State of Eritrea: A Geopolitical Assessment (2025)

Introduction and Overview

Eritrea, a young nation on the Horn of Africa, won its independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a 30-year war. This hard-fought liberation struggle, coupled with the country's strategic location on the Red Sea coast, profoundly shapes its national identity and foreign policy. Eritrea's varied terrain encompasses coastal plains, central highlands, and western lowlands, influencing settlement patterns and economic activities. Its arid climate, punctuated by irregular rainfall, poses significant challenges to agricultural productivity and food security. Eritrea's population is a mosaic of nine recognized ethnic groups, primarily the Tigrinya, Tigre, and Saho, each with distinct languages, cultures, and historical experiences. Its economy, hampered by decades of conflict and isolation, relies heavily on mining, subsistence agriculture, and remittances from the vast Eritrean diaspora.

The geopolitical risk landscape in Eritrea is complex and precarious. Key threats include internal political instability stemming from authoritarian rule and restrictions on freedoms, a vulnerable economy grappling with poverty, food insecurity, and unemployment, a humanitarian crisis fueled by drought and displacement, and the simmering tensions with neighboring countries, especially Ethiopia. These vulnerabilities are compounded by the risk of renewed conflict, exploitation by external actors seeking to gain a strategic foothold in the Horn of Africa, and limited engagement with the international community. Despite these challenges, opportunities exist through leveraging Eritrea's strategic location on the Red Sea, particularly its ports, and its relatively untapped mineral reserves, especially those crucial for the global energy transition, to attract much-needed foreign investment and promote sustainable development. However, capitalizing on these opportunities hinges on addressing Eritrea's governance deficit and human rights record, fostering trust with the international community, and implementing critical economic and political reforms.

Data Synthesis and Organization

I. Historical Context and Colonial Legacies: Shaping Eritrea’s Present

• Protracted Liberation Struggle (1961-1993): Eritrea's three-decade war for independence from Ethiopia forged a strong sense of national identity, but also instilled a deep-seated suspicion of external interference and an emphasis on self-reliance. This legacy continues to influence the country's politics and foreign policy today. (Dizolele et al., 3; FPIF) This liberation struggle was unique in that it received little international support and was fought primarily by Eritreans.

• Italian Colonialism (1890-1941): Italian colonial rule left its mark on Eritrea through the development of infrastructure, particularly in urban centers like Asmara, and the introduction of Italian language and culture. However, this period also involved racial segregation, exploitation of resources, and suppression of local culture. (Modern Diplomacy, 2)

• British Administration (1941-1952): Following Italy's defeat in World War II, Eritrea came under British administration. This period saw the dismantling of some Italian colonial institutions, but also involved strategic considerations by the British to link Eritrea to Ethiopia, laying the groundwork for future conflict. (FPIF, 1)

• Federation with Ethiopia (1952-1962): The U.S.-backed federation between Eritrea and Ethiopia, intended to serve U.S. strategic interests in the region, ultimately fueled Eritrean resistance and triggered the 30-year war. (FPIF, 1) This period underscored the disregard for Eritrean self-determination by external powers.

• Ethiopian Annexation (1962-1991): Ethiopia's annexation of Eritrea and subsequent three-decade military occupation fueled Eritrean resistance, resulting in the formation of armed groups and a protracted liberation struggle. (FPIF, 2) This period further cemented Eritrean distrust of Ethiopia.

II. Political Developments: Authoritarianism and Repression

• One-Party State: Eritrea is a one-party state dominated by the PFDJ and President Isaias Afwerki, who has ruled since independence. (BTI, 4; Dizolele et al., 8) The PFDJ emerged from the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF), the dominant liberation movement during the war of independence. This historical legacy has contributed to the PFDJ's enduring grip on power, but has also stifled political pluralism and dissent.

• Suppression of Dissent: The government systematically suppresses political opposition and dissent, restricting freedoms of speech, assembly, and association. (HRW, 1; Dizolele et al., 7) This repression has contributed to an environment of fear and self-censorship, limiting public participation in political life.

• Arbitrary Detention and Enforced Disappearances: Arbitrary detention and enforced disappearances are widespread, targeting journalists, political opponents, and those attempting to flee the country. (HRW, 2; BTI, 3, 6) The government holds political prisoners, many of whom have been detained for decades without charge or trial. The most prominent example is the group of eleven journalists and politicians arrested in 2001, whose fate remains unknown. (HRW, 2)

III. Institutional and Electoral Processes: Absence of Democracy

• Unimplemented Constitution: Despite ratifying a constitution in 1997, it remains unimplemented, and there have been no national elections since independence. (BTI, 4; Dizolele et al., 8) This highlights the government's disregard for the rule of law and democratic processes.

• Defunct National Assembly: The National Assembly, intended to be the legislative body, has not convened since 2002 and is effectively defunct. (BTI, 4) This lack of a functioning legislature concentrates power in the hands of the president and his inner circle.

• Absence of Local Elections: No local or regional elections have been held, further centralizing power and hindering local governance development. (Dizolele et al., 7) This reinforces the top-down nature of Eritrean politics and the limited autonomy of local communities.

IV. Socio-Economic Factors: Poverty and Dependence

• Widespread Poverty and Food Insecurity: Eritrea is one of the poorest countries in the world, with widespread poverty, food insecurity, and unemployment. (Dizolele et al., 3; African Futures, 11, 17; World Bank, 1) The economy remains heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture, which makes it extremely vulnerable to drought and climate shocks.

