With a deteriorating situation in Iraq and the Great Recession in full swing, Republicans found themselves in a tough spot going into 2008. However, when Roger Wicker resigned his House seat in MS-01 to fill a vacant Senate seat, few expected the ensuing special election to deliver Republicans a defeat. After all, while northeastern Mississippi was still friendly to conservative Democrats locally, it had been drifting Republican in federal elections for quite some time. As such, it came as a shock when Travis Childers, a local Democratic official in Prentiss County, defeated Greg Davis (R), mayor of Southaven, in the special election. Analysts pointed to Davis' ineffective attack ads against Childers, as well as Davis' suburban background failing to appeal to more rural voters. However, Davis had another chance in November, where the two would face off yet again. However, Davis once again made the same mistakes, trying to portray the conservative Childers as a liberal while Childer attacked him as a blind party-loyalist. As such, Davis' efforts to unseat Childers were unsuccessful, losing by an even greater margin in November.

Yet, Childers' win was not replicated on the top of the ticket, as the district retained its conservative lean on the presidential level even with the blue environment. Indeed, Obama lost the district by over 23%, with McCain trouncing him among rural and suburban white voters—many of whom had supported Childers over Davis. Notably, despite northeastern Mississippi's temporary reversion back to Democrats locally in the House, it was one of the few regions of the country where Obama did significantly worse than John Kerry (D) four years prior. Ultimately, those trends would win out over the region's ancestral-Democratic lean, as only two years later, Childers lost re-election to State Senator Alan Nunnelee (R) by 15%. As such, Childer's win marks the last time a Democrat won MS-01, with 2010 marking the last time a Republican received less than 60% of the vote. Given the sharp rightward swing of many rural voters in the Trump era, it will likely be a long time before another Democrat replicates Childers' success. 

Further Analysis Coming Soon!