Jillian Vacha is part of an organization called the Junior Economic Club of Atlanta, and she writes articles about current economic events for the International Junior Economist on Medium. She recently wrote one titled, “The K-shaped Economic Recovery of the US”.

The K-shaped economic recovery of the US

What does a “K-shaped” recovery even mean?

JEC ATLANTA — When discussing the recovery of the economy in the United States, especially after the devastating effects of the pandemic, we refer to what we believe will happen with a letter — a K or a V. You might recognize this from the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Chris Wallace asked each candidate if the US is in a k-shaped or v-shaped recovery. Trump responded with v-shaped, and Biden with k-shaped. The K-shape means that the rich recover faster than everyone else, and the V-shape means that the entire economy will simply rise back up to where it was before the downturn (in this case the pandemic-spurred recession). We’ve seen the recovery process continue to unfold since November. According to CBS News, a poll by AP-NORC that took place February 25 till March 1 showed that approximately half of Americans have suffered at least one type of loss in household income. This sample was drawn from the AmeriSpeak Panel by NORC, which is considered to be representative of the US population, with a margin of error of 3.4%.

How does it play out for various groups of people?

Many politicians and economists are labeling our current restoration process as k-shaped. This is due to the fact that many wealthy, white-collar workers and those who are able to invest in the stock market have become even richer, while those with lower-earning jobs still struggle to afford fundamental necessities. The contrast is even greater among African-American workers. Since February 2021, Asian, Latino, and White unemployment rates have all dropped (by 1.5%, 0.1%, and 0.1%, respectively). However, the unemployment rate for Blacks went up by 0.5%, from 9.2% to 9.7% (Tappe, 2021). According to Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor, it also revealed the disparity in jobless rates between racial groups even before the pandemic, as it stood at 6% for Black workers in February 2020, though for whites, it was 5.6% just last month. As the jobless rate for Blacks before the effects of the pandemic is only .4% away from the jobless rates for Whites in March 2021, this reveals a serious disparity.

How does it vary among fields?

As seen in the graphic, not only are their variances between race and income, but in fields. Jobs that suffered the most during the pandemic, such as travel and entertainment see more damage than jobs that continued on without a hitch, like in technology and software services. The difference in racial groups between types of jobs could be another indication of racial disparity.

How could public policy impact the recovery?

Additionally, the stimulus that Congress approved and President Biden signed into law is going to put large sums of money into the hands of average Americans. This will most certainly have an impact on consumer spending, which accounts for more than 70% of the US GDP, according to Kimberly Amadeo, writer for The Balance, a financial newsletter (gross domestic product — the total value of goods and services produced in a given year by a certain country). Last year, when the pandemic first hit, according to CBS News, the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses provided loans to those who had lost their jobs. This led to workers investing in their businesses and being able to support themselves as the economy began to recover in the summer.

What could happen in the future?

As we watch the recovery of the U.S. continue to unfold as time goes on, vaccines roll out in waves, and the country gets back on its feet, we will see if the K-shape continues, or if we move forward in a different direction. As seen in The Denver Channel, Jonathan Drapkin, CEO and President of Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress, said the recovery had a W-shape, meaning the economy went down and back up, fluctuating. Elise Gould with the Economic Policy Institute said there was an L-shape, meaning the economy went down, and we cannot know where it will go from there. The economy can be unpredictable, especially after an incredibly rare event like a pandemic. In the meantime, we are simply forced to observe.

Works Cited

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/economy-k-shaped-recovery-covid-pandemic-impact-uneven/

https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/americas-v-shaped-vs-k-shaped-economic-recovery-what-does-it-all-mean/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-10/how-a-k-shaped-recovery-is-widening-u-s-inequality-quicktake

In response to this poem, Keira Olds wrote the following poem about digital learning from the perspective of a student.

March 17, 2021

HYBRID TEACHING THROUGH THE EYES OF A DIGITAL STUDENT

by Keira Olds

I

The bus rumbles past my house.

The only sound

Except for the clang of my spoon

Against my bowl.

II

“Your high CPU usage is affecting the meeting quality.”

Too many tabs.

“Your Internet connection is unstable.”

Yet I’m the only one using it.

III

I type a response in the chat.

One second. Two seconds. Reread.

Close my eyes.

Press enter.

IV

“They’re all probably cheating.”

A flicker of annoyance.

It dies.

My pride is done

Being wounded.

V

The laugh of an in-person kid

Seems to mock me.

I haven’t laughed

Since yesterday.

VI

Lunch is filling.

A pro

Of being digital.

One of a dwindling few.

VII

She’s sharing her screen.

Now it’s easier to pretend

That everyone

Has their videos on.

Not just four.

VIII

I’m a digital kid.

A name. My grades.

Maybe a face.

But nothing more.

Yet I’m fine with it.

I have to be.