In Search of Millennium (追尋千禧)

追 尋 千 禧

In Search of Millennium

～ 在下一個千年中一個國家更好的生存策略 ～

隨著冷戰的結束，資本主義與民族主義戲劇性的獲得了全面的勝利，而這二個以和平為基礎的主義正穩健地、逐步地帶領著人 類邁向「地球村」及「世界統一」的千禧願景。然而，在這同時，現實面上種族間不停的紛爭，政經面上持續不斷的衝突，至今仍然沒有適當的解決方案，再加上自 然資源日益枯竭以及人口仍舊持續上昇，這些現實將促使國際間必須互相競爭，方能獲得更大的生存空間；而隨著廿一世紀的到來，這些競爭必將更加白熱化，因 此，在進入廿一世紀時，各國間相競提出「雙贏」的策略，共存共榮的理念之時，現實面上我們可以肯定的是各國也必會在暗底下暗自較勁，各出奇招來提升本國的 競爭優勢，也因此在廿一世紀，國與國之間的競爭將會提升到另一個我們無法想像的層次。

在此同時，我們也將深入人類第三層次的文明——資訊文明。資訊文明與工業文明最大的不同處是：在工業文明、一個國家的 優勢決定於其所擁有的自然資源儲存量；換句話、雄厚的自然資源會決定國家本身的競爭力。但在資訊文明，我們認知到一個國家的競爭力將不再取決於它所擁有自 然資源的多寡，而取決在於其人民的基本知識水準；也因此，現今各界廣泛認同，一個國家最終的競爭優勢勢必決定於她最珍貴的自然資源——她的人民的身上。基 於此點，由於一個國家的人民本身的知識水準、思考的層次取決於本身整個教育制度的有效性、效率與實用度，因而一個國家的教育制度也理所當然地將決定在仍未 到達「地球村」與「世界統一」的境界前、在下一個千年時與他國的相互間之競爭優勢。換言之，一個國家的教育制度、人民本身的知識水準會決定其於下個世紀中 在國際間相互的地位與權力的浮沉。

因此，在我們追尋千禧的同時，我們也被強迫來尋找於下一個千年中，一個國家更好的生存策略，但，什麼是更好的生存策略？

進化論告訴我們在自然界的生存中有兩種非常不同的生存策略——「ｒ」和「Ｋ」。何謂「ｒ」策略？「ｒ」策略為智商較高 或較靈敏的高等動物所運用，它的策略為此些高等動物所繁殖之後代每次皆只有少數，但對於後代的育養相當專注、用心，確定使其後代都能發展得相當完好，即是 所謂的「ｒ」策略。至於「Ｋ」策略，則能於較低等、較不聰慧的動物間發現，他們於傳宗接代的速度相當迅速且每次皆大量地、成千上萬地繁殖，但產下此些後代 後即不再理會，任其自生自滅；雖環境惡劣，但因數量繁多，總能有少數僥倖存活下來；簡而言之、此些低等動物憑藉著成熟快速，繁殖量大，而產生「數大」的氣 勢來取勝。

這兩種策略雖然非常之不同，但從進化的角度來看，都已證明是非常有效且實用的、成功的生存策略。但是這兩種策略那一個 是比較實用、比較有效率、更好的策略？在我們面臨一個變化快速的時代，且變化大都是破壞性時，很多人會認為「Ｋ」策略似乎是更好的策略，以傳宗接代快速的 速度、眾多的數量來取勝，但它真的是較佳的策略嗎？似乎仍有待證明。

很明顯地台灣現前經濟模型就是以「Ｋ」系列為軸，我們以非常快的速度蘊釀中小企業，一代又一代，以數量來取勝；反觀日 本及韓國，對於企業的長成非常謹慎地選擇，重質不重量。若「Ｋ」策略真的是較佳的策略，在今日我們的確面臨一系列持續不斷、摧毀性的變化時，以此觀之， 「Ｋ」策略若真的是較好的策略，我們的教育必定是最好的，制度也是最完善的，那麼我們又需要向德國學習什麼呢？

「Ｋ」策略真的是一個更好的策略嗎？在德國我們可以驚訝的觀察到他們已延用兩世紀以上的雙軌教育系統，在過去劇烈變化 的時代中居然沒有受到亞當斯密所提出現代經濟的工作架構或工業革命與文明的影響。在今日再一次面對一系列破壞性的變化時，我們不得不感到非常的驚奇與訝 異，今日德國不僅教育系統，甚至她的整個政經系統全仍強烈地依賴其傳統的製造工業。能夠有一個強而有力的製造工業可依靠當然是每一個國家所羨慕與嫉妒的， 但從另一個角度來看，德國如此盲目的依靠傳統製造業來維持其政經霸權的同時，也盲目的將能夠提早進入下一波文明的良好機會拱手讓人。就在進入下一個資訊文 明時，我們也不得不懷疑這一個在傳統產業的優勢也可能會變成歷史包袱，一個昂貴、難以負擔的權利。

