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Best Direction of a Play:
Stephen Daldry, Skylight – previously won for Billy Elliot; previously nominated for An Inspector Calls
Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time – previously won for War Horse
Scott Ellis, The Elephant Man – previously nominated for Twelve Angry Men and for five musicals
Jeremy Herrin, Wolf Hall
Moritz von Stuelpnagel, Hand to God
An extremely worthy category this year, where all of the nominees deserve a Tony. In their debuts, Stuelpnagel and Herrin achieve extraordinary things. Stephen Daldry always does great work directing British dramas, he also directed The Audience. Scott Ellis was omnipresent this season, also directing You Can’t Take It With You (to great acclaim), On the Twentieth Century (which should also have garnered him a nomination), and The Real Thing (they can’t all be winners). In fact, Scott Ellis is ridiculously overdue for a Tony, and one of these years he will finally be recognized… but probably not this year.
Marianne Elliot has collected both the OCC and the Drama Desk for her incredible vision in Curious Incident. In a field of heavyweights, she is the clear frontrunner, and will almost certainly partake in Curious Incident’s sweep on Tony night. It’s hard to even say who might challenge her in the category; the likeliest is Stuelpnagel for the roller coaster of an experience that watching Hand to God is.
Win Win: Marianne Elliott (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Might Win: Moritz von Stuelpnagel (Hand to God)
Should Win: Marianne Elliot
Best Direction of a Musical:
Sam Gold, Fun Home
Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten! – previously won for Book of Mormon; previously nominated for The Drowsy Chaperone (also nominated for Choreography)
John Rando, On the Town – previously won for Urinetown
Bartlett Sher, The King and I – previously won for South Pacific; four other prior nominations
Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris (also nominated for Choreography)
In the last eight years, the winner of Best Director was the director of either the Best Musical or Best Revival, so this award is useful for seeing which way the wind is blowing in the middle of the Tonys. Before the show, however, it’s a tossup. The least likely winner is John Rando, who directed a three-hour snoozefest that snuck into the Tonys. Sam Gold also should be nowhere near the award, as he took good material (Alison Bechdel’s memoir) and failed at making it work as a musical.
As for the other three, it could really go either way. Both Bartlett Sher and Casey Nicholaw do great work, and Nicholaw should honestly get the award just for the epic production number “A Musical.” But it was Wheeldon who won the OCC in this category, so there’s a good chance he will get the award. This category is a real nailbiter, it’s really too close to call.
Will Win: Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!)
Might Win: Bartlett Sher (The King and I)
Should Win: Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!)
Best Choreography
Joshua Bergasse, On the Town
Christopher Gattelli, The King and I – previously won for Newsies; previously nominated for South Pacific
Scott Graham & Steven Hoggett, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time – Hoggett previously nominated for Rocky and Once
Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten! – four previous nominations (also nominated for Direction)
Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris (also nominated for Direction)
This category is an embarrassment of riches. There are two dance musicals represented, which would obviously be considered the frontrunners. But they have stiff competition from some choreographing superstars. Gattelli, who is the only prior winner in this field, created the most iconic choreography in recent memory with the Newsies. Casey Nicholaw, meanwhile, is the master of huge production numbers that obviously involve awesome dancing. And the dark horse in the race is Curious Incident, the first instance in twenty-three years of a non-musical being nominated for choreography.
While any winner would be worthy, it’ll be a huge upset if American in Paris doesn’t win. They won the OCC, the Drama Desk, and the dance-specific Astaire Award (the highest honor for dance in theatre). The show’s been gaining momentum in the entire Tony race, and its dancing is its chief selling point, so this one is pretty close to a sure thing. The potential spoiler would be On the Town – while it is mind-numbingly tedious, one cannot fault the choreography. Since Tony voters (unlike everyone else) inexplicably like this show, this could be On the Town’s consolation prize… but that’s unlikely.
Will Win: Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)
Might Win: Joshua Bergasse (On the Town)
Should Win: Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!) because he is way overdue for a Tony
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Something Rotten! – previously won for Follies and The Drowsy Chaperone; three other prior nominations
Bob Crowley, An American in Paris – previously nominated for Mary Poppins, Aida, and Les Liaisons Dangereuses (nominated in four categories this year)
William Ivey Long, On the Twentieth Century – six previous wins, eight other previous nominations
Catherine Zuber, The King and I – five previous wins; six other prior nominations
There are a lot of heavyweights in this category this year. At the moment, it would appear the opulence of Siam’s costumes makes Catherine Zuber the frontrunner; she’s the one who got the OCC. The Drama Desk went to Gigi, which was egregiously snubbed by the Tonys, so that is no help in prognosticating. Zuber’s fiercest competition is likely Gregg Barnes, who outfitted a whole cast in Elizabethan getups, codpieces and all.