• Chronic Shortages: The country faces chronic electricity blackouts and shortages of essential commodities, including fuel and drinking water, particularly in rural areas and among marginalized communities. (BTI, 3; U.S. Department of State, 18)

• Remittance Dependence: Eritrea's economy is heavily reliant on remittances from the diaspora, highlighting the lack of domestic economic opportunities and the dependence on external financial flows. (Dizolele et al., 3, 10; BTI, 4)

• Closed Economy: Eritrea maintains a largely closed economy, with strict government controls on trade and foreign exchange, limiting economic growth and diversification. (Dizolele et al., 3; African Futures, 48; Amnesty International, 1) This has resulted in a shortage of essential consumer goods and limited opportunities for the development of a vibrant private sector.

• Strategic Ports and Connectivity: Despite the constraints of its closed economy, Eritrea's deepwater ports on the Red Sea—Massawa and Assab—and its location on major transit routes offer significant potential for economic development through enhanced connectivity with regional and international markets. (Dizolele et al., 10) This has positioned Eritrea as a potential hub for trade and logistics in the Horn of Africa, though developing this potential fully depends on broader economic and political reforms.

V. Security and Conflict Dynamics: Militarization and External Threats

• Border Dispute with Ethiopia: The unresolved border dispute with Ethiopia, stemming from the 1998-2000 war, remains a key source of tension and a potential trigger for renewed conflict. (Dizolele et al., 7; BTI, 5) The presence of Eritrean troops in the Tigray region of Ethiopia during the recent conflict (2020-2022) further strained bilateral relations and highlights the potential for escalation.

• Mandatory National Service: Eritrea's policy of mandatory, indefinite national/military service, instituted after independence, is justified by the government on the basis of national security concerns. (BTI, 3; HRW, 1) However, it is widely criticized for its abusive nature, amounting to forced labor and depriving young people of educational and employment opportunities, thus fueling their mass exodus. (U.S. Department of State, 1, 16; HRW, 2)

• Instability in Neighboring Countries: The ongoing conflict in neighboring Sudan, the political instability in Ethiopia, and the potential for conflict in other parts of the Horn of Africa present significant security threats to Eritrea. (Dizolele et al., 1, 7; CFR) This underscores the interconnected nature of security dynamics in the region and the spillover effects of conflicts beyond borders.

VI. Foreign Policy Environment: Shifting Alliances

• Strained Relations with Western Countries: Eritrea's human rights record and lack of political and economic reforms have led to strained relations with Western countries, especially the United States. (Modern Diplomacy, 1; BTI, 6) This has resulted in limited diplomatic engagement and development assistance from the West.

• Shifting Towards China and Russia: Eritrea's strained relations with the West, coupled with its pursuit of investment and security partnerships, have led it to strengthen ties with China and Russia. (Modern Diplomacy, 2; CSIS, 5) China's investment in infrastructure and mining and Russia's potential establishment of a military base in Massawa are evidence of this shift. This reorientation of alliances could further isolate Eritrea from Western influence.

• Regional Dynamics: Eritrea's role in the Horn of Africa is complex. It has mediated in conflicts, such as in Sudan, and has been a member of regional organizations like IGAD. However, its regional influence is limited by its internal political situation and tense relationships with some neighbors. (CSIS)

VII. Unique to Country Topics: Systemic Drivers

• National Service (Giffga): Eritrea's mandatory national/military service, locally referred to as Giffga, conscripts all citizens (with few exemptions) upon completion of secondary school for an indefinite period. (HRW, 1; BTI, 3; U.S. Department of State, 1) This policy, justified by the government on the basis of national security threats, is widely criticized for amounting to forced labor and is a major driver of emigration.

• Diaspora Tax (2% Tax): All Eritreans living abroad are required by law to pay a 2% tax on their foreign-earned income to the government. (U.S. Department of State, 7) This tax, seen by many as a form of extortion, is collected through Eritrea's embassies and consulates and enforced through threats to withhold consular services. (Dizolele et al., 10)

• Mining Sector (Strategic Minerals): Eritrea's mining sector, while holding significant potential with reserves of gold, copper, and other strategic minerals, is underdeveloped due to government control, lack of transparency, and the departure of Western companies. (U.S. Department of State, 1, 13) This underscores the challenge of balancing the need for investment and development with concerns about resource exploitation and governance.

Sources Cited

• African Futures and Innovation Programme (African Futures). "Eritrea: Geographic Futures." Institute for Security Studies, 2025.

• Bertelsmann Stiftung (BTI). "BTI 2024 Country Report Eritrea." Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2024.

• Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “Vying for Regional Leadership in the Horn of Africa: Kenya and Ethiopia, Competitors or Partners?” 2025.

• Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). "Alarm Bells in Tigray.” 2025.

• Foreign Policy In Focus (FPIF). “Eritrea.” 1997.

• Human Rights Watch (HRW). "World Report 2025: Eritrea." Human Rights Watch, 2025.

• Modern Diplomacy. “Rethinking American Foreign Policy Toward Eritrea: The Need for Nuance.” 2025.

• United States Department of State. "2024 Investment Climate Statements: Eritrea.” United States Department of State, 2024.