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strategies. 3 Implementation issues. 3.1 Potential ex ante and ex post strategies The ex ante strategies include prevention, preparedness and investments in response capability, while the ex post strategies can be categorised into response and recovery activities. Some strategies such as surveillance and detection can be used both ex ante and ex post. Risk assessment and management of animal disease-related biosecurity 7 3.1.1 Ex ante strategies: prevention and preparedness In general, ex ante strategies can be undertaken to reduce the probability of a successful biological threat and to reduce costs by enhancing the preparedness and response capacities. Prevention includes, but is not limited to, activities such as restricting access to biological agents, protecting critical points along the supply chain, increasing security measures and monitoring of products at facilities. The 2004 US Homeland Security Presidential Directive-9 mandated a number of prevention measures to defend the agriculture and food systems against both intentional and unintentional disease outbreaks. These included expanding disease surveillance and monitoring systems, continuing vulnerability assessments and developing a national veterinary stockpile. The first strategy can be also used as a response action. Further, activities undertaken to improve the forecast of the likelihood and consequences of events such as intelligence gathering are also a part of ex ante strategies. Ex ante preparedness actions include investments in response capability/infrastructure, action plan development and any other activities which would enhance society’s preparedness. Adequate preparedness allows for timely response actions limiting disease spread and mitigating damages, plus it facilitates recovery. Potential preparedness investment activities include training of response personnel, stocking equipment for response, developing capability to identify, trace and destroy contaminated food and livestock, management of consequences including aiding the affected population, and so forth. For example, Becker (2005) argues that a key preparedness strategy against infectious animal disease outbreaks, the US National Animal ID System for the purpose of livestock disease tracking, which is currently based on voluntary participation by the producers, will ultimately need to have full compliance for the system to work effectively. 3.1.2 Ex post strategies: response and recovery After proper identification of the pathogens and confirmation of animal disease outbreak, the immediate objective is to curb the disease spread and minimise consequences of the disease on agriculture and national economy. To achieve this objective, appropriate and timely response and recovery strategies are needed. Response actions involve immediate implementation of the previously designed contingency plans such as diagnosis, disinfection, slaughter and destruction of infected animals, and so forth. Breeze (2004) outlines a likely scenario for US FMD outbreak response. A sample from the suspect animals will be sent to the Plum Island Foreign Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory. While the sample is being examined, the affected herd and others in the immediate vicinity or with recent contact will be strictly quarantined. Once the virus is confirmed, the affected herd as well as herds within a radius of up to 3 km and herds with direct contact will be killed. Authorities will keep on quarantining herds, restricting animal movements, slaughtering and disposing of diseased animals until the disease is eradicated. Disposal of contaminated animal carcasses is a complex and key part of disease control and management requiring a substantial amount of ex ante preparation in terms of identifying disposal sites, methods and logistics. There are various technologies that may be employed to dispose of contaminated animal carcasses, including burial, incineration, composting, rendering, lactic acid fermentation, alkaline hydrolysis and anaerobic 8 Y. Jin, B.A. McCarl and L. Elbakidze digestion (NABCC, 2004). The choice of disposal method largely depends on the event size, disposal capacity, cost and effectiveness along with other factors. Disposal facilities can be constructed and located before an outbreak occurs. However, such facilities can be expensive and typically have limited capacity. Ex ante establishment of massive disposal capacity may be difficult to justify given the infrequency of major outbreaks. Currently existing disposal capacities are likely to be inadequate for a massive slaughter and disposal of contaminated animals as evidenced by the UK 2001 FMD case (NAO, 2002). Furthermore, when it comes to deliberate animal disease outbreaks, response actions also include capturing the perpetrators. When a zoonotic disease is introduced to animal agriculture, a special action for public health needs to be undertaken (Cupp, Walker and Hillison, 2004). Recovery entails restoring the system to pre-event condition which requires rebuilding consumer confidence, resuming agricultural production and re-opening local, national and international businesses. Farmers whose livestock are depopulated will receive compensation (Kuchler and Hamm, 2000). Recovery issues also involve businesses caught in quarantine zones or affected by movement bans, farmers outside the affected areas who face market and trade disruptions, consumers who lost confidence in food safety, and trade embargos. Measures need to be undertaken to restore the public’s confidence and support of the government. Restoring public confidence may be especially important in the case of a deliberate event. Not only do the perpetrators need to be captured and disarmed, but also the public needs to be convinced that the threat has been eliminated and no further attacks are expected. Communication strategies are a key part of overall response and recovery strategies. Nayga et al. (2004) argue that the media has two fundamental roles to play: informing the public about the incident and facilitating restoration of lost consumer confidence. There are many studies investigating public information related to