued dominance of the political landscape raises concerns about political pluralism. Opposition parties face bureaucratic obstacles in gaining traction and report intimidation by security forces (Freedom House, 11).

• There have been increased reports of arbitrary arrests of activists and government critics, particularly surrounding protests against rising fuel prices and other socio-economic issues, indicating a concerning trend of restricting political freedoms and freedom of association (Freedom House, 11; Human Rights Watch, 36). This trend undermines the growth of a robust civil society critical for democratic governance.

• Opposition criticism of the government remains limited and censored by security forces, hindering political dialogue and government transparency. Journalists face self-censorship, as a result of the lack of a free press (BTI 2024). The continued censorship of social media and arbitrary arrests of activists further stifles free expression (Open Doors, 4).

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes

• Executive power remains highly centralized in the presidency, affecting the independence of the judiciary and legislative functions. Supreme Court judges are politically appointed and lack independence from the MPLA party (Freedom House, 10).

• Ongoing investigations into high-level corruption, including a probe into former President Dos Santos and his family, represent positive steps towards greater accountability. However, skeptics remain regarding the depth and scope of these investigations (Freedom House, 11).

• Local elections, originally slated for 2020, have been postponed multiple times. These delays are hindering progress toward greater political decentralization, which is crucial for improving local governance and service delivery. The government cites logistical challenges, but opposition groups perceive this as a delaying tactic (BTI 2024, 9).

IV. Socio-Economic Factors

• Angola continues to grapple with a high level of poverty and inequality. Despite oil wealth, the benefits have not trickled down effectively to the majority of the population, who remain economically marginalized. (U.N. Multidimensional Poverty Index, 9). The unequal distribution of income is exemplified by IMF statistics that show that 39.2% of national income goes to the top 10% and only 1.6% goes to the bottom 50%.

• Unemployment, particularly among youth, poses a major challenge, with rates exceeding 30%. Limited economic diversification and a heavy reliance on the oil sector are key drivers of this (U.N. World Economic Situation and Prospects, 16). Initiatives are underway to generate livelihoods by focusing on youth and women in entrepreneurship, through venture capital funds and targeted investment in sectors such as small- and medium-sized enterprises (Foresight Africa, 88, 70, 76).

• Angola's economic recovery has been driven by rising oil prices, however. The non-oil sector is expected to strengthen gradually. The government has taken measures to tighten the fiscal stance to reduce inflation, with modest spending cuts and an increase in non-oil revenue (IMF Press Release, 1). The Kwenda Social Protection program and cash transfers are ongoing government initiatives to combat poverty (World Bank).

• Angola is implementing initiatives to improve human capital development and economic diversification. Investment in education, skills, health, and access to food security are highlighted as key priorities for promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth (UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework).

• The government has demonstrated a commitment to improving the investment climate with its new National Development Plan (2023-2027). This focuses on infrastructure modernization, economic diversification, and improving governance (U.S. Department of State Investment Climate Statements, 1). However, investors continue to face challenges, including a complex and opaque judicial system and bureaucratic bottlenecks (U.S. Department of State Investment Climate Statements, 2).

• Angola is prioritizing the development of its digital infrastructure for economic growth. However, costs of hardware and software, as well as access to electricity, are major impediments to technology adoption and creating a robust digital economy (Foresight Africa, 150-151).

• Climate change poses a significant threat to Angola's predominantly young population. Angola urgently needs a transformation of its education and infrastructure systems if it is to truly benefit from its demographic dividend (Foresight Africa, 103). Moreover, increased vulnerability to water stress and scarcity continues to negatively affect both human and ecosystem health, compounded by an exploding urban population (HDR, 39).

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics

• The security situation in Cabinda remains unstable due to separatist insurgents associated with the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC), although HRW noted no conflict during 2023. This low-level insurgency poses a persistent threat to internal stability and foreign investment (Human Rights Watch, 2).

• Porous borders with the DRC and the Republic of the Congo present transnational security risks, including the movement of armed groups, illicit trafficking, and refugees. Angola plays a significant role in regional security through peacekeeping efforts, especially in the DRC (World Bank, 36; Congressional Research Service, 9).

VI. International Relations: A Balancing Act

• China: China has emerged as Angola's largest trading partner, primarily driven by China's demand for Angolan oil and its provision of loans for infrastructure development (Congressional Research Service, 6). This economic relationship has granted China considerable influence in Angola. Chinese investments, particularly in the infrastructure sector, have spurred the construction of roads, hospitals, and other crucial projects, though concerns about debt sustainability and transparency persist. Recent reports show that Chinese lending to the Angolan government has declined, potentially impacting future projects (Congressional Research Service, 7). Despite this decline, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) agreements indicate continued bilateral economic engagement between the countries.

• United States: The U.S. has sought to re-engage with Angola in recent years, emphasizing strategic cooperation on security, governance, and economic diversification (Congressional Research Service, 9). U.S. support has focused on strengthening democratic institutions, promoting good governance, and fostering a more diversified and resilient economy. Angola is increasingly viewed as a strategic partner by the U.S. in a multipolar world where there is a strategic competition for access to Africa’s vital resources (Chatham House, 3). Key initiatives such as the Lobito Corridor project, supported by U.S. funding and involvement, aim to improve regional infrastructure and unlock access to critical minerals, potentially countering Chinese influence (Chatham House, 3).

• Multipolar Foreign Policy: Angola is increasingly pursuing a multipolar foreign policy, strengthening ties with various countries beyond China and the U.S., including the UAE, Turkey, and France (Chatham House, 3). This diversified approach affords Angola greater leverage in international relations and reduces reliance on any single power. President Lourenço’s interest in strengthening relations with France is also evidenced by his visit to Paris in early 2025 and indication that Angola would like to join the Commonwealth (Chatham House, 3).

• Regional Influence: Angola plays an important mediating role in regional conflicts, particularly in the DRC, which is strategically important for both regional stability and broader geopolitical dynamics. (Chatham House, 3; Congressional Research Service, 8). Angola’s mediation role is welcomed by the United States.

Sources Cited

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