Climate change is costly. Despite some nations’ embrace of renewable energy sources, energy policies in Zemia are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. In this event, we fast-forward a few decades and begin to see the impacts of this dependence. This leads to the likely outcomes of either “low warming” or “moderate warming” and their related environmental and economic impacts (See attached file “Climate Change_Data impacts”). Some nations will also experience random climate crises (droughts, hurricanes, wild fires, etc.). In this event, nations will negotiate (or thwart) one or more international Climate Change agreements.
General Objective options: 1) Establish specific emission reduction plans and pay related costs to reduce global CO2 emissions. OR 2) Avoid or thwart agreements on emissions reductions and pay the costs related low- or moderate-warming impacts.
Each nation can earn up 5 points depending on their self-identified objective (e.g., one nation might want to pass an agreement, another nation might think the global warming impacts are acceptable economically), the nation’s stability, and the nation’s ideology.
Here are a few general principles related to event points, probability of future climate impacts, and resources:
See this linked GoogleSheet (“Climate Change_Data Impacts” Emissions worksheets) for energy data for each nation/group. Currently, Zemia produces 212,625 CO2 tons annually and is on track to experience moderate climate change impacts. Collectively, Zemian groups must reduce emissions by 107,190 tons to minimize climate-related costs to “low impact.”
All nation/groups must continue to meet their citizens’ energy needs (i.e., no deficit between production and consumption, with the exception of small nations which can have -1 and -2 deficits). Each group can reduce their need for energy by implementing significant and specific “austerity” measures. For example, a nation could reduce energy consumption by 10-30% if they implement tax penalties on businesses or urban areas who use fossil fuels. By reducing consumption, nations could close more power plants.
The costs related to building or shutting down power plants are shown in the “Policy costs_ Impacts" worksheet. Primarily, we charge teams Materials (so now that commodity is valuable). If there are not enough Material units in Zemia, I will consider selling Materials (200ER each). The cost sheet also notes health and employment impacts. Nations that negatively impact these measures will lose "Stability" points. I am also open to additional suggestions for policies not shown on the cost sheet; please suggest relative impacts.
Nations with surplus materials or energy can help other nations build green power plants and/or shut down fossil fuel plants.
If nations sign an agreement that reduces Zemia’s total carbon emissions by 50% (107,190 CO2 tons), then the Climate Change impacts will only be “low warming” not “moderate warming.” This agreement must include specific pledges for reductions by signatories (e.g., coal plant closure). See the linked file’s “Low-Moderate Economic Costs” worksheet for the impacts on economic and military resources for low- and moderate-global warming).
Main data file: Climate Change_Data Impacts
Excerpts from "Zemia Emissions" worksheet (cell AR31):
Current emissions total: 212,625 CO2 tons
Target emissions total (for “low impact”): 105,435 tons
Necessary reductions: 107,190 tons