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1999 saw Virginia Republicans gain their first-ever elected majority in the state Senate, albeit a narrow 21-19 majority.

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After a close election in 1997 left the Virginia House of Delegates functionally tied*, both parties were looking to gain a majority in the chamber in 1999. In the end, Republicans ultimately gained their first-ever elected majority that year, in part through their victory in HD-30. 

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In 2001, Republicans expanded their majority in Virginia's House of Delegates by 12 seats, flipping many rural and suburban seats. One of those was Southwest Virginia's 5th District.

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In 2001, Republicans were able to expand their majority in Virginia's House of Delegates by 12 seats, flipping many rural and suburban seats. However, one seat they failed to flip was District 99, located in Virginia's Northern Neck. Incumbent Albert Pollard, a conservative Democrat first elected in 1999, won re-election in a landslide, defeating Republican Ronald Webb by over 20 points. Pollard's victory came only a year after George W. Bush won every county in the Northern Neck region, the first to do so since his father's election 12 years prior in 1988. Yet, Pollard was able to hold on to his seat, and would continue to do so until his unsuccessful run for State Senate in 2005. However, after Pollard's successor, Rob Wittman (R), was elected to Congress in 2008, Pollard won his old seat in a special election and held it until 2011, when he retired. As of 2025, Pollard is the last Democrat to hold this seat. 

While US electoral history is full of shocking wins and upset victories, perhaps no result was as unexpected as the results of VA-07's Republican primary in 2014. That election saw then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), who had represented the Richmond-based 7th district since 2000, challenged by Tea Party candidate David Brat, an economics professor from Randolph-Macon College. Cantor had drawn the ire of some conservatives for expressing support for immigration reform, as well as his more establishment shift as he became part of Republican leadership, which Brat picked up on as he campaigned to Cantor's right. However, the primary was never expected to be close, as Cantor outspent his opponent 50:1 and had internal polling showing him up by 30%. Additionally, unlike other Tea-Party backed challengers, Brat's candidacy did not have the support of national conservative organizations, with Politico describing Brat as having "little chance of upsetting Cantor,". However, on election night, Brat defeated Cantor by over 10%, with Cantor becoming the first ever House Majority leader to lose a primary. Brat successfully painted Cantor as insufficiently conservative and more focused on personal ambition than representing the district, which combined with Brat's notable enthusiasm advantage, as well as the support of far-right media personalities like Laura Ingraham, allowed him to become a political "Giant Slayer" and end Cantor's political career. 

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In recent years, the number of competitive congressional districts has significantly declined, with one of these being Virginia's 5th district. While the last Democrat elected to represent the district was Tom Perriello in 2008, Democrats came close to winning the district in both 2018 and 2020, giving some hope it could potentially flip. While redistricting made it the most competitive Republican-held district at the time, favoring Republicans by a solid, but not insurmountable, 7.8%, any Democratic dreams of flipping the seat were shattered in 2022. As Republicans narrowly flipped control of the House, far-right Republican Bob Good won re-election to a second term in a landslide. While Good's tenure was short-lived, as he lost the 2024 primary to Trump-endorsed State Senator John McGuire, the fifth remained solidly Republican as McGuire won by 15%. With Trump winning the district by 12.3% in the concurrent presidential election, as well as the favorable rural trends towards Republicans, Democrats face a very steep climb if they aim to flip the 5th. This district was dismantled, however, following Virginia's mid-decade redistricting in 2026. 

In June 2025, Democrats selected their nominee to go against Incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R). Unlike the Lieutenant Gov. primary, which had six candidates, only two candidates vied for Attorney General: former state delegate and DC assistant attorney Jay Jones (who lost the primary in 2021) and Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor. On election day, Jones narrowly won the primary, likely boosted by ethical concerns surrounding Taylor accepting $650,000 in donations from Dominion Energy, which the Attorney General regulates. However, Taylor was able to narrowly win her home territory of the Richmond Metropolitan Area*. While Jones did best south of the Tri-Cities and managed to narrowly win Chesterfield County and the City of Richmond, it wasn't enough to overcome Taylor's 20-point blowout win in Henrico County. Going into the election, with polling showing Jones with a solid lead over the incumbent Miyares despite the latter's heavy cash & spending advantages, Jones is heavily favored to be Virginia's next Attorney General. However, I, like some others, think Miyares is Republican's best (and at this point only) shot at winning statewide, but with the decline of ticket splitting and Spanberger's victory being only a question of "by how much?", I don't think Miyares' overperformance will save him.

While Virginia Republicans had no statewide primary this year, they did have a few legislative primaries. One of those was in HD-62, which saw Clay Jackson, Chair of the Madison County Board of Supervisors, run against Karen Hamilton, a small business owner, following incumbent Nick Freitas' (R) retirement. During the campaign, both candidates highlighted their "small-government" philosophy, with Hamilton advocating for "some sort of a DOGE thing" in Virginia. However, there were significant differences, as Jackson touted his local government experience and issues facing the district (such as need for greater funding), while Hamilton focused on culture-war issues such as parental rights and abortion while (ironically) claiming her experience "as a mother" allowed her to be more in tune with household issues. In the end, Hamilton's message won out, with her defeating Jackson by over 16%. Jackson won only in his home of Madison County, while Hamilton swept everywhere else. 

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

Further Analysis Coming Soon!