Will Win: Catherine Zuber (The King and I)
Might Win: Gregg Barnes (Something Rotten!)
Should Win: can’t say, having not seen The King and I yet
Best Costume Design of a Play
Bob Crowley, The Audience - previously nominated for Mary Poppins, Aida, and Les Liaisons Dangereuses (nominated in four categories this year)
Jane Greenwood, You Can’t Take It With You – 18 previous nominations; winner of Lifetime Achievement Tony last year
Christopher Oram, Wolf Hall (also nominated for Scenic Design)
David Zinn, Airline Highway – previously nominated for In the Next Room (also nominated for Scenic Design of Fun Home)
Like most awards for costuming, it’s wise to never bet against a period drama. Christopher Oram managed to outfit a cast of dozens in Tudor finery for Wolf Hall, so he is pretty much assured the Tony here. A potential spoiler would be The Audience, but its costume changes are more impressive than the costumes themselves, so Wolf Hall it’ll be.
Will Win: Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall)
Might Win: Bob Crowley (The Audience)
Should Win: Christopher Oram
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Bob Crowley and 59 Productions, An American in Paris – six previous wins, five other previous nominations (nominated in four categories this year)
David Rockwell, On the Twentieth Century – previously nominated for Kinky Boots, Lucky Guy, and Hairspray (also nominated for You Can’t Take It With You)
Michael Yeargan, The King and I – previously won for South Pacific and The Light in the Piazza; three other prior nominations
David Zinn, Fun Home (also nominated for Costume Design of Airline Highway)
This one is hard to predict having seen only half the nominees. Michael Yeargan has a very good track record with similar productions, so he’s definitely a contender. David Rockwell’s set for On the Twentieth Century is incredibly imaginative, creating both the inside and outside of a moving train, and a sparkly Triumphal Arch to boot. In addition, Rockwell has yet to win a Tony, so this could be his year. But An American in Paris has been on a hot streak, winning the Drama Desk, so they’re likeliest to get the Tony.
Will Win: Bob Crowley and 59 Productions (An American in Paris)
Might Win: David Rockwell (On the Twentieth Century)
Should Win: David Rockwell
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Bunny Christie & Finn Ross, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Bob Crowley, Skylight – six previous wins, five other previous nominations (nominated in four categories this year)
Christopher Oram, Wolf Hall – previously nominated for The Cripple of Inishmaan and Red (also nominated for Costume Design)
David Rockwell, You Can’t Take It With You – previously nominated for Kinky Boots, Lucky Guy, and Hairspray (also nominated for On the Twentieth Century)
There’s a lot going on here. Most surprising is the omission of Hand to God, which has such a cool set that there is a pause at the beginning of Act 2 just so audiences can take it in. It should have replaced Wolf Hall, which is nominated despite not actually having a set. It’s just actors standing on a bare stage – that can’t count as “scenic design.” So Wolf Hall is the least likely to win. This writer has not seen Skylight; however, Bob Crowley has pulled off a rather stunning hat trick of being nominated in every costume and scenic design category this year. If his supporters rally, it probably won’t be in this category but in the musical categories. You Can’t Take It With You could be a viable contender, but the winner here is a no-brainer: Curious Incident.
Curious Incident’s set (along with all its other design elements) is astounding – a physical representation of the inside of Christopher’s mind. It’s clever, it’s visually pleasing, and it’s unlike anything that’s come before. Curious Incident won the OCC, and will assuredly walk off with the Tony.
Will Win: Bunny Christie & Finn Ross (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Might Win: No one else
Should Win: Bunny Christie & Finn Ross
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Donald Holder, The King and I – previously won for South Pacific and Lion King; eight other prior nominations
Natasha Katz, An American in Paris – four previous wins; six other prior nominations (also nominated for Skylight)
Ben Stanton, Fun Home
Japhy Weideman, The Visit – previously nominated for Of Mice and Men and The Nance (also nominated for Airline Highway)
This category will likely swing to whichever show is the favorite of the night. If we had to guess, we’d bet on The Visit, just because Japhy Weideman is the one with previous nominations who’s yet to win a Tony. And The Visit’s lighting was good, even if not much else was.
Will Win: Japhy Weideman (The Visit)
Might Win: Natasha Katz (An American in Paris)
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Paule Constable, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time – previously won for War Horse, previously nominated for Coram Boy and The Cripple of Inismaan
Paule Constable and David Plater, Wolf Hall
Natasha Katz, Skylight – (also nominated for An American in Paris)
Japhy Weideman, Airline Highway (also nominated for The Visit)
It’s usually not helpful to be doubly nominated in a category, as that tends to split the vote of one’s supporters. So at first glance, that would be a strike against Paule Constable. However, there is no arguing against the lighting of Curious Incident, which makes the stage look like a painted masterpiece every second of the show. Curious Incident has deservedly won the OCC and the Drama Desk, and will assuredly add the Tony to complete the set.