無論如何，今日德國仍然是先進國家中最具有競爭力之一，更是很多國家的學習榜樣。在觀測德國的教育系統之時，「ｒ」策 略在前二個世紀德國歷史一系列破壞性的變化之中，成功地證明了「ｒ」策略是一個實際、實用且有效率的策略。反觀以「Ｋ」策略存留下來的國家，這些國家在今 日仍為找到本身的尊嚴與在國際權力的競爭中泥淖深陷，無法自拔。

因此我們必須再一次提出這個問題——究竟哪一個策略是更好的生存策略？在進入下一個世紀時，哪一個策略會帶領我們在國 際的舞台上獲取競爭優勢？在我們尋求下一個千年中更好的國家生存策略及追尋千禧的同時，我們必須仔細的考慮、深思。

蘇格拉底曾說過：「我唯一知道的一件事就是我什麼都不知道。」

仔細的觀察基本的元素間的相互關係，我必須指出我們正又處在一個「最好也是最壞的年代」，「一個最佳與最差的時刻」，此 時，一個社會需要一個勇敢的領導者，也因此我僅能轉向上帝祈求：「請賜給我們一位有智慧的人，來帶領我們追尋千禧。」

In Search of Millennium

A Better Survival Strategy of Nations in Coming Millenium

Peter CHEN, Ph.D.

As mankind marches toward building a “Global Village” and a ”Unified Oneness”, the reality of limited resources and the presence of world economic-political instability will continue to force nations to compete against one another and this competition will most certainly intensify as we enter the next millenium. While each nation is promoting cooperative strategy, each will also focus on elevating its competitive advantage and the degree of competition will therefore rise to a whole new level. As we enter the information civilization with this love-and-hate relationship, it has been publicly recognized and agreed that the ultimate competitive advantage of a nation will depend on, and perhaps only on, its most precious resource that of its follow citizens. With this, the efficiency and the effectiveness of the educational system of a nation will consequently determined its ultimate competitiveness in this still-not-unified global village and the raise and fall of powers may become an inevitable results.

Therefore, in search of the Millennium, we are forced, instead, to search for “A Better Survival Strategy of Nations in Coming Millenium”. What is then a better strategy!

The evolution has educated and revealed to us two survival strategies, the r and K. The “r” strategy, which is found only in higher and more intelligent living species, shown its survival by producing only few decedents; then, nurturing these few decedents carefully to make ascertain that they are able to proper well in future. The “K” strategy, which is commonly used among lower species, demonstrated its strength to survive by bearing massive or almost infinite siblings and reproducing at very fast rate. Both strategies have proven to be successful. The questions remained are which of these is better especially during a time of destructive “Change”, which is more effective? The academic community has commonly agreed and recognized that the “K” strategy to be a better survival technique during an era of destructive change. But, is it really is? This still waits to be proven. Otherwise it is only clear that the “K” strategy is the answer as what the evolution has exhibited. Given these and that today we are truly witnessing a series of “destructive” changes, why should Taiwan, whose economic structural strategy is obviously a K a-like strategy, try to learn from Germany.

But, then is K really a better strategy? In examining the dual educational system of Germany, on can not stop to not be fascinated by the fact that the work structure enlightened by Adam Smith's modem economy and the great movement toward industrial civilization seems to have not distracted the educational system of Germany, a system which can be traced back to two centuries ago. And, today, again witnessing a series of “destructive” changes, we can not stop to not be fascinated by the fact that a great degree of German's system is heavily pivoting on its strength in its traditional legacy manufacturing industry. This is, most certainly, an envy of most nations. But, one must also be astonished and perhaps sympathized about the opportunities that it is missing and concern that this strength might later become a privilege too expensive to afford as it degraded rapidly into a burden. Nevertheless, today, Germany is certainly still one of the most competitive developed nation perhaps even a role model for many nations. In referencing to the status of Germany today, the “r” strategy has proven itself to be effective in surviving a series of “destructive” changes. In comparison, those survived by adopting the “K” strategy are still trying to found its self-esteem and advance its position in global power ranking.

Hence, we must ask and question again, which is indeed a better strategy? Which will better lead us entering the next century? What then can we learn from this and what can we do as we search for a better survival strategy for nations in coming millenium and in search of Millennium. I sat back and wondered, and wondered!

As Socrates once said, “One thing I know is that I know of nothing” but, looking into the fundamentals and the basics, I must acclaim that we are again at “the best and the worst of time”. It is at this time that the society needs a strong one and therefore I can only pray to God, “be there a wise one that will guide us In Search of Millennium”.