Will Win: Paule Constable (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Might Win: No one else
Should Win: Paule Constable
Best Book of a Musical:
Craig Lucas, An American in Paris – previously nominated for The Light in the Piazza
Lisa Kron, Fun Home
Karey Kirkpatrick and John O’Farrell, Something Rotten!
Terence McNally, The Visit – two previous wins for Kiss of the Spiderwoman and Ragtime; previously nominated for The Full Monty; two wins for Best Play
Best Book usually goes to the worst book (see: Matilda and Once), so the best way to predict is to think about which show’s book needs the most work. By that reasoning, Fun Home should win this award hands down, since Lisa Kron did a very poor job adapting Alison Bechdel’s memoir. Nothing is known to this writer about An American in Paris’s book, but if that show is deemed Best Musical, it might get this award thrown in as a bonus.
The Visit’s book is actually one of its better aspects, and Terence McNally is one of only six people to have won this award twice already. However, McNally is still a busy playwright and frequently produces original work, so he does not get the “give it now or never” sentiment that Chita Rivera and Kander and Ebb are enjoying. Something Rotten! has an incredibly clever book, full of very inventive allusions and witty dialogue, but having a good book is rarely a harbinger of winning the Tony.
Will Win: Lisa Kron (Fun Home)
Might Win: Craig Lucas (An American in Paris)
Should Win: Karey Kirkpatrick and John O’Farrell (Something Rotten!)
Best Original Score:
Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home – four previous nominations for Tesori
Sting, The Last Ship
Wayne Kirkpatrick and Karey Kirkpatrick, Something Rotten!
John Kander and Fred Ebb, The Visit – previously won for Kiss of the Spider Woman, Woman of the Year, and Cabaret; seven other previous nominations
Quite the race for Best Score: a batch of newbies facing off against one of the most iconic pairs of composers in musical theatre. For the Kirkpatricks, Sting, and Lisa Kron, this is the first musical they’ve ever written. On the one hand, Tony voters may want to honor Kander and Ebb with one last Tony – since Ebb passed away in 2004, this is their absolute last chance. Most of the recognition The Visit received is a swan song for the parties involved. However, Kander and Ebb have received no shortage of Tonys, and their music for The Visit is exceedingly lackluster. So the Tonys may look to the fresh faces to bestow the award upon.
There is no reason to celebrate the score for Fun Home, which was not memorable in the slightest. Tony voters seem utterly starstruck by Sting and The Last Ship, and this is their chance to show their appreciation, so Sting could potentially be a Tony winner after Sunday. The only thing working against it is the fact that the show closed five months ago, which becomes but a distant memory in Tony voters’ minds. A closed musical has won this award only once this century: last year, when Bridges of Madison County closed three weeks before the Tonys, and even that was open for some time after nominations were announced. So the most likely candidate in this category is Something Rotten! The music itself is decent, but the utterly brilliant lyrics of the songs put it over the edge and make it the best score of the bunch.
Will Win: Wayne Kirkpatrick and Karey Kirkpatrick (Something Rotten!)
Might Win: John Kander and Fred Ebb (The Visit)
Should Win: Wayne Kirkpatrick and Karey Kirkpatrick
Best Orchestrations
Christopher Austin, Don Sebesky, and Bill Elliott, An American in Paris –
· Sebesky previously won for Kiss Me Kate; previously nominated for Parade and The Life
· Elliot previously nominated for Nice Work if You Can Get It
John Clancy, Fun Home – previously nominated for Shrek
Larry Hochman, Something Rotten! – previously won for Book of Mormon; four other prior nominations
Rob Mathes, The Last Ship
Orchestration is a somewhat difficult category to predict, given casual theatregoers’ limited understanding of what constitutes good orchestration. There is a good chance this award will just follow the Best Musical winner. Tony voters’ fondness for The Last Ship is negated by the fact that they’ve probably forgotten about it long ago, and likely won’t give it to Rob Mathes. John Clancy is a good orchestrator, but according to a savvy friend, his work on Fun Home is “middling.” While we root for Something Rotten!, An American in Paris won the Drama Desk, making it a likelier winner.
Will Win: Christopher Austin, Don Sebesky, and Bill Elliott (An American in Paris)
Might Win: Larry Hochman (Something Rotten!)
Should Win: Larry Hochman
Final Predictions:
Curious Incident: 5
Something Rotten: 3
An American in Paris: 3
The King and I: 3
Fun Home: 2
On the Twentieth Century: 2
You Can’t Take It With You: 2
The Audience: 2
The Visit: 1
Wolf Hall: 1